Topic: 2009 OFFICIAL FRENCH OPEN THREAD - ATP

[sid]

Is Monfils fit & playing RG,i thought he was not going 2 be fit?

(If Roddick gets by him, he’ll have his hands full with Monfils)

[tain316]

Is Monfils fit & playing RG,i thought he was not going 2 be fit?

(If Roddick gets by him, he’ll have his hands full with Monfils)

Last I heard, Monfils said he was trying to take as much time to recover from his knee injury.  He has asked the tournament officials for the latest possible start date for his first match which would be Tuesday.  Haven't heard anything since.  I have seen some recent practice pictures of him on one of the courts in Roland Garros (maybe Chatrier?) so that is a good sign I would say.  He played very well last year and it would be nice to have him back at his home event. 

[Dallas]

This is why (sadly for me) I think Nadal will win another French Open:

Story Highlights
Rafael Nadal has never lost a match at the French and has dropped just eight sets.


(But I'll still be pulling 100% for Roger!)...Go Roger!!!!!!!!

[sid]

Is Monfils fit & playing RG,i thought he was not going 2 be fit?

(If Roddick gets by him, he’ll have his hands full with Monfils)

Last I heard, Monfils said he was trying to take as much time to recover from his knee injury.  He has asked the tournament officials for the latest possible start date for his first match which would be Tuesday.  Haven't heard anything since.  I have seen some recent practice pictures of him on one of the courts in Roland Garros (maybe Chatrier?) so that is a good sign I would say.  He played very well last year and it would be nice to have him back at his home event. 

Thx on monfils,fingers crossed he plays.

[Bundey]

Who would you guys say has the best draw out of the top 4?  I don't think Fed could have dreamt of a better quarter, however he does have Djokovic on his side.  I'd say Nadal has the worst quarter, but not having Djokovic on his side would make his draw favorable to Fed's because even Verdasco, Ferrer, Davydenko, Almagro, and Wawrinka shouldn't be huge threats to take him in a best of five setter.  So best quarter is Fed, best half is Nadal.

[Dallas]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.
 

[sid]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.
 

Dallas Nadal has bad blisters on his hands,just maybe Nadal has played to much tennis of late.I will be keeping a close eye on him @ RG,like most others i think he will win @ RG.

[tain316]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.
 

Yes, Rafa has pretty favorable records against all of them.  However, who in the draw doesn't he have a favorable record with?  In general, opponents like Ferrer, Verdasco, Davydenko (when healthy) are pretty tough opponents especially on clay.  So all things being equal, no matter which section of the draw they landed on, it would be a tough draw for any top player.  Also, you can never take anything for granted.  You have to look one match at a time because you never know what can happen.  If you take things for granted such as counting on having a great record, an upset is certainly possible.  As you have said before, "that's why they play the game."

[tain316]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.
 

Dallas Nadal has bad blisters on his hands,just maybe Nadal has played to much tennis of late.I will be keeping a close eye on him @ RG,like most others i think he will win @ RG.

Sid, having blisters on your hands especially if you are a tennis player is pretty commonplace.  Actually, Rafa has had certain parts of his fingers taped for a good part of the season and this would be due to those blisters you speak of.  I haven't heard any negative things said about them from Rafa so I am pretty sure he is fine.  Anyways, if the blisters were like the ones on his feet in Rome last year, then I would be pretty concerned. 

[Babblelot]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.

I ain't buying. Who is actually likely to beat him? Not Ferrer or Murray. Verdasco? Davydenko? Not likely. So why get all exited over guys like Wawrinka.

Djokovic has two legit contenders on his side in Del Potro and Federer. Robredo has as good a chance at beating Djokovic or Federer as those other guys have at beating Nadal. If he's fit, Monfils is a dangerous floater.

So on the top half it's Nadal and Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro and a fit Monfils on the bottom half.

[Dallas]

See... who said Nadal has a tougher quarter.  Look at his record against those in his quarter:

Nadal, who has never lost in 45 career best-of-five clay court matches, opens the tournament against qualifier Marcos Daniel and his second round opponent will be either Russian Igor Kunitsyn or Teimuraz Gabashvili. The first seed Nadal could meet is No. 26 Ivo Karlovic in the third round (Nadal leads 2-0). Karlovic has a tough first round assignment against former two-time ATP World Tour Champion Lleyton Hewitt (Karlovic leads 3-0). In the fourth round, Nadal's possible seeded opponents are No. 14 David Ferrer (Nadal leads 7-3) or No. 23 Robin Soderling (Nadal leads 3-0). In the quarter-finals, Nadal could meet No. 8 Fernando Verdasco (Nadal leads 9-0), No. 10 Nikolay Davydenko (Nadal leads 4-2), No. 17 Stanislas Wawrinka (Nadal leads 4-0)   or No. 31 Nicolas Almagro (Nadal leads 3-0).

I would say that all the other players have the 'hard' draw... Nadal will probably breeze to the final like he has the last 4 years or so.

I ain't buying. Who is actually likely to beat him? Not Ferrer or Murray. Verdasco? Davydenko? Not likely. So why get all exited over guys like Wawrinka.

Djokovic has two legit contenders on his side in Del Potro and Federer. Robredo has as good a chance at beating Djokovic or Federer as those other guys have at beating Nadal. If he's fit, Monfils is a dangerous floater.

So on the top half it's Nadal and Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro and a fit Monfils on the bottom half.

That's my point.  I don't think anyone will beat him.  Not Ferrer or Murray or Verdasco or Davydenko...no one. Period.

[Bundey]

Okay well if you look at the ranked players in Federer's quarter you see that Federer is 18-2 vs [6] Roddick 1-0 on clay.  3-1 vs [27] Schuettler, with a lost in 2002.  He hasn't face [24] Melzer.  He is 4-0 vs [11] Monfils, 2-0 on clay.  He is 9-1 vs [15] Blake and 1-0 on clay.  He is 8-1 vs [19] Berdych, 2-0 on clay.  He is 3-0 vs [32] Mathieu, 1-0 on clay.  Well, if you look at it Federer has dominated the ranked opponents in his quarter just as much as Nadal has the ranked opponents in his quarter.  The only difference is that the ranked players in Nadals quarter are great on clay courts, but the players in Federer's are generally really bad on clay.  Nadal without a doubt has the worst overall quarter, but best overall draw.  

[Babblelot]

Okay well if you look at the ranked players in Federer's quarter you see that Federer is 18-2 vs [6] Roddick 1-0 on clay.  3-1 vs [27] Schuettler, with a lost in 2002.  He hasn't face [24] Melzer.  He is 4-0 vs [11] Monfils, 2-0 on clay.  He is 9-1 vs [15] Blake and 1-0 on clay.  He is 8-1 vs [19] Berdych, 2-0 on clay.  He is 3-0 vs [32] Mathieu, 1-0 on clay.  Well, if you look at it Federer has dominated the ranked opponents in his quarter just as much as Nadal has the ranked opponents in his quarter.  The only difference is that the ranked players in Nadals quarter are great on clay courts, but the players in Federer's are generally really bad on clay.  Nadal without a doubt has the worst overall quarter, but best overall draw.  

Yeah, that's the problem with these kinds of analyses. You start with Roddick and move all the way down to Schuettler and Blake    Give the people a freakin' break from the drama.

[Alex]

 My prediction is Robredo will win RG   .

[NJtennis11]

I do it for the women usually, but why not the men too.  Here are the first round matches I'm most looking forward or have the best chance of an upset.

Karlovic(26) v. Hewitt-Hewitt won a clay court title, I know its the US claycourts where he didn't beat any player in the top 70, but hey its got to count for something.  Karlovic's results on clay haven't been that awful.  Possible third round opponent for Nadal, I like Karlovic in four sets.

Ferrer(14) v. Gil-Ferrer has been in rather poor form of late, and faces a tough customer on clay in Gil in the first round.  Match will be a long grinding affair, I'm sure of it.  Could be a long one here, I like Ferrer in four sets.

Stepanek(18) v. Gaudio-Ranked outside the top 350 now, the one-time French Open champ is back.  Coming off a challenger win a few weeks ago Gaudio is playing some better tennis.  Stepanek retired down a set and a 5-2 to Querrey last week in Madrid.  I like the big upset here, Gaudio in five.

Andreev(25) v. Fognini-Two players who relish the clay.  Fognini had to qualify to get here, and has played a lot on clay, oddly enough losing three weeks in a row to Gilles Simon.  Rather disappointing last few months or so for Andreev who has done nothing.  Fognini in four.

Ljubicic v. Ferrero-An oldtimers battle here.  Ljubicic has been playing some of his best tennis in the past few weeks.  Ferrero is trying to find his best form.  Both guys received wildcards in Madrid last week interestingly enough, who deserved it more...I say Ferrero in four.

Berdych(19) v. Bolelli-Berdych has been OK this clay court season, winning in Munich (although not beating anyone ranked inside 40). I've always been impressed with Bolelli, and clay should suit him best.  Another disappointment for Berdych? I say yes Bolelli in three.

Other seeds who need to watch out in their first round encounters: Scheuttler(27), Tursunov(21)-if he plays, Simon(7), Almagro(31).

[tain316]

Okay well if you look at the ranked players in Federer's quarter you see that Federer is 18-2 vs [6] Roddick 1-0 on clay.  3-1 vs [27] Schuettler, with a lost in 2002.  He hasn't face [24] Melzer.  He is 4-0 vs [11] Monfils, 2-0 on clay.  He is 9-1 vs [15] Blake and 1-0 on clay.  He is 8-1 vs [19] Berdych, 2-0 on clay.  He is 3-0 vs [32] Mathieu, 1-0 on clay.  Well, if you look at it Federer has dominated the ranked opponents in his quarter just as much as Nadal has the ranked opponents in his quarter.  The only difference is that the ranked players in Nadals quarter are great on clay courts, but the players in Federer's are generally really bad on clay.  Nadal without a doubt has the worst overall quarter, but best overall draw.  

Yeah, that's the problem with these kinds of analyses. You start with Roddick and move all the way down to Schuettler and Blake    Give the people a freakin' break from the drama.

Drama? He is just comparing the some of the seeded players on Fed's side. It is a fair comparison to see where the more dangerous clay players lie.  The point is that regardless of the top seeds' records versus players like Ferrer, Verdasco, Davydenko, etc., these players are good clay courters and they definitely can pose threats to any top player.  The fact that they are in Rafa's side is what makes that section more difficult than the others early on.  If these players were in the other section (Djoker's or Fed's) then the same would be said in that situation as well.

[conchita]

ok, so this is the draw of Rafa, only danger til the Final, Wawrinka or Davydenko, if he plays a spaniard like Ferrer or Verdasco before the semis see the meaning of spanish hierarchy walkover on wikipedia, do not take the matches between the boss and the other members of the davis cup team seriously. you can inlcude Gonzalez in the hierarchy walkover.
A good draw for Rafa, a bad draw for the others Spanish tennis players, as last year.   

[tain316]

ok, so this is the draw of Rafa, only danger til the Final, Wawrinka or Davydenko, if he plays a spaniard like Ferrer or Verdasco before the semis see the meaning of spanish hierarchy walkover on wikipedia, do not take the matches between the boss and the other members of the davis cup team seriously. you can inlcude Gonzalez in the hierarchy walkover.
A good draw for Rafa, a bad draw for the others Spanish tennis players, as last year.   

Sorry, but I definitely disagree about this whole "Spanish hierarchy walkover" business.  If any of the Spanish players meet Rafa, they are not just going to lay down and play for fun! They like always are going to try and beat him since that is pretty much everyone's goal at this tournament.  Also, remember Verdasco at the AO semifinal this year?  He certainly didn't just give Rafa as easy victory.

[Babblelot]

I do it for the women usually, but why not the men too.  Here are the first round matches I'm most looking forward or have the best chance of an upset.

Karlovic(26) v. Hewitt-Hewitt won a clay court title, I know its the US claycourts where he didn't beat any player in the top 70, but hey its got to count for something.  Karlovic's results on clay haven't been that awful.  Possible third round opponent for Nadal, I like Karlovic in four sets.

Ferrer(14) v. Gil-Ferrer has been in rather poor form of late, and faces a tough customer on clay in Gil in the first round.  Match will be a long grinding affair, I'm sure of it.  Could be a long one here, I like Ferrer in four sets.

Stepanek(18) v. Gaudio-Ranked outside the top 350 now, the one-time French Open champ is back.  Coming off a challenger win a few weeks ago Gaudio is playing some better tennis.  Stepanek retired down a set and a 5-2 to Querrey last week in Madrid.  I like the big upset here, Gaudio in five.

Andreev(25) v. Fognini-Two players who relish the clay.  Fognini had to qualify to get here, and has played a lot on clay, oddly enough losing three weeks in a row to Gilles Simon.  Rather disappointing last few months or so for Andreev who has done nothing.  Fognini in four.

Ljubicic v. Ferrero-An oldtimers battle here.  Ljubicic has been playing some of his best tennis in the past few weeks.  Ferrero is trying to find his best form.  Both guys received wildcards in Madrid last week interestingly enough, who deserved it more...I say Ferrero in four.

Berdych(19) v. Bolelli-Berdych has been OK this clay court season, winning in Munich (although not beating anyone ranked inside 40). I've always been impressed with Bolelli, and clay should suit him best.  Another disappointment for Berdych? I say yes Bolelli in three.

Other seeds who need to watch out in their first round encounters: Scheuttler(27), Tursunov(21)-if he plays, Simon(7), Almagro(31).

I love to do this!

Here's what I got for 1R

Almagro-Calleri: two guys who've seen better days. In fact, I hadn't seen Calleri's name until last week. I like Almagro in this one only because I like him.

Gulbis-Querrey: wishful thinking, Gulbis should win this one but you never know with these two.

Murray-Chela: I see Chela getting this one in 4! Coup of the tournament in 1R.

Zverev-Starace: Starace is always good for an entertaining match at RG.

Tipsarevic-Montanes: Montanes is playing well, Tipsy, not so much.

Stepanek-Gaudio: Duh. The world will be following this one.

Fognini-Andreev: These guys are headed in opposite directions; I've got Fognini, here.

Santoro-C. Rochus: C. Rochus is playing the best tennis of his life right now.

Benneteau-Tsonga: Tsonga has to win three sets on clay. I don't know that he can.

Garcia-Lopez-Seppi: This one will be good.

Ljubicic-Ferrero: Ljubicic is shockingly on fire. This looks juicy as well.

Bolelli-Berdych: Only interesting to Bolelli fans like me, but this guy has lost his way. Berdych will kill him.

Wow, that's one great 1R!!!

[conchita]

ok, so this is the draw of Rafa, only danger til the Final, Wawrinka or Davydenko, if he plays a spaniard like Ferrer or Verdasco before the semis see the meaning of spanish hierarchy walkover on wikipedia, do not take the matches between the boss and the other members of the davis cup team seriously. you can inlcude Gonzalez in the hierarchy walkover.
A good draw for Rafa, a bad draw for the others Spanish tennis players, as last year.   

Sorry, but I definitely disagree about this whole "Spanish hierarchy walkover" business.  If any of the Spanish players meet Rafa, they are not just going to lay down and play for fun! They like always are going to try and beat him since that is pretty much everyone's goal at this tournament.  Also, remember Verdasco at the AO semifinal this year?  He certainly didn't just give Rafa as easy victory.

if you think this, you don't know how spanish tennis works, in some words: Rafa is the boss and the rest of spanish players are there to give him a free passage until the later stages, semis and final, Ferrer, Almagro or Verdasco will make 1,000 unforced errors. Rafa will not need to hit winners in order to win against his teammates. Hierarchy is important in spanish tennis, and we are not in the late 90's when there was not a clear Spanish nº1 on clay, no  Moya,Mantilla, no Costa, no Ferrero. Rafa is the undisputed boss and his countrymen  are going to give him walkovers. period.
When you are talking about the Verdasco match at the AO, remember it was a different scenario for 2 reasons: a semifinal and not a 4th round or qf, winner to play in first hard court gs slam, Verdasco was able to fight because the event was not on clay in Paris.
you need to combination of all those players in one: Bruguera-Santana-Orantes-Higueras-Costa-Ferrero-Costa-Berasategui-Mantilla-Moya to find another spanish player who is willing to challenge Rafa on clay. don't need to mention Rafa is the mix of all those players I mentioned. 
Rafa must be very happy knowing except Wawrinka and Murray, there's not another player ready to battle him until the final.