Moonballing is indeed a tactic for Rafa. Anyway, in order to beat a prime Nole, Rafa will have to change his whole game. It's either that or he will just have to wait for someone else to take him out/tire him out. Or wait for Nole to crumble altogether again.
Nole's confidence is of course through the roof at the moment and Nadal is just afraid of that height. Somehow it's coming down to whose confidence level is higher than whom. It's not like Nole changed a number of things in his game, hardly in fact, and his game was always better than Rafaís. But it's the confidence factor that's getting in the way now and the fact that, both Nole and Murray are a bit younger than him doesn't really help in the mental department. Besides which, Nadal's been playing very well and been very consistent for a while now, so it's only normal if he is seeing a bit less success right now. Still, all can change in a matter of a few days. Sure Nole had a couple of victories over Nadal on clay, but it's still RG that will be a real testament for both players as well as for the rest of the field.