Nadal has been Completely destroyed by Nole in 2011..Nole was successfull in breaking physical as well as mental barriers of Rafa..But in the end, even nole gave up...
I expect Nadal to reach the finals at all the clay-court tournaments..( i wouldn't go as far as to predict him as the winner becoz who knows..maybe another player might dominate next year..

)
but i will say that nadal has 85-90% chance of defending his title at barcelona, French open.
he should be able to reach at least the semis or finals of US open( totally depends upon his physical condition)..
& i can also say he will be yet again unsucessfull at the world tour finals 2012..
But the main part - OLYMPICS !!!
I expect him to reach quarterfinals or better..( this too depends on his performance at the AELTC or as others migh say -WIMBLEDON)..

& i wouldn't be surprised to see him as the no.1 player or no.3 player..as i feel that in 2012, the ball game will be between the terrific three( fed, nole & rafa) instead of fab four( nole, fed, rafa & murray)..i may be wrong tho..murray's highly unpredictable..
hope i am right..
