Topic: Men's 2012 Australian Open Odds to Win

[swish]

Again they have Del Potro right behind the top four. 


Novak Djokovic 5/4

Roger Federer 3/1

Andy Murray 5/1

Rafael Nadal 5/1

Juan Martin Del Potro 12/1

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 20/1

David Ferrer 40/1

Tomas Berdych 40/1

Bernard Tomic 50/1

Gael Monfils 60/1

Mardy Fish 80/1

Milos Raonic 80/1

Alexandr Dolgopolov 100/1

John Isner 100/1

Janko Tipsarevic 100/1

Andy Roddick 100/1

Marcos Baghdatis 125/1

Nikolay Davydenko 150/1

Gilles Simon 150/1

Richard Gasquet 150/1

Fernando Verdasco 150/1

David Nalbandian 150/1

Mikhail Youzhny 200/1

Lleyton Hewitt 200/1

Stanislas Wawrinka 200/1

Jurgen Melzer 200/1

Ernests Gulbis 200/1

Viktor Troicki 200/1

Field (Any Other Player) 15/1

[Babblelot]

Again they have Del Potro right behind the top four. 


Juan Martin Del Potro 12/1

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 20/1

David Ferrer 40/1

Tomas Berdych 40/1

Bernard Tomic 50/1

Gael Monfils 60/1



Field (Any Other Player) 15/1  lol  I think they missed this one by a couple of 0s 

All this tells me is unsophisticated bettors are throwing money at Del Potro and Tomic. No way is this a reflection of reality.   

[pawan89]

I think Del-potro with more chances than Tsonga and Berdych is ridiculous.

[Babblelot]

Not sure where you're getting your info. Let's check bet365 periodically and see how things are moving.

http://imageshack.us/f/545/aoodds1.png


Del Potro is slipping since opening at 12/1, because betters are finding Tsonga and Berdych more attractive bets now. Tomic, the biggest mover, is getting abandoned, now 66/1!!!!!!! The irrational betting on Tomic is over! Oh, and we haven't even played a match!!   
 

Player           opened      T1
Del Potro         12/1        16/1
Tsonga            20/1        18/1
Berdych           40/1        33/1
Tomic               50/1        66/1

[Babblelot]

Averaging 33 books

Player          T1           T2         T3
Del Potro     17.13      17.38    17.00
Tsonga        18.25      18.25    19.00

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/australia/atp-australian-open/outrights/

[swish]

Again they have Del Potro right behind the top four. 


Juan Martin Del Potro 12/1

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 20/1

David Ferrer 40/1

Tomas Berdych 40/1

Bernard Tomic 50/1

Gael Monfils 60/1



Field (Any Other Player) 15/1  lol  I think they missed this one by a couple of 0s 

All this tells me is unsophisticated bettors are throwing money at Del Potro and Tomic. No way is this a reflection of reality.   

DelPo is a slam winner. Everyone remembers how he did it.
Very good for betting, people are trying to get lucky and make some money.
 

[Babblelot]

Again they have Del Potro right behind the top four. 


Juan Martin Del Potro 12/1

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 20/1

David Ferrer 40/1

Tomas Berdych 40/1

Bernard Tomic 50/1

Gael Monfils 60/1



Field (Any Other Player) 15/1  lol  I think they missed this one by a couple of 0s 

All this tells me is unsophisticated bettors are throwing money at Del Potro and Tomic. No way is this a reflection of reality.   

DelPo is a slam winner. Everyone remembers how he did it.
Very good for betting, people are trying to get lucky and make some money.
 

That's right.    Reality: today, he's nothing like they remember.

Delpo is now  17.38, Tsonga 18.25 across 31 books

[pawan89]

 
DelPo is a slam winner. Everyone remembers how he did it.
Very good for betting, people are trying to get lucky and make some money.
 

Point taken. Even though I agree with Babblelot that it's not the same DelPotro now I think he still deserves his odds now given that he is a slam winner and we remember how he did it. At that time though no one was expecting him to do it.

[Babblelot]

Averaging 29 books at T4.

Rank   Player          T1           T2         T3         T4          Move    Round Completed                       
#5     Tsonga        18.25      18.25    19.00    18.14      0
#6     Del Potro     17.13      17.38    17.00    18.00      0           1R
#7     Berdych       50           33          35        35.57      +1         1R
#8     Tomic           50           66         66         47.57      +1         1R   
#9     Ferrer          40                                     64.14       -2          0


http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/australia/atp-australian-open/outrights/

                                         

[Babblelot]

Averaging 29 books at T5.

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped.   

Rank   Player          T1           T2         T3         T4         T5           Move    Round Completed                       
#5     Tsonga        18.25      18.25    19.00    18.14    18.14       +1          0
#6     Del Potro     17.13      17.38    17.00    18.00    18.29       -1          1R
#7     Berdych       50           33          35        35.57                    +1         1R
#8     Tomic           50           66         66         47.57                    +1         1R   
#9     Ferrer          40                                     64.14                     -2          0


http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/australia/atp-australian-open/outrights/

                                         

[swish]

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

[Babblelot]

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

He won, but lost the favor of bettors with that performance. He's now the 6th favorite. Remember when it was    when he was the 5th favorite?

[swish]

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

He won, but lost the favor of bettors with that performance. He's now the 6th favorite. Remember when it was    when he was the 5th favorite?

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

He won, but lost the favor of bettors with that performance. He's now the 6th favorite. Remember when it was    when he was the 5th favorite?

The betters are unsophisticated, that's why. 
 
 

[Babblelot]

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

He won, but lost the favor of bettors with that performance. He's now the 6th favorite. Remember when it was    when he was the 5th favorite?

Reality check. Del Potro wins, Tsonga has yet to play, and they've flipped. 

Of course DelPo won, he's no clown. 

He won, but lost the favor of bettors with that performance. He's now the 6th favorite. Remember when it was    when he was the 5th favorite?

The betters are unsophisticated, that's why. 

Zactly the point I've been making for 2 days.

Reality: Berdych is the #6th favorite to win. Del Pot's behind Ferrer. And Tomic at #8 is a joke, too.

Favorites to win
Top 4
then Tsonga and Berdych
then Ferrer
.
.
.
Outside Top 10 Del Potro, Tomic, Dolgopolov

[Babblelot]

T6
Tsonga     18.60
Del Potro  20.20

[swish]

T6
Tsonga     18.60
Del Potro  20.20

This is about right, and you made a good statement about DelPo.
He didn't play very well and with that level of play any of the top four should send him packing. 
 
 

[Babblelot]

They flipped again

                   T7
Del Potro     17.00
Tsonga        19.00

[swish]

They flipped again

                   T7
Del Potro     17.00
Tsonga        19.00

DelPo is looking better somewhat.
People are starting to see his game improve as matches go by.
 

[Nole nš1]

Djokovic wins. He is the best.