Topic: What T4U *REALLY* thinks about Roger's and Rafa's form/prime

[Babblelot]

This is based on data I gathered over the past 12 months (2011 AO - 2012 AO) from our GS Bracket Challenge game.

Over that span -- 5 majors -- and all spin aside, here's what we really think about the top 4 and their form/prime.

Note: We are extremely sensitive to recent results. For instance, after losing to Djokovic in the final of Wimbledon, Nadal dropped from his strangle hold on top pick to win in 2011 down to 4th favorite at the USO. And after ending 2011 on a 17 match win streak which included the TMC, Federer regained the favorite to win spot at 2012 AO.

x picked as Champion - 2011 AO
1. Nadal  10/in Murray's half
2. Federer  9/in Djokovic's half
3. Murray  2/in Nadal's half
4. Djokovic  0/in Federer's half

x picked as Champion - 2011 RG
1. Nadal  9/in Murray's half
2. Djokovic  6/in Federer's half
3. Federer  1/in Djokovic's half
4. Murray  0/in Nadal's half

x picked as Champion - 2011 W
1t. Nadal  5/in Murray's half
1t. Federer  5/in Djokovic's half
3. Murray  4/in Nadal's half
4. Djokovic  2/in Federer half

x picked as Champion - 2011 USO
1. Djokovic  6/in Federer's half
2t. Federer  5/in Djokovic's half
2t. Murray  5/in Nadal's half
4. Nadal  1/in Murray's half

x picked as Champion - 2012 AO
1. Federer  10/in Nadal's half
2. Djokovic  8/in Murray's half
3. Murray  2/in Djokovic's half
4. Nadal  1/Federer's SF half

Total x picked as Champion
1. Federer   30
2. Nadal   26
3. Djokovic   22
4. Murray   13

Total x picked as Runner Up
1. Nadal  27
2t. Federer  24
2t. Djokovic  24
4. Murray  12

Total x picked to lose to an opponent NOT ranked in the top 4
1. Nadal  8
2t. Federer  13
2t. Djokovic  13
4. Murray  36

Upshots
1. T4U really thinks there's a Big 3 not 4
2. All this discussion about Federer's and Nadal's simultaneous demise is much ado about nothing: All y'alls are FOS. Here's what we think about the top 4 against everyone.

 All Wins-Losses to players ranked outside top 4
1. Nadal  87-8
2t. Federer  82-13
2t. Djokovic  82-13
4. Murray  59-36

According to T4U, the top 3 still dominate everyone! Despite Federer's fans poor Roger, he's past his prime, and Nadal's fans poor Rafa, he's past his prime, the data suggests you really believe otherwise.

That's why you people make me   

[FedFanForever]

Rafa is peak prime, but Nole is peak peak prime.

[Babblelot]

Seriously doubt you understand what I said 

[monstertruck]

Babblelot approaching zenith!

[falcon]

Do I belong to that elite list? 

[HarryWild]

Thinks might change as sickness, injury occur.  If Djokovic can repeat his performance in 2011; he will be on top to be consider even better then Federer!  Just have to wait and see.  Murray under Lendl might have a breakout and finally win a Grand Slam too.  Not sure if Murray wins one; will he overtake Djokovic in time?  A lot of interesting developments in play for 2012!

[Babblelot]

Thinks might change as sickness, injury occur.  If Djokovic can repeat his performance in 2011; he will be on top to be consider even better then Federer!  Just have to wait and see.  Murray under Lendl might have a breakout and finally win a Grand Slam too.  Not sure if Murray wins one; will he overtake Djokovic in time?  A lot of interesting developments in play for 2012!

No. We don't have to wait and see about anything. This data tells the entire story.

For a few years, the meme on T4U has been that Roger is past his prime and, more recently, Nadal's demise is imminent. But the data shows that T4U really believes otherwise.

[pawan89]

For a few years, the meme on T4U has been that Roger is past his prime and, more recently, Nadal's demise is imminent. But the data shows that T4U really believes otherwise.

Or that T4U players pick with their hearts more than with their brains. And they play the game for fun and pick the players they want to see win than try to compete and win at all costs. 

I believe you are well aware of this kinda thinking Babblelot, having seen your own picks range from top 4 down to players not even in the top 100 

Also.. what's so note-worthy about this? This is how the odds are made, this is how fans perceive favourites, this is how even the players percieve favourites. Am I missing something? I don't think it's just us. Go look at any forum or any tennis expert and you'll notice the same trend 

Note: We are extremely sensitive to recent results. For instance, after losing to Djokovic in the final of Wimbledon, Nadal dropped from his strangle hold on top pick to win in 2011 down to 4th favorite at the USO. And after ending 2011 on a 17 match win streak which included the TMC, Federer regained the favorite to win spot at 2012 AO.

[Babblelot]

1. Whether we are picking with our hearts or our brains, we aren't foolish enough to pick the Field against the top 4. For instance, my favorite player is Gasquet and I'm not a fan of Federer. But I've yet to pick Gasquet to reach a final, and I've picked Roger to win once or twice, reach finals and several SFs. Because this is RogerFederer4U.com -- much to Scott's chagrin -- you guys will pick Federer with your heart. But that's also a smart pick. Further, with respect to the top 3, you aren't being stupid about your picks there, either. That's what you can glean from the "All Wins-Losses to players ranked outside top 4 data.

2. When it comes to Federer, on margin, we are sensitive to recent results. Fedfans are the control population, so Fed moves up and down based on the picks of non-Fedfans. The other three truly reflect recent results because there aren't many Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray fans playing.

Also.. what's so note-worthy about this?

I've told you guys probably 10 times already. I can tell you again. Will it matter? Should I tell you 10 more times? Will that be helpful? When you figure out what I'm saying, you'll understand why what experts or posters on other forums say is irrelevant.

[pawan89]

1. Whether we are picking with our hearts or our brains, we aren't foolish enough to pick the Field against the top 4. For instance, my favorite player is Gasquet and I'm not a fan of Federer. But I've yet to pick Gasquet to reach a final, and I've picked Roger to win once or twice, reach finals and several SFs. Because this is RogerFederer4U.com -- much to Scott's chagrin -- you guys will pick Federer with your heart. But that's also a smart pick. Further, with respect to the other top 4, you aren't being stupid about your picks there, either.

2. On margin, we are sensitive to recent results. Fedfans are the control population, so Fed moves up and down based on the picks non-Fedfans.

Also.. what's so note-worthy about this?

I've told you guys probably 10 times already. I can tell you again. Will it matter? Should I tell you 10 more times? Will that be helpful? When you figure out what I'm saying, you'll understand why what experts or posters on other forums say is irrelevant.

1. I agree. I just think when it comes to Federer vs. Nadal vs. Djokovic vs. Murray picks the picks are more emotional and hopeful than purely statistical. And considering they are the top 4, yes it's absolutely natural to expect to see them through as they ARE the smart picks to reach the later stages as well.
I am simply disputing your statement saying "All this discussion about Federer's and Nadal's simultaneous demise is much ado about nothing". Or rather, adding a asterisk to it because Federer and Nadal's demise and them being in our top picks aren't related and you cannot say it's much ado about nothing based on that. Despite their demise or lack thereof, they still are the top players and very much above the rest of the field. Picking them is no indication that we don't believe in their demise - which is the point you were trying to make. Where the picks based on emotion over head becomes relavent is when you see a consistent support for Fed over Nadal and Nadal over Djokovic, which could be based on us picking who we like to see win and not who's more likely to win.

2. We are sensitive to recent results. I still don't know what's noteworthy about that but clearly I dont' have the brainpower to hang with you and I would rather not waste your precious time making you repeat things to me when you could instead be repeating your never-ending posts regarding the absurdity of fed-tards and nad-tards at every opportunity 

[Babblelot]

Two Fedfans, Logo and Bazzer, and I really challenged the meme that Federer and Nadal are past their prime.

Federer beats everyone but Rafa - bad matchup for Roger
Rafa beats everyone but Nole - bad matchup for Rafa

Federer's alleged demise, a claim put out there by Fedfans of course, began when Rafa started beating Roger. But when Rafa's not around, the alleged "post-prime" Federer still was beating everyone (RG and W). In other words, Federer was in his prime when he beat everyone. Once it became "everyone except Rafa" the narrative was that this is the case because he's past his prime.

The "Rafa is past his prime" storyline is getting trotted out there now simply because he can beat "everyone except Nole."

L K  here vvvvv                                               L K  here vvvvv

It's comical because the tour isn't beating these guys. They dominate the tour. They beat everyone except that one blasted guy. Where is there evidence of demise? They lose to each other. No one is going anywhere. No one ranked below 4 is a threat to the top 4. Alternatively, none of the top 4 are in danger of falling out of the top 4. And to my point, per our picks, we don't think/believe they are going anywhere, either. The "past prime" nonsense I read about often is indeed much ado about nothing. It's put out there to protect your favorite player's legacy, because, you see, in their prime, they beat everyone (period).

[Babblelot]

Sorry that I have to edit. After I post, I read to see how I can make my point clear. It leads to edits. Sometimes you guys read while I'm editing.

Kind of sucks. Forums are an imperfect form of "chat."

[Babblelot]

pawan, let's try this.

I can't prove this, but you and I can probably agree.

If the same 22 people are playing and the rankings are:

#1  Djokovic
#2  Nadal
#3  Murray
.
.
#11  Federer

How many people will be picking with their hearts?

Do you really believe 10 people would pick Federer to win? Do you really believe devotion to your favorite player trumps rationale and the desire to win the game?


I thought I read this...

And they play the game for fun and pick the players they want to see win than try to compete and win at all costs.

    What's fun about playing if you don't play to win? Luggy hates this game because he hates to pick against his favorites, so he only played a few times. Everyone else seems intent on winning. People submit their picks and come periodically to check if they are winning. If I'm late in posting the standings, people ask for them. Seems you're marginalizing others for effect. Didn't work.

[monstertruck]

Do I belong to that elite list? 

Falcon soaring to new heights.....

[monstertruck]

Thinks might change as sickness, injury occur.  If Djokovic can repeat his performance in 2011; he will be on top to be consider even better then Federer!  Just have to wait and see.  Murray under Lendl might have a breakout and finally win a Grand Slam too.  Not sure if Murray wins one; will he overtake Djokovic in time?  A lot of interesting developments in play for 2012!

No. We don't have to wait and see about anything. This data tells the entire story.

For a few years, the meme on T4U has been that Roger is past his prime and, more recently, Nadal's demise is imminent. But the data shows that T4U really believes otherwise.

Ohhhh there you go using solid information as a basis for your opinion!!!  What an idiot!

Reminds me of a discusion I had with The Chief over the weekend.
The gist of it was her final question to me-  "Don't you believe that people can 'think' with their heart?"
I erupted in rant based on my opinion that nothing could be further from the truth.  The link between rational thought and emotion is tenuous at best.  Knowing my political views, you can imagine how the rest of the rant went.

[Start da Game]

nadal is well in his prime, same with djokovic.......fed is still very much in his prime in grandslams and completely loose in non-slam events.......murray and del potro are well in their primes too, just that others around them are too good.......that's what i think about the top 5's primes.......

p.s. i couldn't care less who's really no.5 in the world.......in my book, d pot is the real no.5 in the world.......

[Tennis4you]

1. Whether we are picking with our hearts or our brains, we aren't foolish enough to pick the Field against the top 4. For instance, my favorite player is Gasquet and I'm not a fan of Federer. But I've yet to pick Gasquet to reach a final, and I've picked Roger to win once or twice, reach finals and several SFs. Because this is RogerFederer4U.com -- much to Scott's chagrin -- you guys will pick Federer with your heart. But that's also a smart pick. Further, with respect to the top 3, you aren't being stupid about your picks there, either. That's what you can glean from the "All Wins-Losses to players ranked outside top 4 data.

2. When it comes to Federer, on margin, we are sensitive to recent results. Fedfans are the control population, so Fed moves up and down based on the picks of non-Fedfans. The other three truly reflect recent results because there aren't many Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray fans playing.

Also.. what's so note-worthy about this?

I've told you guys probably 10 times already. I can tell you again. Will it matter? Should I tell you 10 more times? Will that be helpful? When you figure out what I'm saying, you'll understand why what experts or posters on other forums say is irrelevant.

This forum started the day Federer showed up (oh wait, no it didn't) and I will shut it down when he retires (oh wait, no I won't).

This is a tennis forum.  Period.

[Babblelot]

It's gotten a lot better aound here in that respect. Fortunately the fanboys couldn't handle Roger's fall from their graces once he was "past prime" in their eyes.

[Tennis4you]

It's gotten a lot better aound here in that respect. Fortunately the fanboys couldn't handle Roger's fall from there graces once he was "past prime" in their eyes.

Well, that and you scare 2.673 people away per week by slamming on them. 

[Dallas]

Wow - this post just proves Babbs has a lot of time on his hands!