Topic: ATP - Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - 14-22 April 2012

[Babblelot]

Yeah, the brilliance of Roger skipping MC expecting Rafa to skip Madrid groupthink is hilarious.

[masterclass]

After Monte-Carlo if Nadal defeats Djokovic in the final (giving  best possible result to Nadal):
13270 Djokovic
9935 - Nadal
8855 - Federer

Then, if Federer were to win at Madrid vs. Djokovic ( let's say Nadal either withdraws or doesn't play too hard on the blue clay, so SF),

12870 Djokovic
9695 - Nadal
9495 - Federer

Then in Rome it becomes very interesting

Yeah, if Nole loses to Rafa (MC), and if Rafa DNP's Madrid, and if Fed wins Madrid, then Rome becomes very interesting to Fedfans.

Q: How many "ifs" will it take for Rome to be interesting to a Fedfan?
A: 3

Priceless!
 

Alex and others, self included, think Rome is already interesting. 

Since every possible outcome is an if when we discuss before it happens, especially when it's 3 or 4 tournaments, I see nothing significant in 3 or even more ifs, especially if they are not too outlandish (btw, I gave Nadal credit for a SF at Madrid).

Of course Rome is an interesting tournament to many people! But the obvious context was potential rankings change, and as such, I think Rome (or any tournament) becomes more interesting if a rankings change among the top players is possible and the 2 vs 3 change has the most impact as far as the draw implications go.  But that's my opinion.

Based on the current (pre-clay) form,  I believe this to be an objective prediction of where I see the greatest potential for the next rankings change among the top 4.  That's why I focused on Nadal-Federer dynamic.   Of course, as each match and tournament actually plays out, the situation can and probably will change... this predictions stuff is all in good fun  

Respectfully,
masterclass

[masterclass]

well Babs, to be honest with you RG is all that  really matters. Djokovic wants it really badly.

 I mean, sure, we are all guessing right now, who's gonna win what etc. I personally love Rome. It's a great tournament plus Italians absolutely adore Nole (not sure why he is so popular in Italy).  I was actually shocked last year when Djokovic was playing there, the whole stadium was yelling Nole, Nole, Nole .... well, as a Nole fan I loved it 

now, I think that Fed (who says he wants to get back to #1) is making a big mistake by not playing MC.

Hey Mr. Alex, how goes it?

Agreed, Mr. Djokovic has to love Rome after last year. That said, he still has his work cut out for him in Rome.  This year, he'll be the target. I'm sure Andy Murray remembers how close he came last year and would enjoy another shot at Djokovic.  And I'm sure Mr. Nadal and Mr. Federer will be highly motivated there as well. And that's only the top 4 .  Still, if nothing changes, I think Djokovic will have to be favored there.  I think Djokovic has scheduled about has well as he could so far.  He didn't play a lot early in the year, still got his AO win and a Miami masters.  On clay, he adds Monte-Carlo back in and if he can make the finals stands to gain 600 -1000 points, points that he might need further down the road to remain #1.  Perhaps he could stand one less clay tournament in Belgrade, but what can he do, he almost has to play there.

Based on what I've seen, especially recently, Mr. Federer makes his schedule based on his priorities and for the long term.  I'm guessing that he felt the extra 2 weeks rest before the long stretch of the mandatory clay masters, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Olympics was worth the 180 points he'll lose by not playing Monte-Carlo. Also, he probably can see how another Djokovic/Nadal tough match against each other might work in his favor.   

Contrast this strategy that with Mr. Nadal's team.  What do you think of Nadal's scheduling and entry strategies following the Australian Open in preparation for the big clay season?

Respectfully,
masterclass

[Babblelot]

After Monte-Carlo if Nadal defeats Djokovic in the final (giving  best possible result to Nadal):
13270 Djokovic
9935 - Nadal
8855 - Federer

Then, if Federer were to win at Madrid vs. Djokovic ( let's say Nadal either withdraws or doesn't play too hard on the blue clay, so SF),

12870 Djokovic
9695 - Nadal
9495 - Federer

Then in Rome it becomes very interesting

Yeah, if Nole loses to Rafa (MC), and if Rafa DNP's Madrid, and if Fed wins Madrid, then Rome becomes very interesting to Fedfans.

Q: How many "ifs" will it take for Rome to be interesting to a Fedfan?
A: 3

Priceless!
 

Alex and others, self included, think Rome is already interesting. 

Since every possible outcome is an if when we discuss before it happens, especially when it's 3 or 4 tournaments, I see nothing significant in 3 or even more ifs, especially if they are not too outlandish.

Nothing wrong with speculation within reason, but when it sounds like this, it takes rationalization to the point of absurdity.

...the brilliance of Roger skipping MC expecting Rafa to skip Madrid groupthink is hilarious absurd.

Capisce?

[swish]

well Babs, to be honest with you RG is all that  really matters. Djokovic wants it really badly.

 I mean, sure, we are all guessing right now, who's gonna win what etc. I personally love Rome. It's a great tournament plus Italians absolutely adore Nole (not sure why he is so popular in Italy).  I was actually shocked last year when Djokovic was playing there, the whole stadium was yelling Nole, Nole, Nole .... well, as a Nole fan I loved it 

now, I think that Fed (who says he wants to get back to #1) is making a big mistake by not playing MC.

Hey Mr. Alex, how goes it?

Agreed, Mr. Djokovic has to love Rome after last year. That said, he still has his work cut out for him in Rome.  This year, he'll be the target. I'm sure Andy Murray remembers how close he came last year and would enjoy another shot at Djokovic.  And I'm sure Mr. Nadal and Mr. Federer will be highly motivated there as well. And that's only the top 4 .  Still, if nothing changes, I think Djokovic will have to be favored there.  I think Djokovic has scheduled about has well as he could so far.  He didn't play a lot early in the year, still got his AO win and a Miami masters.  On clay, he adds Monte-Carlo back in and if he can make the finals stands to gain 600 -1000 points, points that he might need further down the road to remain #1.  Perhaps he could stand one less clay tournament in Belgrade, but what can he do, he almost has to play there.

Based on what I've seen, especially recently, Mr. Federer makes his schedule based on his priorities and for the long term.  I'm guessing that he felt the extra 2 weeks rest before the long stretch of the mandatory clay masters, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Olympics was worth the 180 points he'll lose by not playing Monte-Carlo. Also, he probably can see how another Djokovic/Nadal tough match against each other might work in his favor.   

Contrast this strategy that with Mr. Nadal's team.  What do you think of Nadal's scheduling and entry strategies following the Australian Open in preparation for the big clay season?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Djokovic and Nadal have a full schedule upcoming and starting with MC.
 
Fed has a very good game plan and it's to his benefit later if the top players push it too hard now.
 
Nadal won't be sure his treatments will work like they did before until he actually plays these tournaments he has laid out.
Djokovic can't rely on last years performance to predict that he can go for long periods without much rest either.
Both of them are rolling the dice, where as Fed will come in again and cleanup what he can.
 

[Djokovic Champion]

well Babs, to be honest with you RG is all that  really matters. Djokovic wants it really badly.

 I mean, sure, we are all guessing right now, who's gonna win what etc. I personally love Rome. It's a great tournament plus Italians absolutely adore Nole (not sure why he is so popular in Italy).  I was actually shocked last year when Djokovic was playing there, the whole stadium was yelling Nole, Nole, Nole .... well, as a Nole fan I loved it 

now, I think that Fed (who says he wants to get back to #1) is making a big mistake by not playing MC.

Hey Mr. Alex, how goes it?

Agreed, Mr. Djokovic has to love Rome after last year. That said, he still has his work cut out for him in Rome.  This year, he'll be the target. I'm sure Andy Murray remembers how close he came last year and would enjoy another shot at Djokovic.  And I'm sure Mr. Nadal and Mr. Federer will be highly motivated there as well. And that's only the top 4 .  Still, if nothing changes, I think Djokovic will have to be favored there.  I think Djokovic has scheduled about has well as he could so far.  He didn't play a lot early in the year, still got his AO win and a Miami masters.  On clay, he adds Monte-Carlo back in and if he can make the finals stands to gain 600 -1000 points, points that he might need further down the road to remain #1.  Perhaps he could stand one less clay tournament in Belgrade, but what can he do, he almost has to play there.

Based on what I've seen, especially recently, Mr. Federer makes his schedule based on his priorities and for the long term.  I'm guessing that he felt the extra 2 weeks rest before the long stretch of the mandatory clay masters, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Olympics was worth the 180 points he'll lose by not playing Monte-Carlo. Also, he probably can see how another Djokovic/Nadal tough match against each other might work in his favor.   

Contrast this strategy that with Mr. Nadal's team.  What do you think of Nadal's scheduling and entry strategies following the Australian Open in preparation for the big clay season?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Djokovic and Nadal have a full schedule upcoming and starting with MC.
 
Fed has a very good game plan and it's to his benefit later if the top players push it too hard now.
 
Nadal won't be sure his treatments will work like they did before until he actually plays these tournaments he has laid out.
Djokovic can't rely on last years performance to predict that he can go for long periods without much rest either.
Both of them are rolling the dice, where as Fed will come in again and cleanup what he can.

I agree

[swish]

well Babs, to be honest with you RG is all that  really matters. Djokovic wants it really badly.

 I mean, sure, we are all guessing right now, who's gonna win what etc. I personally love Rome. It's a great tournament plus Italians absolutely adore Nole (not sure why he is so popular in Italy).  I was actually shocked last year when Djokovic was playing there, the whole stadium was yelling Nole, Nole, Nole .... well, as a Nole fan I loved it 

now, I think that Fed (who says he wants to get back to #1) is making a big mistake by not playing MC.

Hey Mr. Alex, how goes it?

Agreed, Mr. Djokovic has to love Rome after last year. That said, he still has his work cut out for him in Rome.  This year, he'll be the target. I'm sure Andy Murray remembers how close he came last year and would enjoy another shot at Djokovic.  And I'm sure Mr. Nadal and Mr. Federer will be highly motivated there as well. And that's only the top 4 .  Still, if nothing changes, I think Djokovic will have to be favored there.  I think Djokovic has scheduled about has well as he could so far.  He didn't play a lot early in the year, still got his AO win and a Miami masters.  On clay, he adds Monte-Carlo back in and if he can make the finals stands to gain 600 -1000 points, points that he might need further down the road to remain #1.  Perhaps he could stand one less clay tournament in Belgrade, but what can he do, he almost has to play there.

Based on what I've seen, especially recently, Mr. Federer makes his schedule based on his priorities and for the long term.  I'm guessing that he felt the extra 2 weeks rest before the long stretch of the mandatory clay masters, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Olympics was worth the 180 points he'll lose by not playing Monte-Carlo. Also, he probably can see how another Djokovic/Nadal tough match against each other might work in his favor.   

Contrast this strategy that with Mr. Nadal's team.  What do you think of Nadal's scheduling and entry strategies following the Australian Open in preparation for the big clay season?

Respectfully,
masterclass

Djokovic and Nadal have a full schedule upcoming and starting with MC.
 
Fed has a very good game plan and it's to his benefit later if the top players push it too hard now.
 
Nadal won't be sure his treatments will work like they did before until he actually plays these tournaments he has laid out.
Djokovic can't rely on last years performance to predict that he can go for long periods without much rest either.
Both of them are rolling the dice, where as Fed will come in again and cleanup what he can.

I agree

 
 
Thank you sir!!

[Djokovic Champion]

You're welcome friend.

[conchita]

Qualifying Draw

(1) Steve Darcis (BEL) vs (WC) Sebastien Coulleres (FRA)
Arnau Brugues-Davi (ESP) vs (8) Frederico Gil (POR)
-----
(2) Mikhail Kukushkin (UKR) vs Arnaud Clement (FRA)
(WC) Thomas Drouet (MON) vs (9) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
-----
(3) Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR) vs Alessandro Gianessi (ITA)
Iņigo Cervantes (ESP) vs (11) Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP)
----
(4) Leonardo Mayer (ARG) vs Federico Delbonis (ARG)
(WC) Guillaume Couillard (MON) vs (10) Adrian Ungur (ROU)
----
(5) Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) vs Daniel Muņoz-De La Nava (ESP)
Sergei Bubka (UKR) vs (14) Simone Bolelli (ITA)
----
(6) Lukas Rosol (CZE) vs Guillaume Ruffin (FRA)
Stephane Robert (FRA) vs (12) Matthias Bachinger (GER)
----
(7) Tobias Kamke (GER) vs Michael Berrer (GER)
(WC) Thomas Oger (MON) vs (13) Victor Hanescu (ROU)

Seeded players - Rank
1 Steve Darcis, 67
2 Mikhail Kukushin, 70
3 Sergiy Stakhovsky, 71
4 Leonardo Mayer, 72
5 Edouard Roger-Vasselin, 79
6 Lukas Rosol, 81
7 Tobias Kamke, 82
8 Frederico Gil, 84
9 Grigor Dimitrov, 87
10 Adrian Ungur, 94
11 Daniel Gimeno-Traver, 101
12 Matthias Bachinger, 104
13 Victor Hanescu, 105
14 Simone Bolelli, 106
Last Direct Acceptance
Iņigo Cervantes, 186

[conchita]

SATURDAY, 14 APRIL 2012, OOP

COURT CENTRAL start 11:00 am
Qualifying - (5) Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) vs Daniel Muņoz-De La Nava (ESP)
Qualifying - Sergei Bubka (UKR) vs (14) Simone Bolelli (ITA)
Qualifying - (2) Mikhail Kukushkin (UKR) vs Arnaud Clement (FRA)
Qualifying - (6) Lukas Rosol (CZE) vs Guillaume Ruffin (FRA)

COURT DES PRINCES start 11:00 am
Qualifying - (7) Tobias Kamke (GER) vs Michael Berrer (GER)
Qualifying - (WC) Thomas Oger (MON) vs (13) Victor Hanescu (ROU)
Qualifying - (WC) Thomas Drouet (MON) vs (9) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
Qualifying - (3) Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR) vs Alessandro Gianessi (ITA)

COURT 2 start 11:00 am
Qualifying - (4) Leonardo Mayer (ARG) vs Federico Delbonis (ARG)
Qualifying - (1) Steve Darcis (BEL) vs (WC) Sebastien Coulleres (FRA)
Qualifying - Stephane Robert (FRA) vs (12) Matthias Bachinger (GER)

COURT 9 start 11:00 am
Qualifying - Arnau Brugues-Davi (ESP) vs (8) Frederico Gil (POR)
Qualifying - (WC) Guillaume Couillard (MON) vs (10) Adrian Ungur (ROU)
Not Before 2:00 PM
Qualifying - Iņigo Cervantes (ESP) vs (11) Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP)

[Alex]

well Babs, to be honest with you RG is all that  really matters. Djokovic wants it really badly.

 I mean, sure, we are all guessing right now, who's gonna win what etc. I personally love Rome. It's a great tournament plus Italians absolutely adore Nole (not sure why he is so popular in Italy).  I was actually shocked last year when Djokovic was playing there, the whole stadium was yelling Nole, Nole, Nole .... well, as a Nole fan I loved it 

now, I think that Fed (who says he wants to get back to #1) is making a big mistake by not playing MC.

Hey Mr. Alex, how goes it?

Agreed, Mr. Djokovic has to love Rome after last year. That said, he still has his work cut out for him in Rome.  This year, he'll be the target. I'm sure Andy Murray remembers how close he came last year and would enjoy another shot at Djokovic.  And I'm sure Mr. Nadal and Mr. Federer will be highly motivated there as well. And that's only the top 4 .  Still, if nothing changes, I think Djokovic will have to be favored there.  I think Djokovic has scheduled about has well as he could so far.  He didn't play a lot early in the year, still got his AO win and a Miami masters.  On clay, he adds Monte-Carlo back in and if he can make the finals stands to gain 600 -1000 points, points that he might need further down the road to remain #1.  Perhaps he could stand one less clay tournament in Belgrade, but what can he do, he almost has to play there.

Based on what I've seen, especially recently, Mr. Federer makes his schedule based on his priorities and for the long term.  I'm guessing that he felt the extra 2 weeks rest before the long stretch of the mandatory clay masters, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Olympics was worth the 180 points he'll lose by not playing Monte-Carlo. Also, he probably can see how another Djokovic/Nadal tough match against each other might work in his favor.   

Contrast this strategy that with Mr. Nadal's team.  What do you think of Nadal's scheduling and entry strategies following the Australian Open in preparation for the big clay season?

Respectfully,
masterclass

hey MC. I'm well, thank you  . I think that Nadal's scheduling is horrible (even his biggest fans will agree with me, but it is what it is). I don't like Novak's scheduling either, he shouldn't be playing Belgrade. Fed is probably being smarter but I still think that it's too bad he is not playing MC. I just hope that both Djokovic and Nadal simply don't get burnt out.

[hercules]

cheers tramps.

[Dallas]

While all these "young folks" were 'burnt out' or too 'tired' to play great after the US Open...the "old man" of tennis was still going strong.  So.... I see nothing wrong with him skipping MC.  According to the 'rules', he can skip this tournament with no 'penalties' (except for the few points he lost last year).   Everyone knows Nadal is going to win it for the 100,000th time anyway....

[hercules]

he might be old dallas but his game is not so old. he keeps snatching titles.
 
and beating up on the young top guns in the process.
 
 

[Alex]

While all these "young folks" were 'burnt out' or too 'tired' to play great after the US Open...the "old man" of tennis was still going strong.  So.... I see nothing wrong with him skipping MC.  According to the 'rules', he can skip this tournament with no 'penalties' (except for the few points he lost last year).   Everyone knows Nadal is going to win it for the 100,000th time anyway....

well hun, can you remind me when Roger won his last major please? My memory is really bad, was it like 2 years ago or something like that  .
sorry, but couldn't help it 

[hercules]

if truth be told general alex, fed is still doing quite well for a 31 year old.
 
he really should have been in the final of the last u.s. open. he had that match won and managed to let it slip away.
 
he also was in the hunt at wimbledon. he was close to being in the final.

[Alex]

if truth be told general alex, fed is still doing quite well for a 31 year old.
 
he really should have been in the final of the last u.s. open. he had that match won and managed to let it slip away.
 
he also was in the hunt at wimbledon. he was close to being in the final.

I know, I just love teasing Dallas 

[hercules]

affirmative. dallas is a pretty cool lady. i have known her for a long time.

[Djokovic Champion]

Now is the moment of truth, the first tournament on clay and Djokovic will see if we keep winning everything Nadal match or we'll get back to win tournaments.

[conchita]

Saturday, 14 April 2012

Qualifying Singles - First Round
(Federico Delbonis (ARG) d. (4) Leonardo Mayer (ARG)  76(5) 64
Guillaume Ruffin (FRA) d. (6) Lukas Rosol (CZE) 76(3) 67(3) 63
(10) Adrian Ungur (ROU) d. (WC) Guillaume Couillard (MON) 64 62
(12) Matthias Bachinger (GER) d. Stephane Robert (FRA) 61 63

cancelled rain:
(1) Steve Darcis (BEL) vs (WC) Sebastien Coulleres (FRA)
(2) Mikhail Kukushkin (UKR) vs Arnaud Clement (FRA)
(3) Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR) vs Alessandro Gianessi (ITA)
(5) Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) vs Daniel Muņoz-De La Nava (ESP)
(7) Tobias Kamke (GER) vs Michael Berrer (GER)
Arnau Brugues-Davi (ESP) vs (8) Frederico Gil (POR)
(WC) Thomas Drouet (MON) vs (9) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
Iņigo Cervantes (ESP) vs (11) Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP)
(WC) Thomas Oger (MON) vs (13) Victor Hanescu (ROU)
Sergei Bubka (UKR) vs (14) Simone Bolelli (ITA)

draw updated
(1) Steve Darcis (BEL) vs (WC) Sebastien Coulleres (FRA)
Arnau Brugues-Davi (ESP) vs (8) Frederico Gil (POR)
-----
(2) Mikhail Kukushkin (UKR) vs Arnaud Clement (FRA)
(WC) Thomas Drouet (MON) vs (9) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
-----
(3) Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR) vs Alessandro Gianessi (ITA)
Iņigo Cervantes (ESP) vs (11) Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP)
----
Federico Delbonis (ARG) vs (10) Adrian Ungur (ROU)
----
(5) Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) vs Daniel Muņoz-De La Nava (ESP)
Sergei Bubka (UKR) vs (14) Simone Bolelli (ITA)
----
Guillaume Ruffin (FRA) vs (12) Matthias Bachinger (GER)
----
(7) Tobias Kamke (GER) vs Michael Berrer (GER)
(WC) Thomas Oger (MON) vs (13) Victor Hanescu (ROU)