I think he is not as confident as he was last year. It might sound cliched, but that can make a lot of difference, especially in those crucial dogfights, where you know you will have to dig in.
But then again, I think he will still be the favourite at the USO, so if he wins it, all will be well at his camp as he would have regained the momentum. However, if he doesn't win it, then he will have reason to be worried.