Analysis: W&S 2012 Cincinnati Final: [#1] Roger Federer (SUI) vs. [#2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) Historical class at tournament:
Federer: 4 titles, defeating Roddick, Blake, Djokovic
, Fish, QF loss to Berdych, 25-7 match record
Djokovic: 0 titles, 3 finals losing to Murray twice, and Federer
once, 1 QF losing to Roddick. 15-7 match record.
H2H: Federer 1-0 Cincinnati 2009 - Federer d. Djokovic 6-1, 7-5 Full Match
Historical relevant class career: Open Era RecordsCareer Hardcourt Titles Career Outdoor Titles (all Surfaces) # - Name # - Name51 Roger Federer
56 Guillermo Vilas
46 Andre Agassi 55 Jimmy Connors
44 Jimmy Connors 55 Roger Federer
36 Pete Sampras 52 Ivan Lendl
31 Ivan Lendl 49 Rafael Nadal
23 Stefan Edberg 48 Andre Agassi23 Novak Djokovic
43 Thomas Muster
22 John McEnroe 41 Pete Sampras
21 Michael Chang 40 Bjorn Borg
21 Andy Roddick 34 Ilie NăstaseATP Reliability ZoneOn Hardcourts
Current* YTD YTD Career
Index Titles W-L Index Win-Loss1. Roger Federer .902 3 23-2 .832 515-104
2. Ivan Lendl .000 0 0-0 .826 394-83
3. Jimmy Connors .000 0 0-0 .825 509-108
4. Rod Laver .000 0 0-0 .813 126-29
5. John McEnroe .000 0 0-0 .811 292-68
6. Pete Sampras .000 0 0-0 .804 427-1047. Novak Djokovic .857 3 25-2 .802 272-67
8. Andre Agassi .000 0 0-0 .790 598-159
9. Stefan Edberg .000 0 0-0 .788 387-104
10. Andy Murray .846 1 18-4 .778 246-70
* Current Index reflects last 52 weeksCurrent (recent) form:
We all know what happened at Wimbledon in the Championships and the Olympics - Federer Win and Silver medal, Djokovic SF and no medal.
But now that Djokovic is back on the hard court where his great movement isn't as compromised by poorer footwork in more slippery conditions, he seems to have regained some confidence. His Toronto win was good, but other than his compatriot #9 Tipsarevic, he didn't face a top 20 player there, so it's hard to judge how well he was playing.
In Cincinnati, it's been somewhat difficult to tell as well. He's faced and won rather easily against an out of form Seppi, an apparently injured Davydenko, and a good matchup for him, Marin Cilic. In the last match he defeated a quality player in Del Potro who though did not look his healthiest, beat him at the Olympics, so the win was very good for Djokovic.
Federer did not play in Toronto. He's come back in Cincinnati, and expectedly dominated Bogomolov, Jr. and Tomic. He then had to play very well to beat an excellent Mardy Fish, and played fairly well to beat an excellent in form Wawrinka who had previously defeated #4 Ferrer easily.
Both players are unbroken in the tournament to the final! Federer has had only 3 break points against him and saved them holding 100% of his 38 service games, while Djokovic has saved 10 break points in holding 100% of his 31 service games.
Still troubling to me is Djokovic's negative Winners/Unforced Errors ratio on a medium-fast court.
Federer on the other hand has had an excellent positive Winners/UE ratio.
Federer also has had excellent net play.
I believe if Federer serves more like he did previous to the Wawrinka match and continues to play aggressively he could win in a manner similar to his 2009 performance. For Djokovic to win, he'll have to keep his errors down quite low, to offset his lack of winners and hope that his great defense can cause Federer's unforced errors to rise high in an attempt to hit winners. The court is playing relatively medium-fast, but the ball seems to be bouncing rather high in the warm weather. This might allow Djokovic to have more time get to a few more balls, which could frustrate Federer into attempting more risky shots. Federer will have to use good variety in pace and placement to overcome this as well and serving well will get him some easier points.
Obviously, the critical item will be to see who can take more advantage of their break point opportunities, since neither has been broken so far. My guess is that Federer will get more break opportunities, but may convert a lower percentage. Djokovic will get fewer opportunities, but might convert a higher percentage. In their last match in Cincinnati, Federer converted 4 of 15 (26%), while Djokovic converted 1 of 4 (25%). The way they have played recently, I'm guessing Federer will have perhaps 1/2 as many chances this time, and perhaps 2-4 chances for Djokovic.
Let's see who is more successful in executing.
I hope for a good match! Good luck to both players and their fans!