Topic: OFFICIAL 2012 U.S. OPEN (MEN)

[Bazcovic]

they made a real draw for a change........the announcer asked somebody to comeover and pull out those plastic coins from the trophy to make a real draw finally........last year it was all very unclear.........the draw is quite balanced as a result of un-rigged draw ceremony........djokovic, del potro, ferrer, tipsarevic in one half and in the other half murray, federer, tsonga, berdych........

Murray, Federer, Tsonga, Berdych > Djokovic, Del Potro, Ferrer, Tipsarevic

federer is the only slam winner in his half........both del potro and djokovic in the other half have tasted slam success, particularly at the us open........unless dp is injured, it's nicely balanced this time........those who are expecting a walk in the park for novak are in for a surprise........both dp and tipsarevic can beat djokovic........

Tsonga, Berdych, and Murray are slam finalists. Tipsarevic and especially Ferrer are relatively weak @ USO. Del Potro has a wrist injury.

[hcpoirot]

based on the draw, the top 4 who had the easiest and the toughest draws:

David Ferrer had the easiest draw and if he play like usual, he will move to the SF.  His toughest opponents probably will be John isner if John can play great enough to reach QF.

Both Roger and Novak had the same okay draw. Not easy but not super tough.

Sure Novak had del Po in his draw but del Po struggle mighty with his wrist injury in Cincinnati. Playing best of five in US Open will not make it easier. Novak toughest opponents maybe Wawrinka if he play consistent enough to reach R16.

Federer had Berdych in his QF draw. But lately Berdcyh was playing yo yo. Federer toughest opponent had to be Mardy Fish who really playing with more consistent lately.

Andy Murray had to play his very best if he want to win his first GS title. Lopez waiting in R32. Then the big hitter Raonic in R16. (no player want to play Raonic in R16) Then Tsonga in QF. 

If he reach SF, Roger will wait him there. And if he win, Novak will be waiting in final.

But this is the prediction. Like we all know, surprises always appear in any GS events. With a little luck, top 4 players maybe didnot had to play against seeded players if they lost earlier.

This is also David Ferrer best chance to reach his second US Open SF.

[hcpoirot]

And we will see Novak reach the final without any hiccup.

[mav140]

Really Shanks.. not to be an anti-shank poster here, but it is really boring how you can come up with such sad excuses for last year's draw... Talking about conspiracy theories and everything is getting tiring... There are no conspiracy theories for anybody but Fed according to you.. Have you even read you OWN statements every time you post? Claiming a conspiracy, cheating, even fixing draws and matches all in favor of Federer, and never on Djokovic, Murray, Nadal or anybody else? Don't you find this just a little sad? That you have to resort to these kind of sad excuses to make points??


You can see what internet has done to fans and how everything can go viral.. Last year a guy misread and did a mistake placing a different draw from the officials and then everybody takes that viral message and starts a conspiracy theory, and then everybody believed it was fixed?? LOOOL.. that is just sad.. The sad part is, even though the site apologized for making that HUGE mistake, everybody that suited him stayed with the fixing draws.. OMG... Have a little self respect and respect the sport and organization.. Because, yes, they would go into so much trouble and even risk getting caught for just one player?? and risk the entire sport because of him?? Come on, get real... I mean, you can't possibly believe that...


Still and I will hold my ground... What's funny is that everywhere there is a "supposedly" conspiracy theory it benefits Fed... and nobody gets any favors except for Fed, even when he was a "nobody" in the world of tennis... LOL

[swish]

Possible good 1st round match:

Del Potro vs Nalbandian!

Hope DelPo is in-form for that early match.
 
 

[Lugburz]

oh boy terrible draw again for Nalbandian...

Also I'm scared of Gulbis 

[Gawdblessya]

..........
Uh oh.  What will the "The Draw is rigged for Federer" conspiracy theorists say now?   

    I'm sure whatever it is will be very creative!  The imagination is a wondrous thing.

Murray seems to have the toughest route to the title.  I'll be really, really brave & predict a Djokovic / Murray or Federer Final.  I wonder if this revelation qualifies me for a medal? 

[Alex]

Really Shanks.. not to be an anti-shank poster here, but it is really boring how you can come up with such sad excuses for last year's draw... Talking about conspiracy theories and everything is getting tiring... There are no conspiracy theories for anybody but Fed according to you.. Have you even read you OWN statements every time you post? Claiming a conspiracy, cheating, even fixing draws and matches all in favor of Federer, and never on Djokovic, Murray, Nadal or anybody else? Don't you find this just a little sad? That you have to resort to these kind of sad excuses to make points??


You can see what internet has done to fans and how everything can go viral.. Last year a guy misread and did a mistake placing a different draw from the officials and then everybody takes that viral message and starts a conspiracy theory, and then everybody believed it was fixed?? LOOOL.. that is just sad.. The sad part is, even though the site apologized for making that HUGE mistake, everybody that suited him stayed with the fixing draws.. OMG... Have a little self respect and respect the sport and organization.. Because, yes, they would go into so much trouble and even risk getting caught for just one player?? and risk the entire sport because of him?? Come on, get real... I mean, you can't possibly believe that...


Still and I will hold my ground... What's funny is that everywhere there is a "supposedly" conspiracy theory it benefits Fed... and nobody gets any favors except for Fed, even when he was a "nobody" in the world of tennis... LOL

I guarantee you if Nole and Roger weren't ranked 1 and 2 they would be in the same half again, and again AND AGAIN  . except at RG. I happen to know something about statistics. check out how many times they were in the same half while being 1 and 3 and vice versa. it's like (sorry, can't remember exactly) but it's like 16/20 or so. I don't know if draws are rigged or not, but I find it extremely strange. just saying bud, nothing against your or Shank's opinion. but yeah, Roger, regardless being ranked 1 of 2502 happens to get the silliest draws in tennis history. so I think I'm getting paranoid too.  I can pull out some stats, but it's being discussed to death on so many tennis boards ...

[Babblelot]

Thanks Dallas, believe it or not, this is the first time I've ever watched a draw.

 

[TigerTim]

Roddick will probably win now I see the draw. Mines everywhere

[Babblelot]

Matches that may get to see:

ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP [11] - My Guy!
STEPANEK, Radek CZE

SOCK, Jack USA (W) - would like to see this kid
MAYER, Florian GER

GOFFIN, David BEL - I'm interested in seeing this kid
BERDYCH, Tomas CZE [6]

KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER [19]
LLODRA, Michael FRA - I respect Llodra's game

DIMITROV, Grigor BUL
PAIRE, Benoit FRA

MALISSE, Xavier BEL
ISNER, John USA [9]

GASQUET, Richard FRA [13]
MONTANES, Albert ESP

GULBIS, Ernests LAT
HAAS, Tommy GER [21]    What an amazing feat for Tommy to have been away for so long then return and earn the 21st seed at the US Open. Amazing!

ANDERSON, Kevin RSA
FERRER, David ESP [4]

DEL POTRO, Juan Martin ARG [7]
NALBANDIAN, David ARG

BECKER, Benjamin GER
HARRISON, Ryan USA - meh, I'm luke-warm on this kid

ROBREDO, Tommy ESP - Tommy's a favorite of mine
SEPPI, Andreas ITA [26]

RODDICK, Andy USA [20] - meh...maybe if he's last on at night in Armstrong
QUALIFIER (Q)

ROGER-VASSELIN, Edouard FRA
FOGNINI, Fabio ITA  - He's quality entertainment if not tennis

GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP
MONACO, Juan ARG [10]

DOLGOPOLOV, Alexandr UKR [14] - just to watch Dolgo
LEVINE, Jesse USA

STAKHOVSKY, Sergiy UKR
WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI [18]

Then I have to pick a few women's matches! Want to see Kerber for sure!

   

[mav140]

Really Shanks.. not to be an anti-shank poster here, but it is really boring how you can come up with such sad excuses for last year's draw... Talking about conspiracy theories and everything is getting tiring... There are no conspiracy theories for anybody but Fed according to you.. Have you even read you OWN statements every time you post? Claiming a conspiracy, cheating, even fixing draws and matches all in favor of Federer, and never on Djokovic, Murray, Nadal or anybody else? Don't you find this just a little sad? That you have to resort to these kind of sad excuses to make points??


You can see what internet has done to fans and how everything can go viral.. Last year a guy misread and did a mistake placing a different draw from the officials and then everybody takes that viral message and starts a conspiracy theory, and then everybody believed it was fixed?? LOOOL.. that is just sad.. The sad part is, even though the site apologized for making that HUGE mistake, everybody that suited him stayed with the fixing draws.. OMG... Have a little self respect and respect the sport and organization.. Because, yes, they would go into so much trouble and even risk getting caught for just one player?? and risk the entire sport because of him?? Come on, get real... I mean, you can't possibly believe that...


Still and I will hold my ground... What's funny is that everywhere there is a "supposedly" conspiracy theory it benefits Fed... and nobody gets any favors except for Fed, even when he was a "nobody" in the world of tennis... LOL

I guarantee you if Nole and Roger weren't ranked 1 and 2 they would be in the same half again, and again AND AGAIN  . except at RG. I happen to know something about statistics. check out how many times they were in the same half while being 1 and 3 and vice versa. it's like (sorry, can't remember exactly) but it's like 16/20 or so. I don't know if draws are rigged or not, but I find it extremely strange. just saying bud, nothing against your or Shank's opinion. but yeah, Roger, regardless being ranked 1 of 2502 happens to get the silliest draws in tennis history. so I think I'm getting paranoid too.  I can pull out some stats, but it's being discussed to death on so many tennis boards ...

Yeah... I know.. it's been like 16 out of the last 18 times Roger gets put in Djokovic's draw!! I know, because I always get tired of seeing Roger in Novak's half... But do you think that is rigged?? I mean, if it was rigged, that would be on Rafa's behalf!!!!!!!!! Not on Roger's or Novak's, it will definitely be on Rafa's advantage... YET, you don't see Novak's or Roger's fans come out with some conspiracy theory about how Rafa has it the easiest...... If we were to take statistics, we would end up with in the last few years, Rafa is set to play SF against Murray 90% of the time while Roger gets to play Novak's.. so, is that a conspiracy theory against Djokovic (hottest player on tour) and Roger and all in favor of Nadal getting to the finals?? I haven't heard of that one yet...

But you can see that all Rafa fans talk about cheating, conspiracy theory and everything you can come up with, yet they don't talk about how Rafa never (or almost never) gets to play Roger instead of Murray... So what?? All Novak's fans should be complaining and coming up with sad excuses for that?? NO.. I don't see you coming up with such excuses... It is what it is... and Draws are as objective as any other match can be... all I am saying..

[Alex]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

[Babblelot]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

Here's the story.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

Conclusion: 4 out of 1,000,000 !!!

Actually, this study supports my claim that today's top players, unlike those of past eras, have been protected by the 32 seed format. Research proves that the wussification of the draw is both overt and covert.

[Alex]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

Here's the story.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

Conclusion: 4 out of 1,000,000 !!!

Actually, this study supports my claim that today's players, unlike those of past eras, have been protected by the 32 seed format. Research proves that the wussification of the draw is both overt and covert.

thanks Babs great video.

as a lady said 'it is is possible but not probable' ... as I said earlier, I'm not complaining about Nole and Roger playing at any round of any tournament, couldn't care less. I love watching the best of the best so it's good with me, but intellectually I'm trying to understand this it doesn't make any sense to me.

[mav140]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

Here's the story.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

Conclusion: 4 out of 1,000,000 !!!

Actually, this study supports my claim that today's top players, unlike those of past eras, have been protected by the 32 seed format. Research proves that the wussification of the draw is both overt and covert.

Thanks Bab... really interesting video.. But I do have to say, when Pam stands on TV and starts talking about her research and what she and this Dr. "I don't recall", what is interesting is that when the results come out, the 4 out of 1,000,000 probability is for BOTH men and women... Which is something that as she said, it is possible but not probable.. but again, we are talking about PROBABILITIES on both of them (WOMEN AND MEN)... If this research and results were conducted and the results came VERY differently between MEN and WOMEN, we could talk about "rigged".. but the matter of fact is that both are being "unlikely".. hence, they would have to do it this way JUST TO HELP FEDERER (according to Shank)... NOW, if we are talking about 4 out of 1,000,000 in both, what would be the PROBABILITY of just doing it for Fed??? 1 out of 100,000,000?? at least?

[Babblelot]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

Here's the story.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

Conclusion: 4 out of 1,000,000 !!!

Actually, this study supports my claim that today's top players, unlike those of past eras, have been protected by the 32 seed format. Research proves that the wussification of the draw is both overt and covert.

Thanks Bab... really interesting video.. But I do have to say, when Pam stands on TV and starts talking about her research and what she and this Dr. "I don't recall", what is interesting is that when the results come out, the 4 out of 1,000,000 probability is for BOTH men and women... Which is something that as she said, it is possible but not probable.. but again, we are talking about PROBABILITIES on both of them (WOMEN AND MEN)... If this research and results were conducted and the results came VERY differently between MEN and WOMEN, we could talk about "rigged".. but the matter of fact is that both are being "unlikely".. hence, they would have to do it this way JUST TO HELP FEDERER (according to Shank)... NOW, if we are talking about 4 out of 1,000,000 in both, what would be the PROBABILITY of just doing it for Fed??? 1 out of 100,000,000?? at least?

Oh, I wasn't following the   between you and Shanks. I only read what Alex posted 

Here's a good table, Mav.

Men's Grand Slam   Percent of draw simulations as easy as actual draws
Australian                                      71.2%
French                                      69.5%
Wimbledon                              37.0%
U.S. Open                                      0.3%

Women's Grand Slam   Percent of draw simulations as easy as actual draws
Australian                                     94.7%
French                                     99.2%
Wimbledon                             30.7%
U.S. Open                                     0.0%


US Open 

[Alex]

interesting stats Babs, thanks ...
still, OK it's a 'computer program' that decides the draw at the USO. I really think that they should do it manually. This is not only about Murray. Nole, Nadal and Federer. It affects lower ranked players even more. Call me paranoid, but I feel sometimes it's staged 

[Emma]

To follow Babb's lead, here's a series of twitters that went back and forth today after the draw ceremony. It's very strange to say the least:

Neil Harman ‏@NeilHarmanTimes
There is something frankly not right about being handed a full draw sheet as you walk into the room where the draw is about to take place
Expand
Reply  Retweet  Favorite
8h creamola_foam ‏@creamola_foam
@NeilHarmanTimes When you say "full" draw sheet you surely don't mean "already completed", do you?
Expand
 Reply  Retweet  Favorite
8h Neil Harman ‏@NeilHarmanTimes
@creamola_foam All except for the seeds (with the exception of No.1 and No.2), the draw is completed before we walk into the room
 Hide conversation
 Reply  Retweet  Favorite
9:19 AM - 23 Aug 12 via web · Details

[mav140]

Mav, as I said I don't know what to think any more. I'm not really complaining ... I just find it to be so odd. I love watching their matches but even some scientists have got into this and they think it kills all laws of statistics.   

Here's the story.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

Conclusion: 4 out of 1,000,000 !!!

Actually, this study supports my claim that today's top players, unlike those of past eras, have been protected by the 32 seed format. Research proves that the wussification of the draw is both overt and covert.

Thanks Bab... really interesting video.. But I do have to say, when Pam stands on TV and starts talking about her research and what she and this Dr. "I don't recall", what is interesting is that when the results come out, the 4 out of 1,000,000 probability is for BOTH men and women... Which is something that as she said, it is possible but not probable.. but again, we are talking about PROBABILITIES on both of them (WOMEN AND MEN)... If this research and results were conducted and the results came VERY differently between MEN and WOMEN, we could talk about "rigged".. but the matter of fact is that both are being "unlikely".. hence, they would have to do it this way JUST TO HELP FEDERER (according to Shank)... NOW, if we are talking about 4 out of 1,000,000 in both, what would be the PROBABILITY of just doing it for Fed??? 1 out of 100,000,000?? at least?

Oh, I wasn't following the   between you and Shanks. I only read what Alex posted 

Here's a good table, Mav.

Men's Grand Slam   Percent of draw simulations as easy as actual draws
Australian                                      71.2%
French                                      69.5%
Wimbledon                              37.0%
U.S. Open                                      0.3%

Women's Grand Slam   Percent of draw simulations as easy as actual draws
Australian                                     94.7%
French                                     99.2%
Wimbledon                             30.7%
U.S. Open                                     0.0%


US Open 

WOW, interesting stats!!! I agree with Alex here, they should do it manually...