Topic: Federer: No. 1 Realistic This Year

[Alex]

Roger said in an interview that #1 isn't a priority for him this year. He said he wanted to get the record last year and he scheduled his tournaments to get that.  However, he's said that #1 is not a priority and he intends to take 2 months off after Indian Wells.  After his great career - he is entitled to whatever he does!  I think this thread was just started for 'conversation' purposes on the board.

pretty much, but I really think we need to open more threads and talk more. I understand everyone loves CD's castle, but I'd love to see more talk going on here. I will even attempt to open some controversial threads to get things going. The board has been too slow lately. I've been posting on MTF so much lately because there is nobody here. same 5/10 people posting all the time. Let's start shaking our arses people. SPICE UP YOUR LIFE  .

[Dallas]

Roger said in an interview that #1 isn't a priority for him this year. He said he wanted to get the record last year and he scheduled his tournaments to get that.  However, he's said that #1 is not a priority and he intends to take 2 months off after Indian Wells.  After his great career - he is entitled to whatever he does!  I think this thread was just started for 'conversation' purposes on the board.

pretty much, but I really think we need to open more threads and talk more. I understand everyone loves CD's castle, but I'd love to see more talk going on here. I will even attempt to open some controversial threads to get things going. The board has been too slow lately. I've been posting on MTF so much lately because there is nobody here. same 5/10 people posting all the time. Let's start shaking our arses people. SPICE UP YOUR LIFE  .

Sounds good!

[swish]

Roger said in an interview that #1 isn't a priority for him this year. He said he wanted to get the record last year and he scheduled his tournaments to get that.  However, he's said that #1 is not a priority and he intends to take 2 months off after Indian Wells.  After his great career - he is entitled to whatever he does!  I think this thread was just started for 'conversation' purposes on the board.

pretty much, but I really think we need to open more threads and talk more. I understand everyone loves CD's castle, but I'd love to see more talk going on here. I will even attempt to open some controversial threads to get things going. The board has been too slow lately. I've been posting on MTF so much lately because there is nobody here. same 5/10 people posting all the time. Let's start shaking our arses people. SPICE UP YOUR LIFE  .

For once in my life I agree with Alex. 
 
I can look at other boards and bring in some of my devious ideas.
You won't like them. 

[Dallas]

Roger said in an interview that #1 isn't a priority for him this year. He said he wanted to get the record last year and he scheduled his tournaments to get that.  However, he's said that #1 is not a priority and he intends to take 2 months off after Indian Wells.  After his great career - he is entitled to whatever he does!  I think this thread was just started for 'conversation' purposes on the board.

pretty much, but I really think we need to open more threads and talk more. I understand everyone loves CD's castle, but I'd love to see more talk going on here. I will even attempt to open some controversial threads to get things going. The board has been too slow lately. I've been posting on MTF so much lately because there is nobody here. same 5/10 people posting all the time. Let's start shaking our arses people. SPICE UP YOUR LIFE  .

For once in my life I agree with Alex. 
 
I can look at other boards and bring in some of my devious ideas.
You won't like them. 

Well, bring the less-devious ideas that you have...

[pawan89]

looks like i'm a little late to this party. Roger getting back number 1 this year is highly highly unrealistic. We need to remember that he had a flawless end to 2011 winning 3 or 4 tournaments (didn't lose indoors) and having something like only 2 losses since Wimbledon through the end of the year and that boosted him up. Combine that with a decent-solid start of the year 2012 (again, winning titles including Indian Wells) and winning Wimbledon (that he lost in Quarters in the year before, more of a points boost) along with a combination of Djokovic failing to defend some tournaments, it lined up and he took over number 1 by a very small margin. Very small margin.

Now consider this year, he lost a ton of points end of 2012 because he couldn't defend his 2011 points, so already coming into 2012 in a deficit. And he's had a not-so-hot 2013 so far. (Not so hot is relative since we are talking about capturing #1 here). He has nothing to gain and everything to lose at Wimbledon this year which is arguably his best chance for a great performance.

He'd really have to win everything he plays, mainly the Grand Slams, and even then it will be a close call if someone like Djokovic can keep making finals and winning the Masters that Fed's skipping. Throw in Nadal back into the mix and consider that Nadal-Murray-Djokovic are by far the more consistent players day in day out, have about 5 years up on Federer and are in their "peak" 23-28 age.. yeah, hanging on to the top 4 should satisfy Fed as far as rankings goes. Shooting for Slams and tournament wins is good and I hope he does that. Forget the rankings. And if he is shooting for slams and tournament wins, he won't be dropping out of the top 4 anytime soon.

[Litotes]

looks like i'm a little late to this party. Roger getting back number 1 this year is highly highly unrealistic. We need to remember that he had a flawless end to 2011 winning 3 or 4 tournaments (didn't lose indoors) and having something like only 2 losses since Wimbledon through the end of the year and that boosted him up. Combine that with a decent-solid start of the year 2012 (again, winning titles including Indian Wells) and winning Wimbledon (that he lost in Quarters in the year before, more of a points boost) along with a combination of Djokovic failing to defend some tournaments, it lined up and he took over number 1 by a very small margin. Very small margin.

Now consider this year, he lost a ton of points end of 2012 because he couldn't defend his 2011 points, so already coming into 2012 in a deficit. And he's had a not-so-hot 2013 so far. (Not so hot is relative since we are talking about capturing #1 here). He has nothing to gain and everything to lose at Wimbledon this year which is arguably his best chance for a great performance.

He'd really have to win everything he plays, mainly the Grand Slams, and even then it will be a close call if someone like Djokovic can keep making finals and winning the Masters that Fed's skipping. Throw in Nadal back into the mix and consider that Nadal-Murray-Djokovic are by far the more consistent players day in day out, have about 5 years up on Federer and are in their "peak" 23-28 age.. yeah, hanging on to the top 4 should satisfy Fed as far as rankings goes. Shooting for Slams and tournament wins is good and I hope he does that. Forget the rankings. And if he is shooting for slams and tournament wins, he won't be dropping out of the top 4 anytime soon.

I agree it's very unlikely he'll get #1 back, but I don't think the 1355 points he was ahead of Djokovic post-US Open last year can be described as a "very small margin". Yes, it was 75 points when he got #1 back, but then he increased his lead, so it's not like he was dependent upon those 75 points to get #1 back. With 1000 less he'd just have to wait a bit longer.

As for "peak" age, that is normally considered to be 21-25, not 23-28. Going by historical results we see lots more victories for 21-year olds than 26-year olds. This might be changing, though. Not much hope of youngsters winning much the next few years whereas both Djokovic and Murray are leaving the traditional "peak" years before the next major.

[swish]

No number 1 for Fed, if he misses Miami he'll be far behind.
 
The problems with his back may come more regularly now as he isn't a young chicken.
 
Nadal is back so on clay he isn't likely to get many points, Wimby is a chance.
 
On hard courts it's getting more dangerous, Nole, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro.
Isner, Gulbis and others can get very hot now and then. Just very tough.