Finals today in Basel, Valencia!
Make your picks!
I'll start.
[1] Roger Federer (SUI) vs. [2] Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)
Roger has come through 6 consecutive times this year against Juan on every surface, outdoors and indoors, and at every level 500's to majors.
But some of them have been real, real close. Dubai was 7-6 (5), 7-6 (6), Del Potro led 2 sets to love at Roland Garros before collapsing. And their last one at Wimbledon was one for the ages with Del Potro grabbing the first set and Federer taking the 2nd set tiebreaker and the 3rd set marathon set 19-17. Indoors at Rotterdam early this year was an easy win for Federer - 6-1, 6-4.
Del Potro has been playing well of late, winning the Vienna title last week, but hasn't met someone of Federer's caliber in a while.
Federer has been struggling a bit since Shanghai where he said he wasn't getting enough practice, but seems to be rounding into form in his last couple of efforts against Paire and Mathieu, especially his serve, which is key. In those last two matches he never faced a break point. This is the kind of serving he did in Cincinnati the whole tournament.
To sum up, I think this match indoors in Federer's back yard is on Federer's racquet. If Federer continues his excellent serving and controlled aggressive play as he has in the last couple of matches, Del Potro will be under extreme pressure on his own serve. If Federer's serve goes away for some reason, I think Del Potro can take advantage, but I don't see this happening now. Federer is trending better and he's playing in front of his home crowd. Look for him to win in 2 sets, perhaps one more difficult and one easier. If Juan is playing very well, I could see the first set going to a tiebreaker. I'll predict:
Federer d. Del Potro 7-5, 6-3
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[1] David Ferrer (ESP) vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR)
David Ferrer has come back after a bit of a rest in very good shape. This is basically his home tournament. He has been serving well and playing quite aggressively, coming into the net more often than usual.
Alex Dolgopolov is looking in superb form and his variety and skill set has given his opponents headaches. He is also serving well which is quite important for him.
The key to this match will probably be Ferrer's return of serve. If Dolgopolov is not getting his first serve in, Ferrer can jump on Dolgopolov's second serve. Also Ferrer is extremely steady against lower ranked players. We've seen him get anxious in winning positions against top players like Nadal at Barcelona and rush his shots, but don't see that with the lower ranked players. All that said, if Alex can catch fire and serve and play consistently well with some of his unorthodox spin shots, it may unsettle David.
I'm going to go with Ferrer on this one. He's playing in his backyard, he's playing well, and I think he'll keep consistent pressure on Dolgopolov with his return of serve and eventually break Alex down. David has not lost to Alex on hard court, but Valencia plays relatively slow. I'll go with Ferrer in 3 sets:
Ferrer d. Dolgopolov 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Respectfully,
masterclass
