Topic: "Ye Olde Castle" Volume #3 : The Castle Sports Bar

[Clay Death]

tipsy might be physically and mentally spent general shanks.
 
what are you thoughts on the 2 monster semis tomorrow?
 
who do you see in the final?

[masterclass]

i am catching the fed vs d-pot match. fed had it going on in the 2nd set but then he fell apart.
 
he had 15 winners and just 8 unforced errors in the 2nd set.
 
d-pot tightened up his game in the 3rd set and raced to a 3-0 lead. fed returned poorly and ran around his single hander in order to hit more forehands.
 
you cant win if you dont return well and you are shaky off the ground. one loss of serve usually does it and there is no coming back.
 
lets see if fed shows a little more patience off the ground tomorrow. he is playing too high risk in my view.
 
and the return has to improve.

This is a very good analysis general.  It's like he forgot how to beat Del Potro, by moving him side to side with more low slices, off speed stuff and short angles. Trying to exchange power shots on a rather slow court from the baseline feeds into Del Potro's game, and then Federer has to go for too much and forces him into lots of unforced errors - like 42 or something? Awful. 

Respectfully,
masterclass

[masterclass]

his movement is impressive for a guy who's just 4 inches shy of 7 feet.......it's a good serve alright but we need to see how he does outdoors........

General Shanks, this is a very good point.  Drop shots outdoors in any kind of wind are very risky, unless on top of the net. If he hits too many in those conditions it could cost him matches against better players.  I think we have to wait and see how he develops. This tourney gave him confidence, ranking, and some money in the bank; he couldn't even afford to travel to tournaments before.  He moves much better than Raonic or Isner.  He also has to stay healthy, which has always been a problem for the big men. But he is lighter than most of them (only 200 lbs at 6' 8") - let's see what happens.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[masterclass]

tipsy might be physically and mentally spent general shanks.
 
what are you thoughts on the 2 monster semis tomorrow?
 
who do you see in the final?

Though he won Wimbledon, and an Olympic Silver medal, arguably, Roger Federer played the best he has played this year for an entire tournament in Cincinnati. He faced only 3 break points the entire tournament and saved them. He won all 3 tiebreakers he played against Fish, Wawrinka, and Djokovic. Fish and Wawrinka may have played their best matches of the year in a losing effort to Federer, and Djokovic got bageled (though Nole's poor play contributed to that). 

I would say that Federer probably peaked that tournament, and would say that he has not been generally as good since then, probably due to a combination of mental and physical fatigue and attention for his time since regaining #1. Since the US Open this year, he has not been able to fence in his drops in focus and turn matches around as he had for almost 10 months or so since last year's Basel. He has also lost 2 key tiebreakers to Del Potro rather badly. One to lose the final in Basel, and one at London's O2 in the 3rd RR round in the first set.  But, he did reach the final in Basel, and had flashes of brilliance here and there in his matches at O2 so it's not like he has totally fallen apart. His only losses since and including the US Open, have come to Berdych, Murray, and Del Potro, all tough players for him at times in the past.

But Andy Murray's and Novak Djokovic's standard also hasn't been very good since Shanghai. They both performed poorly in Paris for whatever reason. Then at O2, Djokovic played poorly in the first round, but was very fortunate to be playing an even worse Tsonga. Since that match, he has slightly improved, but the match Murray and Djokovic played was full of unforced errors (84 - D40, M44) and was lost more than won, and his best match thus far was against Berdych, who is an almost perfect match-up for Novak (HTH 11-1).  Del Potro and Ferrer have probably been playing the best level indoors of any of the participants since Shanghai, Ferrer only losing to his worst match-up, Federer, and Del Potro losing to Ferrer.

We will see who can manage to pull their game together for the semifinals to go on to the final. Probably Del Potro and Djokovic appear to have the most confidence of the remaining participants. Djokovic cannot afford to play a poor first set against Del Potro, and should count on his great defense to frustrate Juan Martin.  Del Potro's chance is to be quite aggressive, keep the points shorter, and not allow Djokovic rhythm or movement to profit him. He must not back up behind the baseline as has been his habit. When he gets a floater he has to come in and use his height to hit the volley and win the point, instead of backing up and waiting for the ball to land.

I wouldn't be surprised at any outcome with regard to Murray vs. Federer. They have both played up and down during their matches here. It just depends on who is more up than down for the longest and for the key parts of the match tonight.

I'm going to flip a coin and say Murray will pull it out, and that a very confident Del Potro will come out on fire and beat Djokovic. But who the hell knows?   I wouldn't bet these matches.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[Start da Game]

his movement is impressive for a guy who's just 4 inches shy of 7 feet.......it's a good serve alright but we need to see how he does outdoors........

General Shanks, this is a very good point.  Drop shots outdoors in any kind of wind are very risky, unless on top of the net. If he hits too many in those conditions it could cost him matches against better players.  I think we have to wait and see how he develops. This tourney gave him confidence, ranking, and some money in the bank; he couldn't even afford to travel to tournaments before.  He moves much better than Raonic or Isner.  He also has to stay healthy, which has always been a problem for the big men. But he is lighter than most of them (only 200 lbs at 6' 8") - let's see what happens.

Respectfully,
masterclass

hola mc.......yeah we need to keep an eye on this player for sure.......you are right about the drop shot, he will have overused the shot if he tries it outdoors as frequently as he did indoors.......and his backhand is not quite solid yet.......

[Clay Death]

i am catching the fed vs d-pot match. fed had it going on in the 2nd set but then he fell apart.
 
he had 15 winners and just 8 unforced errors in the 2nd set.
 
d-pot tightened up his game in the 3rd set and raced to a 3-0 lead. fed returned poorly and ran around his single hander in order to hit more forehands.
 
you cant win if you dont return well and you are shaky off the ground. one loss of serve usually does it and there is no coming back.
 
lets see if fed shows a little more patience off the ground tomorrow. he is playing too high risk in my view.
 
and the return has to improve.

This is a very good analysis general.  It's like he forgot how to beat Del Potro, by moving him side to side with more low slices, off speed stuff and short angles. Trying to exchange power shots on a rather slow court from the baseline feeds into Del Potro's game, and then Federer has to go for too much and forces him into lots of unforced errors - like 42 or something? Awful. 

Respectfully,
masterclass

affirmative general masterclass. he showed little or no patience in the 3rd set. he went for too damn much.

also i cant see why he was not able to figure out the return of serve either. he was getting a good read on d-pot`s serve after 2 sets.

d-pot was gifted endless free points in the last set.

[Clay Death]

hell general masterclass , general shanks.
 
i am watching the new orleans saints game at the moment.
 
looking forward to the big semifinal showdown.

[Start da Game]

rob koenig picked murray in the second semis, hercs........murray will have to work very hard to win this one........he cannot hit through fed's defense on this dead slow court, so the only way i see him winning is by retrieving endlessly........

i think federer might win this.......slow conditions with no wind are ideal for his game........that's the reason why he won this title the last two times.......

[Clay Death]

he has to serve big and return well general shanks.
 
in addition, he needs to show more patience in the rallies. you cant go every shot.
 
you need point construction against guys as solid off the ground as nole and murray.

[Clay Death]

tipsy might be physically and mentally spent general shanks.
 
what are you thoughts on the 2 monster semis tomorrow?
 
who do you see in the final?

Though he won Wimbledon, and an Olympic Silver medal, arguably, Roger Federer played the best he has played this year for an entire tournament in Cincinnati. He faced only 3 break points the entire tournament and saved them. He won all 3 tiebreakers he played against Fish, Wawrinka, and Djokovic. Fish and Wawrinka may have played their best matches of the year in a losing effort to Federer, and Djokovic got bageled (though Nole's poor play contributed to that). 

I would say that Federer probably peaked that tournament, and would say that he has not been generally as good since then, probably due to a combination of mental and physical fatigue and attention for his time since regaining #1. Since the US Open this year, he has not been able to fence in his drops in focus and turn matches around as he had for almost 10 months or so since last year's Basel. He has also lost 2 key tiebreakers to Del Potro rather badly. One to lose the final in Basel, and one at London's O2 in the 3rd RR round in the first set.  But, he did reach the final in Basel, and had flashes of brilliance here and there in his matches at O2 so it's not like he has totally fallen apart. His only losses since and including the US Open, have come to Berdych, Murray, and Del Potro, all tough players for him at times in the past.

But Andy Murray's and Novak Djokovic's standard also hasn't been very good since Shanghai. They both performed poorly in Paris for whatever reason. Then at O2, Djokovic played poorly in the first round, but was very fortunate to be playing an even worse Tsonga. Since that match, he has slightly improved, but the match Murray and Djokovic played was full of unforced errors (84 - D40, M44) and was lost more than won, and his best match thus far was against Berdych, who is an almost perfect match-up for Novak (HTH 11-1).  Del Potro and Ferrer have probably been playing the best level indoors of any of the participants since Shanghai, Ferrer only losing to his worst match-up, Federer, and Del Potro losing to Ferrer.

We will see who can manage to pull their game together for the semifinals to go on to the final. Probably Del Potro and Djokovic appear to have the most confidence of the remaining participants. Djokovic cannot afford to play a poor first set against Del Potro, and should count on his great defense to frustrate Juan Martin.  Del Potro's chance is to be quite aggressive, keep the points shorter, and not allow Djokovic rhythm or movement to profit him. He must not back up behind the baseline as has been his habit. When he gets a floater he has to come in and use his height to hit the volley and win the point, instead of backing up and waiting for the ball to land.

I wouldn't be surprised at any outcome with regard to Murray vs. Federer. They have both played up and down during their matches here. It just depends on who is more up than down for the longest and for the key parts of the match tonight.

I'm going to flip a coin and say Murray will pull it out, and that a very confident Del Potro will come out on fire and beat Djokovic. But who the hell knows?   I wouldn't bet these matches.

Respectfully,
masterclass

excellent analysis general. d-pot ran out of gas in the last 2 sets. nole moves too damn good and returns too well and he does not have to run around his backhand.

he gives up zero court in the process.


the second big semi looks quite interesting. fed did not really have to win the match yesterday.

lets see if he plays smarter tennis today. 42 unforced errors or even 30 will not cut the mustard today.

[masterclass]

Hi again,

Federer doesn't really care how fast or slow a court is, or if it is windy or not as the wind applies to both players and he has proven he can handle it well. What really matters to Federer is the bounce. Federer prefers a lower bounce. And London's O2, though quite on the slow side, has a lower bounce than most courts they play on during the year and does generally favor him.  Federer probably played his best tournament of the year in Cincinnati, and Cincinnati is probably the fastest outdoor tournament of the year, but it's also lower bouncing.  Also, it's not all about him; some of this is also relative to how well or badly his competition plays in those conditions.

So as General Hercules says, conditions here are going to generally reward great retrieving and point construction and patience to wait until the correct moment to be aggressive and then attempt to hit a winner from inside the court. If Federer is too impatient, trying to win return games in 3 or 4 shots, I don't think he keep that level up long enough to outlast Murray. But on the other hand, he can't rally for too long either too many times.  So it's a fine line.  He must take care of his own serve with a high percentage, keeping games as short as possible to put pressure on the Murray serve, and then strategically set up points on return of serve within 6 or 7 shots.  But Murray is no fool, he returns very well and has fairly good tactics.  It will probably come down to who executes better at the key moments, as it usually does.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[masterclass]

tipsy might be physically and mentally spent general shanks.
 
what are you thoughts on the 2 monster semis tomorrow?
 
who do you see in the final?

Though he won Wimbledon, and an Olympic Silver medal, arguably, Roger Federer played the best he has played this year for an entire tournament in Cincinnati. He faced only 3 break points the entire tournament and saved them. He won all 3 tiebreakers he played against Fish, Wawrinka, and Djokovic. Fish and Wawrinka may have played their best matches of the year in a losing effort to Federer, and Djokovic got bageled (though Nole's poor play contributed to that). 

I would say that Federer probably peaked that tournament, and would say that he has not been generally as good since then, probably due to a combination of mental and physical fatigue and attention for his time since regaining #1. Since the US Open this year, he has not been able to fence in his drops in focus and turn matches around as he had for almost 10 months or so since last year's Basel. He has also lost 2 key tiebreakers to Del Potro rather badly. One to lose the final in Basel, and one at London's O2 in the 3rd RR round in the first set.  But, he did reach the final in Basel, and had flashes of brilliance here and there in his matches at O2 so it's not like he has totally fallen apart. His only losses since and including the US Open, have come to Berdych, Murray, and Del Potro, all tough players for him at times in the past.

But Andy Murray's and Novak Djokovic's standard also hasn't been very good since Shanghai. They both performed poorly in Paris for whatever reason. Then at O2, Djokovic played poorly in the first round, but was very fortunate to be playing an even worse Tsonga. Since that match, he has slightly improved, but the match Murray and Djokovic played was full of unforced errors (84 - D40, M44) and was lost more than won, and his best match thus far was against Berdych, who is an almost perfect match-up for Novak (HTH 11-1).  Del Potro and Ferrer have probably been playing the best level indoors of any of the participants since Shanghai, Ferrer only losing to his worst match-up, Federer, and Del Potro losing to Ferrer.

We will see who can manage to pull their game together for the semifinals to go on to the final. Probably Del Potro and Djokovic appear to have the most confidence of the remaining participants. Djokovic cannot afford to play a poor first set against Del Potro, and should count on his great defense to frustrate Juan Martin.  Del Potro's chance is to be quite aggressive, keep the points shorter, and not allow Djokovic rhythm or movement to profit him. He must not back up behind the baseline as has been his habit. When he gets a floater he has to come in and use his height to hit the volley and win the point, instead of backing up and waiting for the ball to land.

I wouldn't be surprised at any outcome with regard to Murray vs. Federer. They have both played up and down during their matches here. It just depends on who is more up than down for the longest and for the key parts of the match tonight.

I'm going to flip a coin and say Murray will pull it out, and that a very confident Del Potro will come out on fire and beat Djokovic. But who the hell knows?   I wouldn't bet these matches.

Respectfully,
masterclass

excellent analysis general. d-pot ran out of gas in the last 2 sets. nole moves too damn good and returns too well and he does not have to run around his backhand.

he gives up zero court in the process.


the second big semi looks quite interesting. fed did not really have to win the match yesterday.

lets see if he plays smarter tennis today. 42 unforced errors or even 30 will not cut the mustard today.

Definitely not. Too high an unforced error count.  I think about 20 or fewer errors along with about 20 winners on these courts will win the match.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[Clay Death]

affirmative general. if we are to assume these courts are slow then point construction is the way.
 
especially if murray or nole are on the other side of the net. they are too consistent off the ground and they move too well.
 
i know fed has to take time away from them and sting quickly by taking the ball on the rise but he cant play too high risk either.
 
there will have to be a right balance today.
 
one advantage fed has is that he has the bigger serve. so that has to be cooking today.

[Clay Death]

i am going to pick fed for the win today but i dont see how he can defeat nole in the final.
 
my pick for the title was fed about a month ago. now that pick is not looking like a certainty.
 
nole would have to be off and fed would have to play a clean match with very few errors.

[masterclass]

I wonder what factor the crowd will be today?  Will they get behind Murray or Federer, or the one that is losing?

Also, we can't underestimate the Lendl effect. Murray has definitely looked stronger mentally when Lendl is on hand and generally plays more aggressively. He hit some solid power forehands in his last match especially.

Lendl gives Murray balls


Respectfully,
masterclass

[Clay Death]

good question. tough call there.
 
maybe the fans will just cheer for great tennis.
 
on the other hand,  murray has never won this event so they might cheer for him. fed has 6 of these titles.

[Clay Death]

you are right about the lendl effect. highlander is more calm when lendl is around.

[Clay Death]

marc and marcel are doing good at the moment.
 
diana must be excited about this development. lets see if they can close the sale.
 
i am happy for marc and marcel too.

[masterclass]

i am going to pick fed for the win today but i dont see how he can defeat nole in the final.
 
my pick for the title was fed about a month ago. now that pick is not looking like a certainty.
 
nole would have to be off and fed would have to play a clean match with very few errors.

Federer has never lost to Djokovic in a final. Still, there can always be a first time. We will see.

Federer has lost 3 finals this year, two that I think he gifted away.  Halle to friend Haas, and Basel to Del Potro who had lost 7 straight vs. Federer. The Olympics vs Murray was legit, as Federer was exhausted from beating Del Potro in a 36 game 3rd set.

Too bad, he might have have 78 titles already. He still needs one more to tie McEnroe at 77, though he has passed him for matches won.

Respectfully,
masterclass

[masterclass]

marc and marcel are doing good at the moment.
 
diana must be excited about this development. lets see if they can close the sale.
 
i am happy for marc and marcel too.

Yes, they should beat the British/Danish team.  Haven't seen Diana here lately, but I could have missed her as I have been out a lot.

Respectfully,
masterclass