I don’t have a choice in case of my next breath as that’s my only option, so whether it’s going to kill me or not is irrelevant. In other words, I must breathe since my whole physical existence is depending on it.
In this particular case, is past really the decider when I have already showed you that the past hasn’t exactly reflected the future? And what makes you really think that the past is the only decider? What about the surface? Circumstances? Rosol anyone? Injuries etc.? Have you taken those into account? In fact, I’d rather make my tennis predictions based on the surface than anything else. And their recent performance. Hard court, for example, you chose as Nole as the AO winner simply because he’s won it 3 times already, but Andy too has made the AO final 2 times already and judging by their very recent form, the margin between Andy and Nole is even (1 all in GS hard courts – AO and USO). So if anything, the most important factor here is their performance against each other on this specific surface – not the past even though Nole has won it more times than Andy.
Let’s move on to grass – the advantage again lies with Andy simply because he’s the better player on grass court. Both Nole and Andy have met on grass only 1 time and that was the Olympics semi this year, and Andy took him out in straight sets. Yes, Nole has the experience winning Wimbledon already but Andy has made Wimbledon semi 3 times in a row and won the Olympics gold medal beating none other than Federer just this year and has given Federer a run for his money at the Wimbledon final as well. His overall performance on grass is better than Nole’s 1 time win. Nole, in fact, will have to win more than 1 Wimbledon title to establish the fact that, he’s a great player on grass too and be much more consistent. His win on grass against Nadal just last year might well just be a fluke. Or else how do you explain his loss to Federer just this year on grass? Nole, in fact, doesn’t have a grass title other than last year’s Wimbledon. This year, he had two chances to win 1 and he had failed to do it. One was won by Federer and the other one was by Andy. And this is simply because these two are more natural on grass. Andy has 3 titles along with all those Wimbledon semis and 1 final btw.
Of course you can’t pick Gasquet as the winner since we have 4 players who have much better chance to win each Slam than him, but it’s still not a certain thing despite the past, but more importantly, that wasn’t the point. While it’s limited to 4 players only, the order of the winners aren’t remotely as predictable as you think and that’s judging by the past btw.
As to the weather, well , that’s a forecast which tends to be more precise and specific as you have a lot more information available to work with and because of their proximity. After all, they don’t have to predict what’s going to happen next year but rather the next two weeks. If they make prediction about next year then yes, it’s going to be based on the past but it’s not going to be accurate.
Predictions, on the other hand, tend to have much bigger sense and range. For example, you can totally say, there would be a major earth quake next year even when you have no information available. People and psychics tend to make these sorts of predictions all the time; you won’t see weather channel making prediction like this, simply because they tend to rely on the information they have in hand. It’s more about being scientifically correct, whereas predictions are more about probabilities and possibilities - hence the much broader range. It’s not merely based on the past but also about gut feelings, educated guesses and some other elements as some tend to perceive ahead of time.
Some things are definitely predictable based on the past but those are not predictions in the first place as they are more in line with scientific facts (still not a certainty because of the uncertainty factor – that will be always there). No one’s going to predict that he or she’s going to die the next time they breathe, because the probabilities and possibilities of happening that are very slim. Predictions aren’t supposed to like that.
