Author Topic: Predictions for 2013  (Read 5734 times)

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Offline pawan89

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2012, 12:08:46 PM »
2013 should be fun! We have a real rivalry between Djokovic and Murray, and of course Fed and Nadal aren't going away anytime soon. Then we have our usual list of possible contenders that include a very capable Del Potro, surprisingly consistent Berdych (Top 7 player for almost 2 years now if I am not wrong), new coached Tsonga who are all capable of upsetting the top 4.

I think the most obvious take-away from everyone's predictions is that we have no new faces who might surprise us, which is expected. And most people seem to be writing off Federer entirely and almost seem to be writing off Nadal everywhere but at the French.

As much as I love Murray and love watching his game, I am not convinced he can go after slams like we have seen Fed/Djokovic/Nadal do. His game has always been and even now at it's core is still about hanging in a match until the opponent loses and while he can be successful with it a few times, I'd be very impressed to see him go after matches with the killer instinct, killer game and fire that we have seen in others.

I think Nadal will be back as strong as ever if not stronger for the French Open. The big question is his health. If his health is ok, I am convinced he'll win the French even if that's the first tournament he plays.

Djokovic - he's the best. Not that we didn't know that already but I think that win at the WTF against Roger in the final was very solid. He wasn't playing his best, was down against Roger both sets and hung in there and clawed his way out of trouble. We might not see Djokovic of 2011 again but he's well above his main competition at this point and if healthy should be the heavy favourite against Roger and Murray anywhere, even Nadal except on clay.

AO: Murray
French: Nadal
Wimbledon: Djokovic
USOpen: Roger


Offline jesse james

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2012, 06:31:09 PM »
ooh predictions always difficult.

Australian Open=Djokovic
French=Nadal
Wimbledon=Djokovic
US Open=Murray

I tend to use the past as a guide to the future.  It works with the weather-not always, but statistically as good as professional forecasts.
Djoko is hot, both physically and in terms of his game. He's won the aussie open 3 times, so it's rational to think he can do it again.
i see Murray as his main challenger-they seemed to be the dominant duo in the last quarter of 2012.

French is dependent on Nadal being physically fit. If he aint-he wont. If he is, it's still gonna be hard for him-harder than previous years-why? It's all he has now-clay, i mean, he can't win outside clay-or at least he hasn't for two years, that's significant, eggs in one basket.

Wimbledon-this is close again between Djoko and Murray. I picked Djoko because he's done it before. But if
Murray does it hurray-i'm a brit, so i'm biased. come on you miserable git.

US Open-Murray-though if it's Djoko i wouldn't be surprised.

As much as i love Fed i think Wimbledon was his last. it was the only slam final he's got to in a while and Murray wont' role over so easy in the future.
It's hard to predict Nadal, if he aint fit he's gonna slide greasily down the rankings. It's a well established scientific principle that if you wanna be good a tennis you need knees. 
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2012, 01:09:26 PM »
So Jesse, since you tend to use the past as guide to the future, I assume your 2011 predictions were based on 2010 GS results. Let's have a look in that case.

In 2010 we see this:

AO - Federer
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
USO - Nadal

What we see in 2011 is this. A complete turn around of events.

AO - Djokovic
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Djokovic
USO - Djokovic

So in that above scenario, only Nadal winning RG was almost a sure thing; all other predictions were wrong. Not only that, your 2012 predictions would have then been based on 2011 but what we see is this:

AO - Djokovic
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Federer
USO - Murray

Another major turn around of events yet again when we had 4 different winners, whereas your predictions would have probably included Djokovic winning the majority of the Slams - at least 2 or 3 of them. So it's more than likely that your predictions, this time around, won't be right once again, as you are not taking the uncertainty factor into account at all, which played a major part in all those past results. So past, in other words, is clearly not a good indication of the future.

So my prediction of your predictions is this, you will be proven wrong again and it's simply because you can't predict the future based on the past.


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Offline jesse james

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2012, 04:21:47 PM »
So Jesse, since you tend to use the past as guide to the future, I assume your 2011 predictions were based on 2010 GS results. Let's have a look in that case.

In 2010 we see this:

AO - Federer
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
USO - Nadal

What we see in 2011 is this. A complete turn around of events.

AO - Djokovic
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Djokovic
USO - Djokovic

So in that above scenario, only Nadal winning RG was almost a sure thing; all other predictions were wrong. Not only that, your 2012 predictions would have then been based on 2011 but what we see is this:

AO - Djokovic
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Federer
USO - Murray

Another major turn around of events yet again when we had 4 different winners, whereas your predictions would have probably included Djokovic winning the majority of the Slams - at least 2 or 3 of them. So it's more than likely that your predictions, this time around, won't be right once again, as you are not taking the uncertainty factor into account at all, which played a major part in all those past results. So past, in other words, is clearly not a good indication of the future.

So my prediction of your predictions is this, you will be proven wrong again and it's simply because you can't predict the future based on the past.

ok, lets assume you're correct and you can't predict the future from the past, what makes you think the next breath you take won't kill you? why do you take it, what's making you think you should do it?

The crucial word you casually overlooked in your post is 'guide'. I don't avow that the past is the future, but it's singularly the best, and indeed only way we have to predict the future-which is why i haven't simply replicated 2012's results.
Lets assume we weren't using the past as any sort of guide and our predictions were entirely based on deductive reasoning.
What possible deductive calculation can lead me to make a prediction about the future other than the past? surely it's recent performance that does that-in other words inductive reasoning. I wont be opting for Richard Gasquet, because his performance in recent years-and crucially last year doesn't lead me to believe he'll win. If i had access to some new information i could change my mind-if i heard testimony to the effect that in practice he was a transformed player and everyone around him was astonished at the breathtaking paradigm change in his performance, i just might reconsider-through this is doubtful.
what you, and i and everyone else uses is recent history-it's not axiomatically perfect-even the weather is hard to predict, but given that i live in the UK, i expect temperatures close to the seasonal norm, based on, of all things, past experience. 
Of course we can't predict with certainty who'll win slams in 2013, but nobody is claiming that anyway, it's a straw man argument.
For example, i don't know if Murray will win another slam or not, but most of the recent slam winners Djokovic, Nadal, Del Potro and Federer have done. Del potro hasn't-yet, but the other three have-so it's reasonable that Murray will, given that the pattern of recent history shows players who win one slam will win more than one slam, and so on.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2012, 04:31:18 PM by jesse james »
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2012, 02:08:56 PM »
I donít have a choice in case of my next breath as thatís my only option, so whether itís going to kill me or not is irrelevant. In other words, I must breathe since my whole physical existence is depending on it.

In this particular case, is past really the decider when I have already showed you that the past hasnít exactly reflected the future? And what makes you really think that the past is the only decider? What about the surface? Circumstances? Rosol anyone? Injuries etc.? Have you taken those into account? In fact, Iíd rather make my tennis predictions based on the surface than anything else. And their recent performance. Hard court, for example, you chose as Nole as the AO winner simply because heís won it 3 times already, but Andy too has made the AO final 2 times already and judging by their very recent form, the margin between Andy and Nole is even (1 all in GS hard courts Ė AO and USO). So if anything, the most important factor here is their performance against each other on this specific surface Ė not the past even though Nole has won it more times than Andy.   

Letís move on to grass Ė the advantage again lies with Andy simply because heís the better player on grass court. Both Nole and Andy have met on grass only 1 time and that was the Olympics semi this year, and Andy took him out in straight sets. Yes, Nole has the experience winning Wimbledon already but Andy has made Wimbledon semi 3 times in a row and won the Olympics gold medal beating none other than Federer just this year and has given Federer a run for his money at the Wimbledon final as well. His overall performance on grass is better than Noleís 1 time win. Nole, in fact, will have to win more than 1 Wimbledon title to establish the fact that, heís a great player on grass too and be much more consistent. His win on grass against Nadal just last year might well just be a fluke. Or else how do you explain his loss to Federer just this year on grass? Nole, in fact, doesnít have a grass title other than last yearís Wimbledon. This year, he had two chances to win 1 and he had failed to do it. One was won by Federer and the other one was by Andy. And this is simply because these two are more natural on grass. Andy has 3 titles along with all those Wimbledon semis and 1 final btw. 

Of course you canít pick Gasquet as the winner since we have 4 players who have much better chance to win each Slam than him, but itís still not a certain thing despite the past, but more importantly, that wasnít the point. While itís limited to 4 players only, the order of the winners arenít remotely as predictable as you think and thatís judging by the past btw.

As to the weather, well , thatís a forecast which tends to be more precise and specific as you have a lot more information available to work with and because of their proximity.  After all, they donít have to predict whatís going to happen next year but rather the next two weeks. If they make prediction about next year then yes, itís going to be based on the past but itís not going to be accurate.

Predictions, on the other hand, tend to have much bigger sense and range. For example, you can totally say, there would be a major earth quake next year even when you have no information available. People and psychics tend to make these sorts of predictions all the time; you wonít see weather channel making prediction like this, simply because they tend to rely on the information they have in hand. Itís more about being scientifically correct, whereas predictions are more about probabilities and possibilities - hence the much broader range. Itís not merely based on the past but also about gut feelings, educated guesses and some other elements as some tend to perceive ahead of time.

Some things are definitely predictable based on the past but those are not predictions in the first place as they are more in line with scientific facts (still not a certainty because of the uncertainty factor Ė that will be always there). No oneís going to predict that he or sheís going to die the next time they breathe, because the probabilities and possibilities of happening that are very slim. Predictions arenít supposed to like that.
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2012, 02:11:11 PM »
free drinks for queen emma the great forever. :))
 
yes sports fans she is that special.

Sorry, Queen Emma couldn't be there on Friday night because she got free drinks from her friends as it was her birthday. But she makes promises that she'll be there some time soon. If for nothing, free drinks it is.
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2012, 02:22:37 PM »
Jesse, why do you feel the need to support Andy only because he's a fellow Brit? Why must you choose or fall under this narrow concept of nationalism? Also, does this mean you wouldn't have liked him as a player if he wasn't a Brit? How primitive.
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Offline Brick Top

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2012, 02:35:58 PM »
free drinks for queen emma the great forever. :))
 
yes sports fans she is that special.

Sorry, Queen Emma couldn't be there on Friday night because she got free drinks from her friends as it was her birthday. But she makes promises that she'll be there some time soon. If for nothing, free drinks it is.

We are broke atm.

Offline FedFanForever

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2012, 03:49:57 PM »
All this drinking going on - get yourselves to an AA meeting!  :rofl_2:
Then we will fight in the shade.

Offline jesse james

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2012, 05:12:10 PM »
I donít have a choice in case of my next breath as thatís my only option, so whether itís going to kill me or not is irrelevant. In other words, I must breathe since my whole physical existence is depending on it.

In this particular case, is past really the decider when I have already showed you that the past hasnít exactly reflected the future? And what makes you really think that the past is the only decider? What about the surface? Circumstances? Rosol anyone? Injuries etc.? Have you taken those into account? In fact, Iíd rather make my tennis predictions based on the surface than anything else. And their recent performance. Hard court, for example, you chose as Nole as the AO winner simply because heís won it 3 times already, but Andy too has made the AO final 2 times already and judging by their very recent form, the margin between Andy and Nole is even (1 all in GS hard courts Ė AO and USO). So if anything, the most important factor here is their performance against each other on this specific surface Ė not the past even though Nole has won it more times than Andy.   

You're missing the point with the taking of your next breath. You're suggesting you don't have a choice, but you do have a choice-to breath or not to breath, that is the option. By saying your 'whole physical existence depends on it', you recognise instantly the connection with breathing and existance and the causal relationship between the two.  You always take the breathing option because it always works. You never seriously consider not breathing because based on past experience-and i mean that of others too,  you've learned that it's the option that works-time and time again, this is inductive reasoning. If both options really were equally plausible in terms of life expectancy every breath would be equally indeterminate, and thus inequitable in terms of the likelihood of live or death.

You keep reiterating your initial mistake. The point about surface is the same, we make our conclusions inductively-how do we know how good a player is on a given surface? from his or her performance on the same or similar surfaces in the past.
What you're essentially doing is constructing a straw man argument, your suggesting that because one cannot know the future absolutely one cannot make valid hypothesis about the future at all based on the past. But you believe the sun will rise tomorrow because it always has done in the past, but it's not certain. You could argue that the laws of nature that held today will hold tomorrow and given no intervening physical entity the sun should carry on as before, but the laws of nature themselves are established inductively. Gravity has always been attractive (leaving aside the rapid inflation period in the early universe) .Gravity has always proven to be attractive in the past, so we reason it will be in the future, we use our on history and the histories of others.
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Offline jesse james

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2012, 05:21:43 PM »
Jesse, why do you feel the need to support Andy only because he's a fellow Brit? Why must you choose or fall under this narrow concept of nationalism? Also, does this mean you wouldn't have liked him as a player if he wasn't a Brit? How primitive.

the concept of nationalism i was referring to was anything but narrow.  Having some notional solidarity with fellow citizens is what underpins things like the welfare state, and all the axioms of liberalism.  It implies i have a tenuous solidarity with those who share my country over and above those who don't. Just as i have duties and concerns for friends and family that i don't extend to those outside that group within my country.
Whether i'ld like Murray as a player if i wasn't a brit is like saying would i like him if i were a woman or 40 years older, i haven't the foggiest. The fact is i am and i do.
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Offline jesse james

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2012, 05:30:55 PM »


As to the weather, well , thatís a forecast which tends to be more precise and specific as you have a lot more information available to work with and because of their proximity.  After all, they donít have to predict whatís going to happen next year but rather the next two weeks. If they make prediction about next year then yes, itís going to be based on the past but itís not going to be accurate.

Predictions, on the other hand, tend to have much bigger sense and range. For example, you can totally say, there would be a major earth quake next year even when you have no information available. People and psychics tend to make these sorts of predictions all the time; you wonít see weather channel making prediction like this, simply because they tend to rely on the information they have in hand. Itís more about being scientifically correct, whereas predictions are more about probabilities and possibilities - hence the much broader range. Itís not merely based on the past but also about gut feelings, educated guesses and some other elements as some tend to perceive ahead of time.

Some things are definitely predictable based on the past but those are not predictions in the first place as they are more in line with scientific facts (still not a certainty because of the uncertainty factor Ė that will be always there). No oneís going to predict that he or sheís going to die the next time they breathe, because the probabilities and possibilities of happening that are very slim. Predictions arenít supposed to like that.

Can't make out what you're point is here, but you're essentially agreeing with the inductive principle, there's nothing you've said that argues against the past as a guide to the future. How would you know what an earthquake was if not that they've happened in the past, how would you know about the vulnerable points on geological faults if it wasn't past associations of them with earthquakes?
This is elementary, it's how the world works. Of course there's uncertainty-but nobody has claimed there isn't, what is being claimed is that the past is the best and only guide to the future.
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Offline Clay Death

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #32 on: December 11, 2012, 12:14:44 AM »
free drinks for queen emma the great forever. :))
 
yes sports fans she is that special.

Sorry, Queen Emma couldn't be there on Friday night because she got free drinks from her friends as it was her birthday. But she makes promises that she'll be there some time soon. If for nothing, free drinks it is.


you should have told me that it was your birthday coming up queen emma the great. i could have started a temporary brithday thread for you at our chat section so your friends could come over there and wish you a happy birthday.


anyway better late than never. happy birthday. :)

Offline Alex

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #33 on: December 11, 2012, 03:20:22 PM »
Happy birthday Emma. Gosh, you are getting old. I kinda prefer girls 18-21 (skinny too)  :rasta: :smartie:

Offline Clay Death

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #34 on: December 11, 2012, 04:07:45 PM »
 :))

Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2012, 10:11:13 AM »

Quote
We are broke atm.

My presence is toxic. You will not need alcohol when I am there. Understand you mortal being? lol
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 10:28:16 AM by Emma »
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2012, 10:16:43 AM »
free drinks for queen emma the great forever. :))
 
yes sports fans she is that special.

Sorry, Queen Emma couldn't be there on Friday night because she got free drinks from her friends as it was her birthday. But she makes promises that she'll be there some time soon. If for nothing, free drinks it is.


you should have told me that it was your birthday coming up queen emma the great. i could have started a temporary brithday thread for you at our chat section so your friends could come over there and wish you a happy birthday.


anyway better late than never. happy birthday. :)

Thank you. Queen Emma acknowledges the generosity. She tends to be "humble and kind" like ahem...Federer.

My friends however arenít familiar with tennis forums. They are more into Facebook, twitter all that crap. This reminds me, I need to have a new sets of friends.
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Offline Emma

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2012, 10:30:34 AM »
Happy birthday Emma. Gosh, you are getting old. I kinda prefer girls 18-21 (skinny too)  :rasta: :smartie:

Kinda prefer 18-21? Are you being modest? Because as far as I know, you kinda perfer 11-14 because you like it how they ask you, "so what are you thinking right now?"

Besides, I donít age and you should be so lucky. haha
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Offline tennisfan78

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #38 on: December 13, 2012, 11:28:27 PM »


Rafa's performance at the AO and the hard court season of 2013 can affect many players chances through out the year in my opinion.
If Rafa does not defend his final at the AO and SF appearances at Indian wells and Miami he might fall out of top 4. (assuming the other top 3 defend their performances ofcourse).

Which means that Rafa will get to play with some one in top 4 in earlier rounds (before semis) come french open which can change a lot of things and open up opportunities for some one else.

Any thoughts?

Offline oracle86

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Re: Predictions for 2013
« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2012, 07:30:34 AM »


Rafa's performance at the AO and the hard court season of 2013 can affect many players chances through out the year in my opinion.
If Rafa does not defend his final at the AO and SF appearances at Indian wells and Miami he might fall out of top 4. (assuming the other top 3 defend their performances ofcourse).

Which means that Rafa will get to play with some one in top 4 in earlier rounds (before semis) come french open which can change a lot of things and open up opportunities for some one else.

Any thoughts?


It would be hilarious if Rafa ended up in Nole's quarter.
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