And if Federer comes back from his 2 months off rejuvenated and plays very well and defends his 3 titles (Madrid, Wimbledon, Cincinatti)?
Something like this:
8715 : current
0000 : Madrid - W
0000 : Rome - SF
+480 : RG - F
-150 : Halle - doesn't play
0000 : Wimbledon - W
-450 : Olympics - F points dropped
+360 : Rogers Cup (Montreal) - SF
0000 : Cincinnati - W
+840 : US Open - F
9795 Post US Open
That might be enough points to put him at #2, depending on how Rafa and Andy do. Rafa gains points if he plays better at Madrid and Wimbledon and does well following that, especially at the US Open. And then he can only gain points in the fall. I notice he has nothing scheduled between Wimbledon and the US Open. He might jump on the clay again, instead of Montreal and Cincy.
Murray can gain points if he does better on clay than in last few years, if he can manage to win Wimbledon and do well in the summer hard court series including the US Open.
Djokovic has been far ahead, but he doesn't need more losses like in Miami where he drops 910 points to 12,270. If he can play well on clay and at least defend his points, he'll be hard to catch at #1. But he has a lot of points to defend post Wimbledon to the end of the year. He'll have to be extremely consistent to do so, and I'm not happy with his somewhat erratic play of late (does well one set, then loses focus). I think he could use a break somewhere along the line.
Ferrer can hang in there, and even if he is second in the race now, I think it is going to be tough for him to stay there once the big tournaments come around unless the top 4 falter.
Del Potro can continue to make headway if he doesn't overplay. He has an opportunity to gain points on clay and he may put in a surprise good showing at Wimbledon if he plays like he did at the Olympics.
This is tennis. Anything can happen. If Federer isn't rejuvenated by his break and continues to do relatively poorly, he could drop out of the top 4 for sure. Nadal could be super energized and confident and go on to win the rest of the majors as he did in 2010. If Murray can't improve on clay, then I think it will be tough for him to advance more, but if he does improve, watch out.