Author Topic: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)  (Read 6814 times)

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Offline JonG

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #140 on: August 21, 2013, 06:43:54 PM »
the tip about when they started calculations

I'm only guessing on that. I'm sure it is generally accepted that the ATP formed at Forest Hills, but they may have sorted it all out before and announced it at Forest Hills.

The 23 August date for the first ranking list doesn't quite tie up.

Did they just do 51 weeks starting with the 72 US Open and ending with Indianapolis and Merion 73?

Or did they start a week earlier with Orange and Merion 72?

Or were the first rankings published a few days later than commonly stated so as to include Toronto and Orange 73?
« Last Edit: August 21, 2013, 06:44:27 PM by JonG »

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #141 on: August 22, 2013, 01:57:36 AM »
I'm only guessing on that. I'm sure it is generally accepted that the ATP formed at Forest Hills, but they may have sorted it all out before and announced it at Forest Hills.

The 23 August date for the first ranking list doesn't quite tie up.

Did they just do 51 weeks starting with the 72 US Open and ending with Indianapolis and Merion 73?

Or did they start a week earlier with Orange and Merion 72?

Or were the first rankings published a few days later than commonly stated so as to include Toronto and Orange 73?

Yes, whatever they've done, it's really hard to dig it out right now. It should become irrelevant once I get there, but the fact that the operators (and not the computers) have made a lot of errors when it came to assigning tournament types to certain players seems obvious. Both the equations and the inconsistency reveal that. 43.5% error is A LOT. Swish also noticed a variable seeming to have different values in two different equations. The system I found seems to be the best approximation of the inconsistencies present in the original rankings. I don't think we can remake the originals unless we know exactly what the operators used for their input in case of each player. So, I'm gonna go with these approximations which have the Top 10 at least totally unchanged with very few imprecision when it comes to their points. :)

And I have already confirmed a 1974-1975 system thanks to the data you provided. I'll just play with a little more, compute rankings to end of 1973 and will post here when I have something new. :)

Offline JonG

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #142 on: August 22, 2013, 06:39:07 PM »
Here are the 75 GP grades:

Roland Garros   TC
Wimbledon   TC
US Open   TC
Hamburg   AA
Rome   AA
Nottingham   AA
Washington   AA
Louisville   AA
Indianapolis   AA
Toronto   AA
Boston   AA
Los Angeles   AA
San Francisco   AA
Sydney Indoor   AA
Tehran   AA
Tokyo   AA
Stockholm   AA
Johannesburg   AA
Madrid   A
Barcelona   A
Manila   A
Buenos Aires   A
London   A
Calcutta   A
Australian Open   B
Munich   B
Bournemouth   B
Dusseldorf   B
Bastad   B
Gstaad   B
Kitzbuhel   B
Chicago   B
Hilversum   B
Cincinnati   B
North Conway   B
Columbus   B
South Orange   B
Maui   B
Melbourne Indoor   B
Perth   B
Paris Indoor   B
Hong Kong   B

Philadelphia was $115k, the other 24 WCT events $60k each.

Tucson was $175k, Vegas $150k.

Offline Litotes

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Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #144 on: August 23, 2013, 03:24:36 AM »
Whoah...

Seeded players and not top players. This changes a lot of what I previously thought. Awesome.

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #145 on: August 23, 2013, 03:36:15 AM »
...Except the 1973 rankings of course.

There can be no change to that, it won't work. A system that would create good proportions for most players won't work for many of the other players. Connors for instance would still be at 123, if I use a lower point-giving system that totals Nastase at 223 and Newcombe at 121, so that both can fit "bonus points" to reach their official totals. But Connors totals about 145 with this system, because he gets bonus points like crazy, either seed bonus points or rank bonus points.

This could be helpful for 1974+ though.

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #146 on: August 23, 2013, 03:40:14 AM »
An interesting thought:
Quote
Spencer confirms Bob Kramer’s memories, but insists that, “There were many weeks when for whatever reason the ‘computer’ didn’t work so I did the rankings by hand. I would print the previous rankings out on the large computer paper, lay it out on my living room floor, get on my hands and knees to mark out the week(s) that were dropping off, add the new results and calculate the new rankings.”

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #147 on: August 23, 2013, 03:43:02 AM »
Yes, I too noticed that part. Some errors are to be expected....

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #148 on: August 23, 2013, 03:43:15 AM »
Maybe there's more detail in this book than:

No 1

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #149 on: August 23, 2013, 03:46:57 AM »
Looks like an interesting book. I think I'll order it  :)  I can let you know if there's more information inside, if you're unsure it's worth buying.

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #150 on: August 23, 2013, 03:52:02 AM »
I saw a preview, I think it's more about the players than details about the rankings.

A larger version of that image featured in the article would be helpful.

This seed bonus system seems a contradictory factor. Even if it's obvious the bonus system started in 1974, it seems a contraction to the fact that Evans himself said it was 6p for 1-8, 4p for 9-16 and 2p for 17-24. There were no seeds below 16, and that was at Grand Slams. How could this system have worked on regular tournaments? It couldn't. The system was not seed based, or it varied depending on the number of seeds. Most were 8-seed tournaments, which would have awarded 2p.

So, in a 16+ seed system, Evans system worked. In a 16-seed system 4p-2p, and in a 8-seed system 2p for beating a seed.

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #151 on: August 23, 2013, 04:24:21 AM »
Don't know if it will lead to anything, but I found the article author on Twitter and asked him if it was possible to get a better look at it. Had to register on Twitter for it, never been there before.

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #152 on: August 23, 2013, 04:33:25 AM »
What the... :scared: :scared: :scared:

Quote
===========================================
Jimmy Connors
1. Australian Open [CAT-D] - W - 40p
2. Salisbury [CAT-D] - W - 40p
3. Hampton [CAT-D] - W - 40p
4. Nottingham [CAT-B] - QF - 20p
5. Wimbledon [TC] - W - 120p
6. Indianapolis [CAT-B] - W - 80p
7. Montreal [CAT-B] - R16 - 10p
8. South Orange [CAT-D] - DEF - 0p
9. US Open [TC] - W - 120p
10. Los Angeles [CAT-B] - W - 80p
11. San Francisco [CAT-B] - QF - 20p
12. London [CAT-C] - W - 60p
13. Johannesburg [CAT-B] - W - 80p
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 710p
BONUS: beat Dent at AO (9/16) - 2p
       beat Alexander at AO (3/16) - 6p
       beat Mayer at Salisbury (7/8) - 2p
       beat Nastase at Hampton (2/8) - 4p
       beat Kodes at Wimbledon (6/16) - 4p
       beat Rosewall at Wimbledon (9/16) - 2p
       beat Pohmann at Indianapolis (10/16) - 2p
       beat Parun at Indianapolis (8/16) - 4p
       beat Orantes at Indianapolis (4/16) - 6p
       beat Borg at Indianapolis (3/16) - 6p
       beat Rosewall at USO (5/16) - 4p
       beat Metreveli at USO (13/16) - 2p
       beat Kodes at USO (12/16) - 2p
       beat Case at LA (14/16) - 2p
       beat Pattison at LA (12/16) - 2p
       beat Solomon at LA (7/16) - 4p
       beat Dibbs at SF (10/16) - 2p
       beat Okker at London (4/4) - 2p
FINAL: 768p / 13 = 59.08
===========================================
John Newcombe
1. Australian Open [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
2. St Petersburg WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
3. Hempstead WCT [CAT-D] - F - 30p
4. Lacosta WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
5. Tuscon [CAT-A] - W - 100p
6. Atlanta WCT [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
7. New Orleans WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
8. Orlando WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
9. Charlotte [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
10. St Louis [CAT-D] - SF - 20p
11. Las Vegas [CAT-A] - SF - 50p
12. Nottingham [CAT-B] - R16 - 10p
13. Wimbledon [TC] - QF - 30p
14. US Open [TC] - SF - 60p
15. Maui [CAT-D] - W - 40p
16. Tokyo [CAT-C] - W - 60p
17. Sydney [CAT-C] - W - 60p
18. Adelaide [CAT-D] - SF - 20p
19. Hong Kong [CAT-D] - F - 30p
20. Manila [CAT-D] - SF - 20p
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 710p
BONUS: beat Phillips-Moore at AO (14/16) - 2p
       beat Stockton at St Peterburg (8/8) - 2p
       beat Gottfried at Lacosta (6/8) - 2p
       beat Smith at Lacosta (5/8) - 2p
       beat Smith at Tuscon (5/8) - 2p
       beat Ashe at Tuscon (4/8) - 4p
       beat Ramirez at Orlando (7/8) - 2p
       beat Ashe at USO (8/16) - 4p
       beat Parun at Maui (6/8) - 2p
       beat Tanner at Maui (5/8) - 2p
       beat Parun at Sydney (8/8) - 2p
       beat Roche at Sydney (5/8) - 2p
       beat Richey at Sydney (6/8) - 2p
FINAL: 750p / 20 = 37.5
===========================================
Rod Laver
1. Philadelphia WCT [CAT-B] - W - 80p
2. Bologna WCT [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
3. London WCT [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
4. Barcelona WCT [CAT-D] - R16 - 5p
5. Sao Paulo WCT [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
6. Tuscon ATP [CAT-A] - QF - 25p
7. Palm Desert WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
8. Tokyo WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
9. Denver WCT [CAT-D] - QF - 10p
10. Houston WCT [CAT-D] - W - 40p
11. Las Vegas ATP [CAT-A] - W - 100p
12. Bretton Woods [CAT-D] - W - 40p
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 410p
BONUS: beat Okker at Philadelphia (3/16) - 6p
       beat Kodes at Philadelphia (7/16) - 4p
       beat Ashe at Philadelphia (8/16) - 4p
       beat Ashe at Palm Desert WCT (1/2) - 2p
       beat Borg at Tokyo WCT (2/2) - 2p
       beat Borg at Houston (2/8) - 4p
       beat Stockton at Las Vegas (13/16) - 2p
       beat Okker at Las Vegas (2/16) - 6p
       beat Riessen at Las vegas (11/16) - 2p
       beat Alexander at Bretton Woods (6/8) - 2p
       beat Solomon at Bretton Woods (2/8) - 4p
FINAL: 448p / 12 = 37.33

The seed bonus system actually works... perfectly! :scared:
« Last Edit: August 23, 2013, 04:34:25 AM by Slasher1985 »

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #153 on: August 23, 2013, 04:34:48 AM »
Don't know if it will lead to anything, but I found the article author on Twitter and asked him if it was possible to get a better look at it. Had to register on Twitter for it, never been there before.

Fingers crossed.

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #154 on: August 23, 2013, 04:35:17 AM »
That's good news  :yahoo:

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #155 on: August 23, 2013, 04:51:56 AM »
At first glance:

16 seeds:

beating 1-4 = 6p
beating 5-8 = 4p
beating 9-16 = 2p

8 seeds:

beating 1 = 6p
beating 2-4 = 4p
beating 5-8 = 2p

4 seeds:
beating 1-2 = 4p
beating 3-4 = 2p

2 seeds:
beating 1-2 = 2p

To all players I had previously calculated for 1974, this fits like a glove.

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #156 on: August 23, 2013, 05:49:15 AM »
Don't know if it will lead to anything, but I found the article author on Twitter and asked him if it was possible to get a better look at it. Had to register on Twitter for it, never been there before.

Fingers crossed.

I got it! Nice and visible on pdf. I'll email it to you once I get home from work  :))

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #157 on: August 23, 2013, 06:01:18 AM »
Can you try a PM here? :))

I'm dying of curiosity... :))

Offline Litotes

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #158 on: August 23, 2013, 06:09:38 AM »
Can you try a PM here? :))

I'm dying of curiosity... :))

Silly me, I can just send from my work email, I have your address here tooo from an earlier PM. Will arrive shortly  :king:

Offline Slasher1985

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Re: Full Open Era Rankings (RESEARCH PHASE)
« Reply #159 on: August 23, 2013, 06:12:47 AM »
Holy s**t man :cool:

That's gold. The freakin 1973 system. It's all there. :gleam:

Thank you so very much. The best Christmas present I received in my life. ://