Author Topic: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year  (Read 4433 times)

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Offline Clay Death

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who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« on: April 21, 2013, 08:36:49 PM »
based on the developments and slowly shifting dynamics, which have actually been in the works since the end of 2010, what are your thoughts on RG?

is nole the heavy favorite now? what about murray?


what can nadal do to capture another RG crown? what will it take?

Offline FreakyGOAT > CD

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2013, 08:42:51 PM »
Too close to call at the moment. I feel like if today was a BO5 match then Nole would've lost. We'll see what happens from here until Rome, but I still feel like Nadal is the favorite (although I don't want him to be).
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Online Swish

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2013, 08:58:53 PM »
Djokovic. He has it working again.
 
Nadal will take a year to get back in shape.
 
 

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2013, 09:04:54 PM »
supreme fitness takes over 2-3 years to achieve but can be lost in less than 3 months

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2013, 09:10:20 PM »
supreme fitness takes over 2-3 years to achieve but can be lost in less than 3 months

I know how long it took DelPo, his fitness dropped like a rock and is very difficult to get it back again.
 
In the NBA it takes years to be able to go all out all game, in other sports it works this way too.
 
With strong unrelenting training it can be shorter but with tennis most of the year you have to keep other areas of the game up to standards.

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2013, 09:14:49 PM »
tennis is more demanding than ever now general swish.
 
its clear nadal has become lazy and complacent. this has been slowly happening since the end of 2010.
 
 
fitness was his biggest weapon really. that is what allowed him to fight with great intensity for every single point.
 
now he cant even get to some of the shots, much less do anything with them.
 
I just ready somewhere that he was actually complaining about the lack of intensity for some of his points today.
 
translation: I am a fat buffoon now and I get tired. I also cant move.

Online Swish

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2013, 09:25:12 PM »
tennis is more demanding than ever now general swish.
 
its clear nadal has become lazy and complacent. this has been slowly happening since the end of 2010.
 
 
fitness was his biggest weapon really. that is what allowed him to fight with great intensity for every single point.
 
now he cant even get to some of the shots, much less do anything with them.
 
I just ready somewhere that he was actually complaining about the lack of intensity for some of his points today.
 
translation: I am a fat buffoon now and I get tired. I also cant move.

Nadal will be fine but needs time, I think he has 2-3 good years left.
 
He also is playing too much for now.
 
He should have skipped IW and worked on fitness 24/7.
He knows that's one of his most important assets and coming back with a heavy schedule isn't letting his body adapt.
 
Basically pushing his body like this so early is what gets him in physical trouble.

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2013, 09:32:50 PM »
indian wells was a tragic mistake that may even cost him at RG this year.
 
he could have used those 12 days to stay on clay. his legendary ground game is nearly gone.
 
and he still refuses to see the light.
 
that is all he has and all he can do: all he can do is hit backhands and forehands.
 
there are no easy points on the serve for him and no easy points on the return. so the ground game has to be bullet proof the way it used to be.
 
and he also has zero confidence at the net. he is 1/2 scared to death of the damn net.
 
 
it is sad to see but you knew this was going to happen: you fail to improve on a single front in 4 years and then you drop your fitness. so of course this is what you get.
 
 
I just read that he lost 11 of last 12 points after leading 6-5 in the 2nd set. how pathetic is that.

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2013, 09:44:30 PM »
indian wells was a tragic mistake that may even cost him at RG this year.
 
he could have used those 12 days to stay on clay. his legendary ground game is nearly gone.
 
and he still refuses to see the light.
 
that is all he has and all he can do: all he can do is hit backhands and forehands.
 
there are no easy points on the serve for him and no easy points on the return. so the ground game has to be bullet proof the way it used to be.
 
and he also has zero confidence at the net. he is 1/2 scared to death of the damn net.
 
 
it is sad to see but you knew this was going to happen: you fail to improve on a single front in 4 years and then you drop your fitness. so of course this is what you get.
 
 
I just read that he lost 11 of last 12 points after leading 6-5 in the 2nd set. how pathetic is that.

Djokovic was zoned at that time, Nadal knew it and broke down mentally.
 
Gulbis said something so true recently:
If you practice very hard then your mental game will follow.
 
What this means for Nadal is that his mental game is weakening because he can't trust his physical part to be there when he needs it.

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2013, 09:52:54 PM »
indian wells was a tragic mistake that may even cost him at RG this year.
 
he could have used those 12 days to stay on clay. his legendary ground game is nearly gone.
 
and he still refuses to see the light.
 
that is all he has and all he can do: all he can do is hit backhands and forehands.
 
there are no easy points on the serve for him and no easy points on the return. so the ground game has to be bullet proof the way it used to be.
 
and he also has zero confidence at the net. he is 1/2 scared to death of the damn net.
 
 
it is sad to see but you knew this was going to happen: you fail to improve on a single front in 4 years and then you drop your fitness. so of course this is what you get.
 
 
I just read that he lost 11 of last 12 points after leading 6-5 in the 2nd set. how pathetic is that.

Djokovic was zoned at that time, Nadal knew it and broke down mentally.
 
Gulbis said something so true recently:
If you practice very hard then your mental game will follow.
 
What this means for Nadal is that his mental game is weakening because he can't trust his physical part to be there when he needs it.




that is 100% spot on.




the most tragic part of all this that both borg and nadal brought about and expedited their own demise while well in their primes:

borg simply walked away from the game while nadal said NO to any and all improvements in his game and his fitness after 2010.



borg walked away at age 25 while nadal said no to any and all improvements in his game and his fitness at age 24.

Online Swish

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2013, 10:07:34 PM »
indian wells was a tragic mistake that may even cost him at RG this year.
 
he could have used those 12 days to stay on clay. his legendary ground game is nearly gone.
 
and he still refuses to see the light.
 
that is all he has and all he can do: all he can do is hit backhands and forehands.
 
there are no easy points on the serve for him and no easy points on the return. so the ground game has to be bullet proof the way it used to be.
 
and he also has zero confidence at the net. he is 1/2 scared to death of the damn net.
 
 
it is sad to see but you knew this was going to happen: you fail to improve on a single front in 4 years and then you drop your fitness. so of course this is what you get.
 
 
I just read that he lost 11 of last 12 points after leading 6-5 in the 2nd set. how pathetic is that.

Djokovic was zoned at that time, Nadal knew it and broke down mentally.
 
Gulbis said something so true recently:
If you practice very hard then your mental game will follow.
 
What this means for Nadal is that his mental game is weakening because he can't trust his physical part to be there when he needs it.




that is 100% spot on.




the most tragic part of all this that both borg and nadal brought about and expedited their own demise while well in their primes:

borg simply walked away from the game while nadal said NO to any and all improvements in his game and his fitness after 2010.



borg walked away at age 25 while nadal said no to any and all improvements in his game and his fitness at age 24.

It's not over for Nadal, this loss may be what's needed to push him.
 
Once your at the top the danger is forgetting how you got there.
 
 

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2013, 10:21:12 PM »
well going by your theory,  he needs to get his fat,  sorry ass kicked by carlos berlocq early in Barcelona.
 
that may really force him to forget about poker, soccer, and golf for a little while
 
 
well that may not happen but I can see him lose the final in Barcelona. keep in mind that he has managed to lose 13-14 finals now since 2010.
 
and this is the man that used to win almost all of the finals.

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2013, 10:28:58 PM »
well going by your theory,  he needs to get his fat,  sorry ass kicked by carlos berlocq early in Barcelona.
 
that may really force him to forget about poker, soccer, and golf for a little while
 
 
well that may not happen but I can see him lose the final in Barcelona. keep in mind that he has managed to lose 13-14 finals now since 2010.
 
and this is the man that used to win almost all of the finals.

Remember how Fed made #1 last time.
 
I didn't think he could do it, no one did.
It was one of the most remarkable things he ever did.
 
Nadal has a challenge now, champions will come up against things like this and that's what defines them as warriors.
 
He has a chance to do something remarkable in turning things around.
Will he do it is where the interest lies.
 
 

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2013, 10:46:14 PM »
great point general swish.
 
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Offline monstertruck

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2013, 06:36:36 AM »
So is anyone putting up any money against Nadal at RG? :rofl_2:

Not me.

He certainly could lose in the later rounds, but I wouldn't put any cool cash on the line against him.
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Offline pawan89

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2013, 08:50:39 AM »
Nadal is the heavy favourite at RG. The only thing that would elevate anyone (aka Djokovic) over Nadal is if Djokovic can hand Nadal two more comfortable straight set losses at Madrid and Rome before heading into RG. And when I mean comfortable, that second set in Monte Carlo was not comfortable, that was Nadal's set to win and he lost it. RG best of 5 is going to be a different story.

The only person who comes close to being a heavy favourite apart from Nadal and Djokovic at this point might be Dimitrov. Or Fognini.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 08:51:34 AM by pawan89 »


Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2013, 11:14:58 AM »
Depends very much on how much Rafa and Nole can improve from MC. If they play like at MC, Nole will win. I don't think Bo5 would be an advantage for Rafa, he's the worse player at the moment and Nole has the fitness Bo5 requires. But Nole's title isn't yet sure, he's vulnerable as seen in matches against Youzhny and Monaco. He needs to improve, or otherwise Rafa, or even Roger or DelPo can beat him. Unless Nole and Rafa improve, Roger could win RG by playing his best tennis of last two years, even though he'd probably find a way to lose to Rafa even in his current form. And DelPo showed at IW that he can definitely challenge Nole and Rafa, yet his fitness is hardly enough for three sets.

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Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2013, 02:43:14 PM »
based on the developments and slowly shifting dynamics, which have actually been in the works since the end of 2010, what are your thoughts on RG?

is nole the heavy favorite now? what about murray?


what can nadal do to capture another RG crown? what will it take?

No one, unless it's Nadal, will ever be a HEAVY favorite at RG if Nadal plays. It would be border line idiotic to ever put money against Nadal on clay. He's the best clay courter of all time, and that's a fact. As for Murray, that's a laugh. He can compete with the best on hard courts and grass, but he's not good enough on clay. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes out before the quarters at RG.

The 'shifting dynamics', as I said, still aren't good enough to take Nadal away from being the favorite. All they've done is make him not as heavy a favorite. Look at 2011. Nole beat Rafa in straight sets at Madrid and Rome, but couldn't even make the final at RG.

The only thing Nadal needs to do to take yet another RG crown is work on his mental strength and confidence right now. That's what really broke down in the MC final. He got to pressure moments, and then sprayed errors.

indian wells was a tragic mistake that may even cost him at RG this year.
 
he could have used those 12 days to stay on clay. his legendary ground game is nearly gone.
 
and he still refuses to see the light.
 
that is all he has and all he can do: all he can do is hit backhands and forehands.
 
there are no easy points on the serve for him and no easy points on the return. so the ground game has to be bullet proof the way it used to be.
 
and he also has zero confidence at the net. he is 1/2 scared to death of the damn net.
 
 
it is sad to see but you knew this was going to happen: you fail to improve on a single front in 4 years and then you drop your fitness. so of course this is what you get.
 
 
I just read that he lost 11 of last 12 points after leading 6-5 in the 2nd set. how pathetic is that.

Playing IW wasn't a bad decision. He can't just play on clay and then expect to succeed on the grass courts directly after RG and then go into the US Open Series without having played HC all year. He needs to adjust his schedule some, but he can't be afraid to ever play on HC again. Play IW and skipping Miami was a smart decision. I think he should've skipped Barcelona, though.

All he can do is hit forehands and backhands? He's vastly improved his serve in the last three or four years and now does win points off his serve sometimes. Not as often as others, but it's not like he uses the serve as just a way to start a point like he did when he was younger. And if you think there's no easy points for him off the RoS, then you obviously didn't watch the Tsonga match. He attacked Tsonga's second a good bit, and even fired return aces off of hot first serves a few times.

No, he doesn't have much confidence at the net, but he approaches when he needs to and is a very capable volleyer.

Again, like I said in the other thread, saying that he refuses to improve is just flat out wrong. His game is a constant work in progress. Read the other thread if you want specifics on what he's done to his game recently. As far as dropping his fitness, not really. He can still run just as fast and seemingly can last just as long, he just has made a conscious decision to let some shots go in order to preserve his knees. But not many.

And to say that you HEARD that, I'm guessing you didn't watch the match at all. So insulting Rafa's play isn't a smart decision. He played just fine, and Nole was spot on all match. The reason he lost those points is because, as I've said, he isn't as mentally strong as he used to be. He sprays errors when the pressure moments come. But I'm sure he'll work on that and be ready to take RG again by the time it rolls around.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2013, 06:00:51 PM »
Depends very much on how much Rafa and Nole can improve from MC. If they play like at MC, Nole will win. I don't think Bo5 would be an advantage for Rafa, he's the worse player at the moment and Nole has the fitness Bo5 requires. But Nole's title isn't yet sure, he's vulnerable as seen in matches against Youzhny and Monaco. He needs to improve, or otherwise Rafa, or even Roger or DelPo can beat him. Unless Nole and Rafa improve, Roger could win RG by playing his best tennis of last two years, even though he'd probably find a way to lose to Rafa even in his current form. And DelPo showed at IW that he can definitely challenge Nole and Rafa, yet his fitness is hardly enough for three sets.


I would like to see some of the others step it up at RG. its time del potro, murray, and wawrinka made themselves count at RG. they need to make deep runs based on the draw.

I think roger will be fully prepared this year as well.

Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2013, 10:29:15 PM »
I don't see Murray ever making a threat at RG. He is really just not good on clay.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D