Author Topic: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year  (Read 4394 times)

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Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #40 on: April 23, 2013, 09:53:25 PM »
I'm glad to see Rafa fans fired up, but guess what ... Nole is awaiting around the corner ... I just have to annoy Herc tonight. Nole is the new King of Clay, or shall I say The Emperor on all surfaces. Herc, bring it on bud. I need some good fight   :rofl_2:

They'll get fired up a hell of a lot more if Nole takes Rome.  :)>>>>

Psshh, ain't happening, punk!  :)

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #41 on: April 23, 2013, 09:54:43 PM »
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Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #42 on: April 24, 2013, 12:13:37 PM »
When it comes to reallocating the seeds, I'm against it if it's done subjectively by not using Wimbledon-like formulas. There would otherwise be definitely many other players than only Rafa who's seed should be changed. One reason for adopting a formula for men's Wimby was to avoid subjective decisions, on women's side a committee still assesses possible seed changes. But now it's too late to make any Wimbledon-like formulas.

But, I think RG should adopt some kind of seeding formula, yet not quite the same as Wimbledon. Grass has so few tournaments that they need to take into account results from two years ago. Clay has much more tournaments and Wimby formula would favour the ones who play a lot on clay.  I made one kind of purely speculative RG seeding formula by doubling the mandatory clay events points plus adding the best non-mandatory clay event. The points for top 10 before this week would be as follows:

1   Novak Djokovic   15880
2   Roger Federer   10750
3   Rafael Nadal   9325
4   Andy Murray   9110
5   David Ferrer   8480
6   Tomas Berdych   5825
7   Juan Martin Del Potro   5810
8   Jo-Wilfried Tsonga   4865
9   Richard Gasquet   3995
10   Janko Tipsarevic   3800

And that doesn't take into account that some non-top 10 players could get a top 10 seed, I didn't count their points.

So, I could say that Rafa being #3 seed wouldn't be a terrible injustice. But, if they change Rafa's seed, they should do that also for other players who are better on clay than what their seed implies. Otherwise it looks only like protecting a big name and doing what TV channels want. Personally, I have nothing against the "de facto" final being played on Wednesday in QFs. At least there would be a chance for a surprise "de jure" finalist.

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Online Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #43 on: April 24, 2013, 12:41:01 PM »
August, are you sure Djokovic is 5000 points ahead of Fed. that doesn't seem right. over 15000 points, no way.

I wouldn't have a problem with RG changing seeds any way they want to but not a month before the tournament. the problem here is money, TV ratings etc. IMHO.

nobody wants to see Nole/Rafa in QF. then again, depending what happens in Madrid and Rome there is possibility of having Nole, Rafa and Fed in the same half (forgive me, I'm not 100% sure, so sick atm). that would be a complete disaster for the organizers ...

Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #44 on: April 24, 2013, 12:47:49 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Online Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #45 on: April 24, 2013, 12:51:56 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #46 on: April 24, 2013, 12:52:31 PM »
August, are you sure Djokovic is 5000 points ahead of Fed. that doesn't seem right. over 15000 points, no way.

I wouldn't have a problem with RG changing seeds any way they want to but not a month before the tournament. the problem here is money, TV ratings etc. IMHO.

nobody wants to see Nole/Rafa in QF. then again, depending what happens in Madrid and Rome there is possibility of having Nole, Rafa and Fed in the same half (forgive me, I'm not 100% sure, so sick atm). that would be a complete disaster for the organizers ...

That was just an speculative ranking where I had given extra weight for clay events, mandatories and best non-mandatory are doubled.

Djokovic: 12900 + 180 (Madrid) + 600 (Rome) + 1200 (RG) + 1000 (MC) = 15880
Federer: 8670 + 1000 (Madrid) + 360 (Rome) + 720 (RG) + 0 (no non-mandatories) = 10750

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Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #47 on: April 24, 2013, 12:53:46 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

At RG?  :confused1: For Venus?  :confused1:

That happens at Wimbledon as women don't have that seeding formula. They are seeded based on WTA ranking, and seeding committee may make some changes.

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Offline Litotes

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #48 on: April 24, 2013, 05:22:55 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

Both sisters got elevated in 2004, ranking 6 and 8 (among participants) they were given 2nd and 4th seed, for some reason. Both lost in the QF, corresponding to their rankings, not their seeds, and after that seedings have followed world ranking.

Online Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #49 on: April 24, 2013, 06:38:32 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

Both sisters got elevated in 2004, ranking 6 and 8 (among participants) they were given 2nd and 4th seed, for some reason. Both lost in the QF, corresponding to their rankings, not their seeds, and after that seedings have followed world ranking.
thanks LIt, you are like a walking encyclopedia  :). I forget things.

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #50 on: April 24, 2013, 06:45:53 PM »
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Offline Swish

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #51 on: April 24, 2013, 07:37:43 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.

it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.


Both sisters got elevated in 2004, ranking 6 and 8 (among participants) they were given 2nd and 4th seed, for some reason. Both lost in the QF, corresponding to their rankings, not their seeds, and after that seedings have followed world ranking.

thanks LIt, you are like a walking encyclopedia  :) . I forget things.

 

 
 John McEnroe says Rafael Nadal should be No. 1 seed at French Open
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
John McEnroe doesn’t think the French Open will adjust its seeding system to bump up seven-time champion Rafael Nadal. But he does believe it’s the fair thing to do, not just for Nadal but also for his primary competitors.
 
Nadal, ranked fifth, is racing to secure the No. 4 seed by the time the French Open sets its seeds on May 20 after the Rome Masters. He trails Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and David Ferrer, whose opening-match loss at the Barcelona Open on Wednesday improved Nadal’s chances of overtaking the fellow Spaniard for No. 4 at Roland Garros. If Nadal isn’t among the top-four seeds, he could face any of those four players in a potential quarterfinal.
 

“Let me put it to you this way: I guarantee you that none of those four guys, as great as they are, want to see him in the quarters,” McEnroe told Tennis.com. “Quite honestly, I would seed him number one. … think he deserves that. I think the other players deserve it.”
 
McEnroe said Djokovic is the only player who merits consideration to be seeded ahead of Nadal. Djokovic, who is seeking his first French Open title, defeated Nadal in Sunday’s final of the Monte Carlo Masters.
I recently debated the issue of Nadal’s French Open seeding with Ben Rothenberg of The New York Times. My take: The French tennis federation should not alter its system to boost Nadal’s ranking.

 

Online Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #52 on: April 24, 2013, 10:05:43 PM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

At RG?  :confused1: For Venus?  :confused1:

That happens at Wimbledon as women don't have that seeding formula. They are seeded based on WTA ranking, and seeding committee may make some changes.
August, read Lit's post. both Venus and Serena were bumped that year at RG. as I said, I forget things, it was almost 10 years ago  :)

Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #53 on: April 25, 2013, 12:48:00 AM »
I think it would easily make sense to change the seedings, but the problem is that RG has never ever done it before. For example, in the 90s, Sampras was always the 1 seed even though he was sub par on clay.
it never happened with men, but they did it with women. I can't remember, I think it was Venus Williams that got higher seed than her ranking at that time.

Both sisters got elevated in 2004, ranking 6 and 8 (among participants) they were given 2nd and 4th seed, for some reason. Both lost in the QF, corresponding to their rankings, not their seeds, and after that seedings have followed world ranking.

Quite surprising, neither of them being exceptionally great on clay. Do you, or anybody else, remember whether they had had injuries, explaining the higher seeds?

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Offline Litotes

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #54 on: April 25, 2013, 01:23:02 AM »
John McEnroe says Rafael Nadal should be No. 1 seed at French Open



I think McEnroe want to get his name in the press. If he wanted to make seedings more fair, he could have suggested seed #2. There is no difference between #1 and #2 in the draw.

If he wants to give #1 seed to the biggest favourite then I can imagine the debates this will cause in the future.

Offline britbox

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #55 on: April 25, 2013, 10:34:59 AM »
At this stage, Djokovic will go into Roland Garros as favourite.  I rather fancied him taking out Nadal in 2011, but Federer played a superb semi. As great as Nadal has been on the dirt (the best of all time IMO), Djokovic is asking questions he can't answer.

Offline Emma

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #56 on: April 25, 2013, 10:59:50 AM »
I don't think there's a clear heavy favourite this year's RG. Nadal looks somewhat vulnerable. Nole can win Masters but RG is a bigger deal for him but still, he should be running side by side along with Nadal as the main contenders. A couple of others will fly under the radar. Draws will be crucial to each one of them. I am sure the Organizers will be very keen on a Nadal/Nole final. Expect the draws to pan out that way.
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Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #57 on: April 25, 2013, 02:28:24 PM »
At this stage, Djokovic will go into Roland Garros as favourite.  I rather fancied him taking out Nadal in 2011, but Federer played a superb semi. As great as Nadal has been on the dirt (the best of all time IMO), Djokovic is asking questions he can't answer.

That's what people said in 2011, but Nadal losing at Monte Carlo is a different story than losing at RG.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Online Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #58 on: April 25, 2013, 02:39:30 PM »
I don't think there's a clear heavy favourite this year's RG. Nadal looks somewhat vulnerable. Nole can win Masters but RG is a bigger deal for him but still, he should be running side by side along with Nadal as the main contenders. A couple of others will fly under the radar. Draws will be crucial to each one of them. I am sure the Organizers will be very keen on a Nadal/Nole final. Expect the draws to pan out that way.

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Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #59 on: April 25, 2013, 06:06:24 PM »
I don't think there's a clear heavy favourite this year's RG. Nadal looks somewhat vulnerable. Nole can win Masters but RG is a bigger deal for him but still, he should be running side by side along with Nadal as the main contenders. A couple of others will fly under the radar. Draws will be crucial to each one of them. I am sure the Organizers will be very keen on a Nadal/Nole final. Expect the draws to pan out that way.



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