According to "Uncle Toni"....Roger is not even in the running for the French Open, and Murray has a better chance than he does (even though Murray hasn't even made a final)...But that's according to "Uncle Toni"
For me... It depends on the seeding. If they don't seed Nadal in the top 4...that would be a BIG mistake to me, and an injustice to the other top players because then one of them would have to meet him before the SF. Nadal has only lost ONE match in his history at the French so even though he lost on clay to Novak, I think he (Nadal) is still the favorite. I just hope somehow he is in the top 4 to be seeded. There is no way Murray or Ferrer or Roger should be seeded higher than Nadal. Novak is the only one who I can justify should be seeded higher than Nadal, but he's the only one. I hope the French Open does like Wimbledon and made a diplomatic change in how they seed players. But to me the favorite 3 are still: Nadal, Novak, and Federer. (Murray has to show me a little more on clay first).
Sampras was seeded #1 in RG five times. Roddick was seeded #2 twice. If they wanted realistic seedings, they should have done something many years ago to avoid such things.
If they want to change into a "Wimbledon-like" system with clay points counting double, then the least they could do was to give advance notice so everyone knows what the rules are well in advance. That might be the difference between playing the Golden swing and playing European indoor events.
So I feel Nadal should most definitely be seeded after the world ranking this year.
As for Nadal's chances of securing 4th, they depend upon victories both in Madrid and Rome, as well as Ferrer not doing to well.