Author Topic: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year  (Read 5023 times)

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Offline Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #80 on: May 02, 2013, 05:20:15 PM »
Draws are too hard to fix. Waaaaaay too many people there.
maybe, maybe not. there was a scientific research on this. Somehow, when Djokovic was ranked number 3 (Roger and Rafa being 1&2) he would always end up in the same half with Roger on HC, but in Rafa's half at RG. This woman who has PHD in statistics, said it was not statistically possible. too tired to find the article tho. there is also a video on you tube. So, I'm not so sure. Since Djokovic became #1, everything somehow changed.

Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #81 on: May 02, 2013, 05:28:29 PM »
I hate to sound cocky and question a PhD, but...well...that's what I'm going to do.

First of all, nothing is statistically impossible. That's kind of a principle theory of statistics.

Second of all, technically, it's like flipping a coin. Each time, there was a 50/50 shot of which half of the draw Nole would be on. I could flip a coin fifty times. It's just as likely that I would get some crazy random formation and that I'd get 50 heads in a row. Because each time you flip the coin, it's a 50/50 likelihood that you'll get heads or tails. The previous results don't come into the equation. It's the same way with the draw. The past results don't factor into the likelihood of each individual draw, therefore, by statistics, it's a 50/50 shot which draw he'd go into each time.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline Dallas

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #82 on: May 02, 2013, 05:30:54 PM »
I hate to sound cocky and question a PhD, but...well...that's what I'm going to do.

First of all, nothing is statistically impossible. That's kind of a principle theory of statistics.

Second of all, technically, it's like flipping a coin. Each time, there was a 50/50 shot of which half of the draw Nole would be on. I could flip a coin fifty times. It's just as likely that I would get some crazy random formation and that I'd get 50 heads in a row. Because each time you flip the coin, it's a 50/50 likelihood that you'll get heads or tails. The previous results don't come into the equation. It's the same way with the draw. The past results don't factor into the likelihood of each individual draw, therefore, by statistics, it's a 50/50 shot which draw he'd go into each time.

I agree!

Offline Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #83 on: May 02, 2013, 05:35:40 PM »
I hate to sound cocky and question a PhD, but...well...that's what I'm going to do.

First of all, nothing is statistically impossible. That's kind of a principle theory of statistics.

Second of all, technically, it's like flipping a coin. Each time, there was a 50/50 shot of which half of the draw Nole would be on. I could flip a coin fifty times. It's just as likely that I would get some crazy random formation and that I'd get 50 heads in a row. Because each time you flip the coin, it's a 50/50 likelihood that you'll get heads or tails. The previous results don't come into the equation. It's the same way with the draw. The past results don't factor into the likelihood of each individual draw, therefore, by statistics, it's a 50/50 shot which draw he'd go into each time.
Rafa816, I get your point but this woman had some pretty strong scientific data to prove her story. I'll try to post the link, although it doesn't really matter any more. I personally don't want to see Nole and Rafa in the same half at RG(we are talking about 2 best clay players at the moment), watching them playing the QF. but I also don't want to think that they do fix the draws, if you know what I mean. 

Offline HarryWild

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #84 on: May 03, 2013, 01:40:00 AM »
Nadal is favorite by the odds makers follow by Djokovic!

Offline Litotes

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #85 on: May 03, 2013, 02:14:18 AM »
Draws are too hard to fix. Waaaaaay too many people there.
maybe, maybe not. there was a scientific research on this. Somehow, when Djokovic was ranked number 3 (Roger and Rafa being 1&2) he would always end up in the same half with Roger on HC, but in Rafa's half at RG. This woman who has PHD in statistics, said it was not statistically possible. too tired to find the article tho. there is also a video on you tube. So, I'm not so sure. Since Djokovic became #1, everything somehow changed.

As Rafa816 correctly pointed out, nothing is statistically impossible. I could win the lottery every week this year, if I just remembered to by a ticket. It's not impossible, just really, really, really unlikely.

Your PHD woman has undoubtedly talked about confidence intervals. So she can say with xx,x% certainly that this was not dome randomly. It won't be 100% but it could conceivably be in the very high 99s.

Even though everything is possible statistically, sooner or later one feels justified in concluding something is off. If you play yatzy and your opponent throw five sixes ten times in a row I'm sure you'll want to take a closer look at - or exchange - the dice.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2013, 02:14:58 AM by Litotes »

Offline August

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #86 on: May 03, 2013, 10:55:33 AM »
Of course Nole landing in Fed's half in all slams except for RG between 2008 and 2011 isn't completely impossible, unly very unlikely.

But that's not the only suspicious thing. Imagine how often Isner-Mahut is nowadays an R1 or R2 matchup. And Fed-Benne, Murray-Baggy, and Sharapova-Lisicki were some of the most epic matches at Wimbledon last year. And those had their replays at Wimbledon at the Olympics.

I'm pretty sure draws are rigged.

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Online monstertruck

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2013, 06:39:27 PM »
PARIS (Reuters) - Rafael Nadal will not be protected with a higher seeding at the French Open, tournament director Gilbert Ysern said on Saturday.
 
Roland Garros committee member Guy Forget suggested last month that the Spaniard, who has slipped to fifth in the world rankings, should be protected to avoid a potential quarter-final clash with world number one Novak Djokovic.
 
"Considering what Nadal represents in Paris, i.e. the best player in the tournament's history, it seemed incongruous that he arrives in Paris with the number 4 or 5 bib," Ysern told French sports daily L'Equipe, adding that he backed off because the move would not have been welcomed.
 
"But it was said to be fiddling," he said.
 
"What was supposed to be a strong symbol, a tribute, was seen as messy business."
 
Nadal, who missed seven months of tennis because of a knee injury, trails world number four David Ferrer in the ATP rankings and has little chance of closing the points gap before the French Open begins on May 26.
CONK da ball!!!

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2013, 08:04:54 PM »
who is going to "protect" the 7 doomed men from nadal?
 
 
 :)) :))

Offline Rafa816

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #89 on: May 06, 2013, 02:23:27 AM »
I don't think they get it. It's not that they would be protecting Nadal. It's that they'd be protecting the potential QF opponent Nadal would get put against.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Online monstertruck

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #90 on: May 06, 2013, 05:48:54 AM »
Sounds about right to me Raf816.
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Offline jesse james

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #91 on: May 06, 2013, 10:19:24 AM »
Draws are too hard to fix. Waaaaaay too many people there.
maybe, maybe not. there was a scientific research on this. Somehow, when Djokovic was ranked number 3 (Roger and Rafa being 1&2) he would always end up in the same half with Roger on HC, but in Rafa's half at RG. This woman who has PHD in statistics, said it was not statistically possible. too tired to find the article tho. there is also a video on you tube. So, I'm not so sure. Since Djokovic became #1, everything somehow changed.

As Rafa816 correctly pointed out, nothing is statistically impossible. I could win the lottery every week this year, if I just remembered to by a ticket. It's not impossible, just really, really, really unlikely.

Your PHD woman has undoubtedly talked about confidence intervals. So she can say with xx,x% certainly that this was not dome randomly. It won't be 100% but it could conceivably be in the very high 99s.

Even though everything is possible statistically, sooner or later one feels justified in concluding something is off. If you play yatzy and your opponent throw five sixes ten times in a row I'm sure you'll want to take a closer look at - or exchange - the dice.

absolutely right, in fact chance is 'probably' a bad way to determine draws, assuming you believe in having what might be thought of as an even handed draw,  for exactly the reasons you've outlined.
Of course the alternative is to have faith in those making a determination as to what is an equitable draw. I imagine that system would draw more controversy than a failure to recognize the Gamblers fallacy.
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Offline Dallas

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #92 on: May 06, 2013, 11:27:14 AM »
I don't think they get it. It's not that they would be protecting Nadal. It's that they'd be protecting the potential QF opponent Nadal would get put against.

Like Roger said... it doesn't matter where Nadal is 'seeded'.  HE (Nadal) will be the favorite in any case.  It just happens to HURT the section Nadal will be place in -- not hurt Nadal, but hurt the other players! :rofl_2:  I can guarantee you that all the top players will be glued to the draw and will be praying that Nadal is NOT placed in their section.  With Roger's luck....he'll be placed there. :bang-head: :bang-head: :bang-head:

Offline Litotes

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #93 on: May 06, 2013, 12:39:25 PM »
I don't think they get it. It's not that they would be protecting Nadal. It's that they'd be protecting the potential QF opponent Nadal would get put against.

Like Roger said... it doesn't matter where Nadal is 'seeded'.  HE (Nadal) will be the favorite in any case.  It just happens to HURT the section Nadal will be place in -- not hurt Nadal, but hurt the other players! :rofl_2: I can guarantee you that all the top players will be glued to the draw and will be praying that Nadal is NOT placed in their section.  With Roger's luck....he'll be placed there. :bang-head: :bang-head: :bang-head:

Indeed. After last Wimbledon, there has basically been three relevant players all the time. To get a good draw on HC (except IW with Nadal back) Fed needed Murray and Djokovic on the same side. For clay, Murray is less important, there he needs Djokovic and Nadal on the same side. How many times has he got that in important tournaments? Once, in Cincinnatti. In USO, it was Djokovic who got the break. Shanghai, again Djokovic. AO, again Djokovic. MC, again Djokovic. Madrid, again Djokovic.....I sure wouldn't mind Fed getting a break in Rome and RG. But I don't expect it.

Offline Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #94 on: May 06, 2013, 01:34:00 PM »
hm, if Nole and Rafa DO NOT end up in the opposite half of the draw at RG, I'll ask Dallas to lend me her red high hill shoes ... I'll be walking naked in her red shoes in DT Calgary, saying HI to everyone  and smiling :gleam:

Offline Swish

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #95 on: May 06, 2013, 01:50:09 PM »
hm, if Nole and Rafa DO NOT end up in the opposite half of the draw at RG, I'll ask Dallas to lend me her red high hill shoes ... I'll be walking naked in her red shoes in DT Calgary, saying HI to everyone  and smiling :gleam:

You'll be popular in jail too.  Send a postcard.  :rofl_2:

Offline Alex

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #96 on: May 06, 2013, 01:55:42 PM »
hm, if Nole and Rafa DO NOT end up in the opposite half of the draw at RG, I'll ask Dallas to lend me her red high hill shoes ... I'll be walking naked in her red shoes in DT Calgary, saying HI to everyone  and smiling :gleam:

You'll be popular in jail too.  Send a postcard.  :rofl_2:
oops, I forgot about that part  :rofl_2:

Offline Dallas

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #97 on: May 06, 2013, 04:50:48 PM »
hm, if Nole and Rafa DO NOT end up in the opposite half of the draw at RG, I'll ask Dallas to lend me her red high hill shoes ... I'll be walking naked in her red shoes in DT Calgary, saying HI to everyone  and smiling :gleam:

Let me keep this quote for future reference :innocent:

Offline Clay Death

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #98 on: May 06, 2013, 05:30:55 PM »
 :)) :)) :)) :rofl_2: :rofl_2:

Offline Start da Game

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Re: who is the heavy favorite for RG this year
« Reply #99 on: May 07, 2013, 12:02:47 PM »
hercules, a better thread would have been "who is the heavy favourite for madrid and rome".......as you know the territory of roland garros is owned by nadal and we his fans are shareholders in it.......
Marian Vajda to Novak Djokovic, "I saw you beat that man like I never saw no man get beat before, and the man KEPT COMING AFTER YOU! Now we don't need no man like that in our lives."

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