Poll

Who will win Mens French Open?

Nadal
8 (38.1%)
Djokovic
5 (23.8%)
Federer
4 (19%)
Berlocq
2 (9.5%)
Other
2 (9.5%)

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Voting closed: June 09, 2013, 01:59:44 PM

Author Topic: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2  (Read 20057 times)

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Offline nick the greek

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #180 on: May 28, 2013, 01:08:49 AM »
No, of course not. Definitely never a reason to be arrogant. But when you're Roger Federer and you only seem that way once in a while, but usually are very praising to your opponents and never blame losses on anything and stuff like that, it comes off differently. It seems more like just a healthy dose of confidence rather than arrogance.

Well Federer did yell at Murray at the AO (you f**king stopped!) semi. Though Murray laughed it off later but he did go on to lose the set in the TB from a winning position in the previous game when he was serving for the match. You can't say he wasn't distracted even slightly so. That was nasty simply put.

Anyway, it doesn't matter. The point is, I don't care who he is or what he's achieved - I am going to see him under the same radar as I do with all the other players. He's no special to me. And his behaviour should not be excused just because he's some Roger Federer.

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Offline masterclass

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #181 on: May 28, 2013, 04:17:19 AM »
Unfortunately, Mr. Murray is a relative non-factor on clay.  Always has been at ATP tour level, probably always will be. :dunno:

Grass is another story.  Hopefully he is in good shape when Wimbledon starts. I don't want to see him bounced out early :)

Respectfully,
masterclass
I can agree with this. However, Murray has all qualities to be a great clay player. IMHO, his biggest problem is his movement on clay. too tired to explain it, but he is not  sliding on clay,  he is sort of trying to run on clay as if it was HC ... I hope someone understands what I'm talking about ... again his inability to move properly on clay is his biggest problem.

Yes Alex, I agree with you and many other experts about Mr. Murray's movement on clay being the basic problem and it does have to do with sliding.
I think Brad Gilbert once termed it the "California slide", basically illustrating how Murray was sliding after he was hitting the ball, thus getting out of position as opposed to sliding into the ball as all good clay court movers do.

Another problem is that, as with most players, clay tends to diminish his strength of service, which for him is not good, as it is one of his primary weapons. 

The key word in my original statement is "relative" (non-factor). To explain further, "relative" applies to multiple factors, of which I'll list 4 factors.

1. Relative to his own overall record on the various surfaces, his clay tournament finals result record is by far the poorest. 
I won't go into every detail, but hopefully this should be sufficient to demonstrate his proficiency or lack thereof relative to the other surfaces:

Code: [Select]
            W      F     
 hard:     22     13
grass:      3      1
 clay:      0      0

He also won 1 tourney on the now defunct carpet.
He has 4 semifinal and 6 QF results on clay out of 28 major (1 SF, 2 QF) and masters 1000 (3 SF, 4 QF) tournaments played,
which is approximately equal to his early round exits on clay (9 in the 1st or 2nd round).

2. Relative to his competition on various surfaces, both historically and currently, his overall record on clay is relatively poor.
Using the ATP career reliability index (based on match win pct),  he is historically ranked 8th on grass (.813), 10th on hard (.783), and 99th on clay (.602). 
There are 16 active players ranked ahead of him on clay.

3. Relative to his competition, he doesn't move as well on clay vs. the other surfaces. In my judgement, his movement and footwork is best on hard, then grass, then clay. 

4. Mental - relative lack of clay aura. Other players see him as more beatable on clay, and he probably sees himself as more beatable.  Confidence is a big factor at this level.

Of course, these factors are interrelated. Relative lack of good movement/footwork on clay affects results, which affect a player's mentality and aura.

There has been some improvement on clay since he began playing, some crediting various coaches helping him, but it is not consistent.  He appears to improve, then he backslides. 

I think his better results on clay have come from his basic improvement in all areas of his game over time.  In my judgement, I think it will be difficult for him to improve his movement/footwork/sliding on clay at this point in his career, which will always handicap his results versus his current competition.  He might get better results if his competition falls off the radar scope.  I wish all the best for him; he seems like a good hard working guy.

This is how I see it, relatively speaking... ;)

Respectfully,
masterclass
« Last Edit: May 28, 2013, 07:13:57 AM by masterclass »
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Online monstertruck

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #182 on: May 28, 2013, 05:31:16 AM »
It's cool to see so many actual discussions about tennis here. Big props to Emma, Rafa816, masterclass, swish and everyone else. Or maybe it's just cuz CD and Shank aren't here  :whistle:  :rofl_2:

Re: potential Berdych vs. Federer: I do think Berdych was the biggest threat to Federer but surprisingly they have only played on clay 3 times of their 17 meetings, all won by Federer, the most recent one and only one worth considering being in 2012 on the blue clay in Madrid where Federer won 7-5 in the third. The other two were in 2005,2006. So we don't have much to go on, but I would think the clay would neutralize Berdych's biggest weapons against Federer and give Federer a better chance to exploit Berdych's movement. I think Federer would have come out safe in 4 sets, much like Nadal did against an aggressive power-hitting Brands in the first round. Then again, Federer's only upset loss at RG in the past couple years was to Soderling, who's similar to Berdych in many regards. Regardless, yes, Berdych on paper is the biggest threat to Federer. But Tsonga has given Federer just as much of a fight in the past and has had some good matches on clay in the past.

Also Emma, it is interesting to see that Berdych does seem to get better later on in Slams. He's had 10 first round exits in his career which seems like a high number for a top player (have not compared) but yeah, he does seem vulnerable in the early stages.


Re: Murray on clay. It's surprising that he hasn't done more (won any clay titles) because he has had good runs in the past and has given Nadal tough matches and made it far. Even if you want to call him the "worst" top player on clay, he'd almost certainly have made his seeding, and the only people who could really take him in a best of 5 set clay (half of which he could win on fitness alone) apart from the top 4 are Ferrer, Berdych, Delpot, Tsonga and maybe someone like Stan or a young guy on fire that day. So yeah, calling him a nonfactor is kinda going far.


Re: confidence and arrogance. One thing to lay down here is that nothing any of the players are saying today would come close to being "arrogant" if it was said in the early 80s. The things that were said back makes today's arrogance seem nice. That said, every top player needs a healthy dose of confidence, bordering on overconfidence to truly assert themselves. This applies to Federer who has a million slams, Berdych who sees himself as an ever-dangerous threat and a top 10 contender, Gulbis who thinks he's more capable of winning than his ranking shows, and honestly, to anyone who plays professional sport with the aim to go all the way. Sure some people can manage it better and keep a humble profile in front of the media but you can see the ego/pride in any good player's eyes when he's receiving serve down matchpoints and right after that point.
I wouldn't call any player arrogant, just inexperienced in public relations, or honest to the point of not giving a crap what anyone else says. Federer calling Djokovic's Shot down matchpoint at the USO "lucky" definitely came off as arrogant but there was just as much truth and justification in it as Berdych naming his own forehand as one of the best, or Gulbis saying he's more talented than his ranking shows. It's what they believe in and have at least at times proven to the world. I think they are allowed to be arrogant to a certain extent as long as they can back it up - and they need to be borderline arrogant to stay strong and believe in their capacity, their RIGHT to win, that's the only way someone like Berdych or Gulbis can take down someone like Federer or Nadal. I am sure there's a lot of sport psychology around this but convincing yourself that you are worthy of beating a top player or winning a grand slam or being a certain ranking because you own a fearsome forehand or serve or whatever is MORE than half the battle - the other half being hitting the practice courts, but hitting the practice courts is often times the easier part, that's what they all do, it's their job. Novak was arrogant when he was young, Murray was not the most modest when he showed off his biceps after beating Gasquet in 5 at Wimbledon (promptly losing to Nadal in the next round), but that was all necessary and requisite in the making of the champion. Now they can afford to be humble and say "Yeah I'm looking forward to a good match against the qualifier in the next round", but in reality, they better be thinking "I'm a champion and a top 5 player BECAUSE of the blood sweat and tears I have put in and I am going to OWN this guy in the next round because I deserve to and it's the only reasonable outcome".

Long post but yeah. Confidence and borderline arrogance can help young players and it shows the fire is alive in players who have already "made it". Might not be sexy at times. Or is it.

I think Roddick (I miss this guy), had a healthy dose of confidence and entitlement without necessarily coming across as arrogant to the media. He's taken his shots at top players (Nadal, Djokovic) and when he played you could see the determination and entitlement show through, and that was what added to his somewhat intimidating aggressive aura even if his game wasn't always like that. Of course the serve helped.
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Offline Lugburz

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #183 on: May 28, 2013, 07:01:49 AM »
Hasi time.  :innocent: See ya'all later....
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Offline Dallas

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2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #184 on: May 28, 2013, 08:38:37 AM »
Master class... Great explanation.
Emma, I'm sure Murray's fans do miss him.

So now that we have that straightened out....back to the matches.

Rain........

I hope they will be able to finish play today. If only they had a roof .....if only they had lights....  Oh well.


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Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #185 on: May 28, 2013, 09:08:22 AM »
The lack of lights is what annoys me. They are now the only slam without lights on at least one court...

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Online Alex

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #186 on: May 28, 2013, 09:13:58 AM »
Masterclass that's exactly what I was getting to regarding Murray and his movement on clay etc. Great analysis  :thumbs-up:.

Bloody rain. Nole might even not play today at all. When is play expected to resume? Anybody?

Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #187 on: May 28, 2013, 09:15:06 AM »
No idea. When the first delay ended, they said the worst was behind them, but they seem to have been wrong.

Great to see Sock doing so well, though. Demolished GGL in the first two sets, and now up a break in the third!

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #188 on: May 28, 2013, 09:38:44 AM »
Rain delay over! :D

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline pawan89

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #189 on: May 28, 2013, 10:01:00 AM »
No idea. When the first delay ended, they said the worst was behind them, but they seem to have been wrong.

Great to see Sock doing so well, though. Demolished GGL in the first two sets, and now up a break in the third!

This is pretty shocking, in my opinion. Sock hasn't exactly been headlining the ATP tour and GGL has been around for a while with good results on clay. If he can get this done in straight sets I am fairly impressed. Wish I could be watching this.


Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #190 on: May 28, 2013, 10:21:48 AM »
Yeah, apparently this is his first ATP-level match outside of the states. He won in straight, 2, 2, and 5.

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Offline pawan89

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #191 on: May 28, 2013, 10:53:50 AM »
Yeah, apparently this is his first ATP-level match outside of the states. He won in straight, 2, 2, and 5.

Did not know that, pretty impressive!! He'll play Tommy Haas next. Sounds like the end of his Paris tournament unless he can stir up some magic. I got to see him up-close at the USOpen on grandstand, sitting as close to the court as possible, could almost touch him if I reached out, and loved watching him play. He beat Floryian Mayer (I think Mayer retired after a set or two) and it was pretty awesome.


Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #192 on: May 28, 2013, 11:08:59 AM »
That is quite a tough ask, Haas. But, NO OFFENSE TO THE MANY HAAS FANS ON THIS BOARD, besides maybe Cilic or Tipsy, of the higher seeds (12 and up), Haas would probably be the easiest to beat simply because his age makes him a little vulnerable. And, recently, he's been a little inconsistent.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline Emma

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #193 on: May 28, 2013, 11:18:46 AM »

Oh, I'm not either. Well, not of Federer :P Fed is one of my least favorite players. I'm just saying that when he says something that might come across as arrogant, his play backs it up, so it's not as much arrogant as confident. For example, in one interview, people asked various players who they thought had the best forehand in the game. Berdych said himself, which is just ludicrous when there are people like Fed, Del Po, and Rafa in the game. Federer said Rafa. But had Federer said himself, it wouldn't necessarily be the same as Berdych, because a lot of people would credit Fed with the best FH in the game. Know what I mean?

Yeah, I did hear about that incident, though I'm not really sure what Fed meant or what the circumstances were around it. But I agree. That kind of thing isn't needed on the court.

To be honest, I have no idea why that should offend anyone. But more importantly, if you watch the video again, you will see he smiled naughtily after he pointed out his own forehand. He was clearly said it in jest. And why not? It wasnít a serious video to begin with. Why read so much into something so benign?

And frankly, I can pick up some of Nadalís antics as well if I choose to dislike him regardless. I think thatís how some people go on about some players they donít like anyway.

Bottom line, young players who are still evolving, you can excuse their behaviour as itís a long journey with many ups and downs and thatís really the learning period they go through early on. Reason why I am never too keen on Tomicís antics. I believe in time heíll grow up too. But you canít excuse playersí behavior that are on tour for a while now and know better. And that was a very important match for Murray against Federer. You donít want to scream at your opponent in the middle of a match, especially when things are very, very crucial. I could have cited it as gamesmanship tactic since Federer was only 1 game away from losing the match. But I didnít because I thought Federer just got irritated as Andy stopped 2/3 times to check the line as he was out of line calls and Federer just couldnít hold it back. But Murray did everything within the rule and did not deserve that kind of behaviour from Federer.
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Offline Emma

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #194 on: May 28, 2013, 11:21:19 AM »
Long posts pawan and Masterclass but very good posts. I agree with some of your points but not all. I will give my counter arguments later as I've just come back to work after a 4 day rest and have too much to catch up with.
Looks like Dimitrov got lucky against Falla who retired after the 1st set.
 
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Offline Emma

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #195 on: May 28, 2013, 11:25:36 AM »
It's a cold cruel world out there.Sometimes people shout at you and sometimes feather falls from the sky. :)) :)) :))

Well, the feather part was a divine intervention. It was in disguise but a message from the source. In time we'll see.
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Offline Emma

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #196 on: May 28, 2013, 11:27:33 AM »
No idea. When the first delay ended, they said the worst was behind them, but they seem to have been wrong.

Great to see Sock doing so well, though. Demolished GGL in the first two sets, and now up a break in the third!

This is pretty shocking, in my opinion. Sock hasn't exactly been headlining the ATP tour and GGL has been around for a while with good results on clay. If he can get this done in straight sets I am fairly impressed. Wish I could be watching this.

I know because you wrote him off just yesterday. And he's won in straight sets too. Perhaps a lesson for you.  :)~
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Offline Rafa816

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #197 on: May 28, 2013, 11:40:14 AM »
I would normally say yes, it was in jest. But I've never heard of Berdych as being much of a joker, and the interviewer reacted a little awkwardly and he still just sat there grinning. And, based off of other interviews I've seen from him and his overall attitude on the court towards other players, he seems very arrogant and so I wouldn't put it past him to actually believe it. I'm not saying I'm offended by him doing that. I'm just saying it's ludicrous if he actually believes it.

Yes, there are certain aspects of Nadal that annoy people. I'm fine with that. Plenty of people dislike Nadal. It's within their right. I personally am not bothered by any of the things he does that bother other people. One of the most annoying attributes I dislike in sportsmen is arrogance, so that's why there are certain players on the tour that I greatly dislike due to their arrogance. And one of the reasons why I like Nadal. He's probably the most humble sportsmen I've ever seen.

I don't excuse people just because they're relatively new to the tour. I mean, it's common sense not to act all arrogant, especially when you're new to the tour and you're at the bottom of the totem pole. First of all, people are getting their first impressions of you. Second of all, obviously you're at the bottom, so don't act like you deserve to be on top until you prove it.

Rafa is the FIRST to qualify for WTF this year! :D

Offline pawan89

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #198 on: May 28, 2013, 11:56:07 AM »
No idea. When the first delay ended, they said the worst was behind them, but they seem to have been wrong.

Great to see Sock doing so well, though. Demolished GGL in the first two sets, and now up a break in the third!

This is pretty shocking, in my opinion. Sock hasn't exactly been headlining the ATP tour and GGL has been around for a while with good results on clay. If he can get this done in straight sets I am fairly impressed. Wish I could be watching this.

I know because you wrote him off just yesterday. And he's won in straight sets too. Perhaps a lesson for you.  :)~

Does this mean I am not the genius predicting machine that I thought I was?? I was banking on my ability to make the absolute perfect assumptions and decisions to carry me through life.. what am I going to do with my life now  :)~

Apparently this was his first ATP win not on US soil, I'm happy for him :)


Online monstertruck

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Re: 2013 ATP/WTA Grand Slam Roland Garros (May 21-June 9) Draw in post #2
« Reply #199 on: May 28, 2013, 11:59:54 AM »
I like Sock's game and think he has potential.
GGL has been around but that doesn't guarantee wins over lower ranked players.
You'd be better off leaving the astro predicting to the Shankman Professor. :rofl_2:
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