I think the reason stak had a day of his life the other day is because roger allowed him to have such a day.
1. he returned poorly
2. he did not take care of his serve
3. his shots off the ground lack the usual mustard
you cant lose your serve on grass 6 times and expect to win no matter who the hell you are anyway.
General, what is this with losing serve six times? Stak broke Fed exactly twice, once late in the 3rd and once early in the 4th. Fed only broke once, to get back on serve in the 4th.
Apart from that I agree with your analysis. Breaking Stak only once, and losing two of three TBs, was caused by poor returning. He made Stak look like a better server than he deserves to.
So where is Fed's form now? Difficult to tell. You will notice that the two men he beat to get the title in Halle, Haas and Youzhny, are still in the draw. Unfortunately for them, they now meet Djokovic and Murray respectively....