Author Topic: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System  (Read 1126 times)

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Offline uchickenvn

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Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« on: December 11, 2013, 01:12:39 PM »
Hi Everybody,

It's too cold outside & no tennis to watch until the end of the year so I did a small fun project to calculate all ATP players based on Elo Ranking System. Players' points are calculated based on all match results of Grand Slams back from 2010 and Master 1000s in 2013:
 
Initial point: 10,000
K factor:
    24 x 4 (Grand Slams)
    24 x 3 (Barclay Finals)
    24 X 2 (Master 1000s)
    24 x 1 (500)
    24 x 0.5 (250)

(UPDATED)
After many late night, here's what I got:

(*this ranking include the latest Qatar, Brisbane & Auckland 2014 results)

1    Novak Djokovic    10,924    136 / 17    
2    Rafael Nadal    10,918    123 / 11    
3    Andy Murray    10,696    93 / 19    
4    Stanislas Wawrinka    10,577    58 / 25    
5    Roger Federer    10,539    95 / 23    
6    Tomas Berdych    10,453    71 / 28    
7    Juan Martin Del Potro    10,432    54 / 22    
8    David Ferrer    10,429    81 / 28    
9    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga    10,416    64 / 21    
10    Tommy Robredo    10,344    21 / 15    
11    Mikhail Youzhny    10,341    43 / 25    
12    Richard Gasquet    10,339    54 / 28    
13    Robin Soderling    10,320    23 / 7    
14    Milos Raonic    10,302    37 / 20    
15    Mardy Fish    10,290    24 / 13    
16    Tommy Haas    10,290    29 / 20    
17    Andy Roddick    10,275    25 / 11    
18    Lleyton Hewitt    10,266    26 / 17    
19    Philipp Kohlschreiber    10,254    36 / 26    
20    Marin Cilic    10,250    39 / 20    


Djokovic and Nadal are only 7 points different at the top and a distance away from number 3, Murray. Ferrer moved up to number 7.


Full Rankings and match results can be found here:

Tennis Ladder

ATP / WTA Tennis Tournaments

Please let me know what you guys think.  :whistle:

Thanks,
« Last Edit: January 09, 2014, 11:28:51 PM by uchickenvn »

Offline Tennis4you

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2013, 04:43:54 PM »
That's kind of interesting.  Interesting to see how people do in just those tournaments.  The Barclay finals are a tough one in there because only 8 people got to play.
Good Luck on the Court!!!
Scott Baker
http://www.tennis4you.com

Offline Swish

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2013, 05:04:54 PM »
Interesting result in this kind of ranking system.  :cool:
 
 

Offline uchickenvn

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2013, 05:23:54 PM »
That's kind of interesting.  Interesting to see how people do in just those tournaments.  The Barclay finals are a tough one in there because only 8 people got to play.


Ya, I should not put the David Cup in there but the results has already been input and it's not easy to reverse. Anyway, it doesn't really make much of the impact.

For those who are not familiar with the Elo rating system:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

In short, it's considered the most accurate system to rate players ability based on their match results. It's doesn't base solely on the number of wins or looses but the opponents' strength too. If you beat a stronger player, you get more points and vice versa.

Online Babblelot

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2013, 09:47:38 AM »
Until 2006, the WTA used to award bonus points for beating top players. Here's an interesting article that re-ranks the women according to the old system.

Quote
Serena Williams in 2012 won two Slams and the year-end Championships. She also regularly beat Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the players ranked ahead of her. And yet — she wasn't No. 1.

Why?

Until 2006, there were points for beating top players as well as for reaching particular rounds. For instance, reaching the quarterfinal of an event by beating No. 1 and No. 8 was worth 143 points — 125 more points than you would get for beating No. 50 and No. 75.

These "quality points" were substantial — typically about a third of a player's total. And a larger margin of quality points was usually a good sign that a player had the potential to move up, while having less suggested a player was on the slide.

NEW RANK   (WTA RANK)   PLAYER   QUALITY PTS.
1   (3)   S.Williams,   159.5
2   (2)   Sharapova   126.5
3   (1)   Azarenka   118.3

On the other hand, several players are revealing hidden weakness. Agnieszka Radwanska and Sara Errani come out lower than their rankings, showing that they've been relying on consistency more than knocking out the biggest names. Samantha Stosur and Marion Bartoli have dropped back this season, and the quality points show they're wilting against the top players.... But two of this season's biggest upward movers, Kerber and Vinci, show their progress has been on solid ground.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2012/12/03/wta-rankings-serena-williams/1742597/



Some know I'm not a fan of the 12 month ranking system because I don't care if someone was tearing it up last July when they can't win matches this year. Not a fan of ranking a dute top 15 for 6 months, then dropping him to top 50 overnight. That's why I only watch the Race Rankings and care about YE #1.

Anyway, here's an idea that I wish I would have thought of. It's a nice compromise.  :)

Quote
Last week is worth more than last year.
In my system, last week is worth a little bit more than the week before, which is worth a little bit more than the week before that, and so on.  Here’s a simple way to incorporate that into the ATP system: After four months, tournaments are worth only 80% of their original points.  After eight months, tournaments are worth only 60% of their original points.  That way, the drop off is more gradual, and Indian Wells is worth more than, say, the 2011 Rome Masters.  If Nadal still wants two years, this can easily be extended to cover two years of results–after a year, 45%; after 16 months, 30%, after 20 months, 15%.  Now everybody’s happy!


http://heavytopspin.com/2012/03/30/three-simple-ways-to-improve-the-atp-ranking-system/


« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 10:12:09 AM by Babblelot »
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Offline uchickenvn

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2013, 02:12:54 AM »
After many late night, here's what I got after adding all 2013 Master 1000s results:

1 Novak Djokovic 10,919 59 / 9
2 Rafael Nadal 10,760 53 / 5
3 Stanislas Wawrinka 10,513 30 / 13
4 Roger Federer 10,497 29 / 12
5 Andy Murray 10,431 32 / 7
6 Juan Martin Del Potro 10,373 25 / 13
7 Tomas Berdych 10,361 34 / 16
8 David Ferrer 10,304 32 / 15
9 Tommy Robredo 10,290 14 / 8
10 Gael Monfils 10,278 8 / 5
11 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 10,272 23 / 10
12 Milos Raonic 10,260 23 / 12
13 John Isner 10,257 14 / 11
14 Richard Gasquet 10,257 27 / 16
15 Philipp Kohlschreiber 10,225 15 / 12
16 Kei Nishikori 10,216 21 / 12
17 Florian Mayer 10,213 11 / 11
18 Marcel Granollers 10,204 11 / 13
19 Tommy Haas 10,193 22 / 11
20 Feliciano Lopez 10,177 11 / 11

Detail ranking, match results + bonus highlights can be found here:
http://opentennisworld.com

Please let me know what you guys think. :)

Thanks,

Offline Swish

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2013, 08:56:11 PM »
I like this system somewhat but not really into the details as yet.
 
It would be time consuming to convert and the data would have to be solid which is a problem if going back too many years.
 
I guess an algorithm could be developed but for that the motivation would have to be high, a long process I assume.
 
 

Offline uchickenvn

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2014, 11:23:13 PM »
Ok, I had to admit that there was a bug in our algorithm which made the rankings inaccurate. We fixed it, reduce the K-factor a bit to be more conservative and here's our new rankings:
(*this ranking include the latest Qatar, Brisbane & Auckland 2014 results, all Grand Slams from 2010 and 2013 Master 1000s)

1    Novak Djokovic    10,924    136 / 17    
2    Rafael Nadal    10,918    123 / 11    
3    Andy Murray    10,696    93 / 19    
4    Stanislas Wawrinka    10,577    58 / 25    
5    Roger Federer    10,539    95 / 23    
6    Tomas Berdych    10,453    71 / 28    
7    Juan Martin Del Potro    10,432    54 / 22    
8    David Ferrer    10,429    81 / 28    
9    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga    10,416    64 / 21    
10    Tommy Robredo    10,344    21 / 15    
11    Mikhail Youzhny    10,341    43 / 25    
12    Richard Gasquet    10,339    54 / 28    
13    Robin Soderling    10,320    23 / 7    
14    Milos Raonic    10,302    37 / 20    
15    Mardy Fish    10,290    24 / 13    
16    Tommy Haas    10,290    29 / 20    
17    Andy Roddick    10,275    25 / 11    
18    Lleyton Hewitt    10,266    26 / 17    
19    Philipp Kohlschreiber    10,254    36 / 26    
20    Marin Cilic    10,250    39 / 20    


Djokovic and Nadal are only 7 points different at the top and a distance away from number 3, Murray. Ferrer moved up to number 7.

This rankings based on the match results of all Grand Slams from 2010 till now and Master 1000s in 2013 which can be found here:

Full Rankings and match results:

ATP / WTA ranked by Elo

ATP / WTA Tennis Tournaments

Please let us know what you think.  :)

Thanks,
« Last Edit: January 09, 2014, 11:35:45 PM by uchickenvn »

Offline Swish

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Re: Rank ATP players by Elo Rating System
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2014, 07:56:35 PM »
I like the system but don't have a "feel" with the numbers. I guess it takes awhile to get used to it.