Topic: Clay Monster's Limitations

[yellowball]

This is the first match I've seen Tsonga play... he's good and will certainly get better. He's WAY strong! It's a pretty good match.

Rafa seems to be moving well but his attitude seems a bit flat, don't know what that might be about unless he's in a little pain. Dunno. I'd never seen Rafa hit one back right at the opponent before...  but he obviously intended to take a direct hit at Tsonga (twice?).

Rafa's my boy, I'm holding my breath. Every match, every round, it ain't over 'til it's over!

 

you can start breathing now. he is 49-0 in slams when he wins the first set. i still dont like his chances here. not even if he was 100%. he does not have the goods:

1. he needs a better serve
2. even more importantly, he needs a bigger return of serve

Yeah, he needs all that, but he's been doing pretty well so far without it!  He's workin' on it.  Considering he's supposed to be no good at all on hard court, and his knees are screwed up and he can't serve or return. He's doing pretty well.

     

Go Rafa, Go Rafa  

[Clay Death]

This is the first match I've seen Tsonga play... he's good and will certainly get better. He's WAY strong! It's a pretty good match.

Rafa seems to be moving well but his attitude seems a bit flat, don't know what that might be about unless he's in a little pain. Dunno. I'd never seen Rafa hit one back right at the opponent before...  but he obviously intended to take a direct hit at Tsonga (twice?).

Rafa's my boy, I'm holding my breath. Every match, every round, it ain't over 'til it's over!

 

you can start breathing now. he is 49-0 in slams when he wins the first set. i still dont like his chances here. not even if he was 100%. he does not have the goods:

1. he needs a better serve
2. even more importantly, he needs a bigger return of serve

Yeah, he needs all that, but he's been doing pretty well so far without it!  He's workin' on it.  Considering he's supposed to be no good at all on hard court, and his knees are screwed up and he can't serve or return. He's doing pretty well.

     

Go Rafa, Go Rafa  

yep. thats the good news. next match is going to be lot tougher. ferru is playing great and he is hell of a lot more consistent than tsonga. so we get to see the clay monster for possibly 2 more matches before somebody knocks him out. good deal.

[Clay Death]

lets play a guessing game: i have been looking at the draw and from what i am able to tell or see, there is an outside chance that clay monster could be in the finals. wouldnt that be something if he actually made it to the finals.

here is the deal:

1. his next match is likely to go his way. ferru has been on the court for over 4 hours today and just may not recover fully. secondly, he doesnt really have the big weapons to hurt the clay monster. they could stay out there for a while but it will only hurt ferru and not nadal. we have to assume that his knees are doing a little better. ferru does have a great return of serve so nadal has to be careful and not give too many games away on his own serve. i think nadal wins this one.

2. his next match will be either against chela or wawrinka and both of these guys are coming back from 5 setters. nadal wont have any problems against chela but could encouter a little bit of difficulty against wawrinka but you have to give that match to nadal as well due to the experience on the big stage and mental toughness. so the clcay monster will win this match as well one way or the other.

3. this is where it gets tricky. nadal is not 100% right now so there is no way he can gun down djokovic in the semis. but there is a way: he has to catch the djoker a little bit spent or worn out and that could happen. fatigue is cumulative at a slam. you saw what happened to the djokovic at the french open and at wimby. if djoker has a long match against monaco and then plays moya who keeps him out there for a while, nadal has a chance against him in the semis.

what do you think?

[sofico]

lets play a guessing game: i have been looking at the draw and from what i am able to tell or see, there is an outside chance that clay monster could be in the finals. wouldnt that be something if he actually made it to the finals.

here is the deal:

1. his next match is likely to go his way. ferru has been on the court for over 4 hours today and just may not recover fully. secondly, he doesnt really have the big weapons to hurt the clay monster. they could stay out there for a while but it will only hurt ferru and not nadal. we have to assume that his knees are doing a little better. ferru does have a great return of serve so nadal has to be careful and not give too many games away on his own serve. i think nadal wins this one.

2. his next match will be either against chela or wawrinka and both of these guys are coming back from 5 setters. nadal wont have any problems against chela but could encouter a little bit of difficulty against wawrinka but you have to give that match to nadal as well due to the experience on the big stage and mental toughness. so the clcay monster will win this match as well one way or the other.

3. this is where it gets tricky. nadal is not 100% right now so there is no way he can gun down djokovic in the semis. but there is a way: he has to catch the djoker a little bit spent or worn out and that could happen. fatigue is cumulative at a slam. you saw what happened to the djokovic at the french open and at wimby. if djoker has a long match against monaco and then plays moya who keeps him out there for a while, nadal has a chance against him in the semis.

what do you think?

uhmmmm....I don't know! frankly I don't see Rafa beating Ferru right now. Even if that happens, I don't see him beating Wawrinka because this guy has been playing very well lately, and actually if I'm not wrong Rafa had a tough beating Wawrinka in Sttugart. If it turns out that Wawrinka is mentally weak as Tsoga, then Rafa has a chance. Even that I don't think Rafa has chances against the Djoker because he's getting more coffidence from every match ...
I have really analyzed what it weak about the Djoker....he has a good serve...but I don't know what his weaknesses are

[Clay Death]

lets play a guessing game: i have been looking at the draw and from what i am able to tell or see, there is an outside chance that clay monster could be in the finals. wouldnt that be something if he actually made it to the finals.

here is the deal:

1. his next match is likely to go his way. ferru has been on the court for over 4 hours today and just may not recover fully. secondly, he doesnt really have the big weapons to hurt the clay monster. they could stay out there for a while but it will only hurt ferru and not nadal. we have to assume that his knees are doing a little better. ferru does have a great return of serve so nadal has to be careful and not give too many games away on his own serve. i think nadal wins this one.

2. his next match will be either against chela or wawrinka and both of these guys are coming back from 5 setters. nadal wont have any problems against chela but could encouter a little bit of difficulty against wawrinka but you have to give that match to nadal as well due to the experience on the big stage and mental toughness. so the clcay monster will win this match as well one way or the other.

3. this is where it gets tricky. nadal is not 100% right now so there is no way he can gun down djokovic in the semis. but there is a way: he has to catch the djoker a little bit spent or worn out and that could happen. fatigue is cumulative at a slam. you saw what happened to the djokovic at the french open and at wimby. if djoker has a long match against monaco and then plays moya who keeps him out there for a while, nadal has a chance against him in the semis.

what do you think?

uhmmmm....I don't know! frankly I don't Rafa beating Ferru right now. Even if that happens, I don't see him beating Wawrinka because this guy has been playing very well lately, and actually if I'm not wrong Rafa had a tough beating Wawrinka in Sttugart. If it turns out that Wawrinka is mentally weak as Tsoga, then Rafa has a chance. Even that I don't think Rafa has chances against the Djoker because he's getting more coffidence from every match ...
I have really analyzed what it weak about the Djoker....he has a good serve...but I don't know what his weaknesses are

you are right. wawrinka did play the clay monster tough in stuttgart and is looking relatively sharp on hard courts. he is an attacking type of a player who plays close to the baseline and takes the ball early. that said, he may not be the one nadal has to face. it could easily by chela. both should be overwhelmed by the occasion and both should be relatively spent by the time they run into the clay monster.

the djoker deal is trickier. right now, he shows enough game to beat anybody. has massive finishing power off both wings and a huge serve. the only x-factor with him is that he has the tendency to get tired once deep into a slam. i am thinking that might happen. he spent nearly 5 hours in beating stepanek. he will next play monaco who is solid. monaco has 3 clay titles under his belt and also catches the ball early off both sides. either he or moya or both have to keep the djoker out there a few hours and nadal can pick him off in the semis.

but even then it wont be easy. clay monster will have to return better and serve better in order to have a chance. and we dont know how he will be feeling with his knees.

translation: it could happen. stay tuned.

[kittens25]

Ummm sorry to burst the bubble of the ultimate Nadal pesstimist/fanatic combined, but if Nadal makes the semis he has NO shot vs Djokovic.   Djokovic would probably beat him on a hard court even healthy, let alone injured.   Also Djokovic will not be tired for the semis.   Monaco will not give Djokovic a tough match.    I highly doubt Moya or Gulbis give him a tough match either, Moya beat him in Cinncinati but he was spent from Canada, if they play here it will be nothing like that.

[dmastous]

Ummm sorry to burst the bubble of the ultimate Nadal pesstimist/fanatic combined, but if Nadal makes the semis he has NO shot vs Djokovic.   Djokovic would probably beat him on a hard court even healthy, let alone injured.   Also Djokovic will not be tired for the semis.   Monaco will not give Djokovic a tough match.    I highly doubt Moya or Gulbis give him a tough match either, Moya beat him in Cinncinati but he was spent from Canada, if they play here it will be nothing like that.

Either spent, or just deciding to pack it in early and rest for the Open while still making his Masters Series commitment.

[Clay Death]

Ummm sorry to burst the bubble of the ultimate Nadal pesstimist/fanatic combined, but if Nadal makes the semis he has NO shot vs Djokovic.   Djokovic would probably beat him on a hard court even healthy, let alone injured.   Also Djokovic will not be tired for the semis.   Monaco will not give Djokovic a tough match.    I highly doubt Moya or Gulbis give him a tough match either, Moya beat him in Cinncinati but he was spent from Canada, if they play here it will be nothing like that.

he was spent from canada but cant be spent here. let me see. he was able to work on his fitness after moya destroyed him in cincy.

the dude has fitness issues once deep into a slam. we dont know for sure if he can take moya out to begin with. maybe they match up well. also del potro is no monaco so he will have to work a little in his next match.

translation: i think it happens. clay monster is not a monster for nothing.

[sofico]

Ummm sorry to burst the bubble of the ultimate Nadal pesstimist/fanatic combined, but if Nadal makes the semis he has NO shot vs Djokovic.   Djokovic would probably beat him on a hard court even healthy, let alone injured.   Also Djokovic will not be tired for the semis.   Monaco will not give Djokovic a tough match.    I highly doubt Moya or Gulbis give him a tough match either, Moya beat him in Cinncinati but he was spent from Canada, if they play here it will be nothing like that.

I KNOW THAT! DJOKER DOES NOT HAVE ANY WEAKNESSES RIGHT NOW, AND I DON'T EVEN THINK RAFA WILL MAKE IT TO THE SEMIS FRANKLY. IT'S NOT BEING PESSIMISTIC. IT'S BEING REALISTIC

[kittens25]

he was spent from canada but cant be spent here. let me see. he was able to work on his fitness after moya destroyed him in cincy.

the dude has fitness issues once deep into a slam. we dont know for sure if he can take moya out to begin with. maybe they match up well. also del potro is no monaco so he will have to work a little in his next match.

translation: i think it happens. clay monster is not a monster for nothing.

You are crazy.   First of all Del Potro is better then Monaco, Monica is just a third rate clay courter so alread you make no sense.   There is no fitness issues when you are not having a tough time, and Djokovic will not have a tough time making the semis.  

It is funny how in one instant you are pesstimistic Nadal fan ripping him apart, then the next you are a deluded Nadal fanatic looking for the most ridiculous straws to grasp onto.  I am going to exit this thread since reading a bit of your work is enough for me.    Keep dreaming of Nadal in the U.S Open final though.

[sofico]

translation: it could happen. stay tuned.

YEAH...IT COULD, BUT FOR THAT HE REALLY HAS TO BE 100% FIT AND BESIDES HE HAS TO IMPROVE HIS SERVICE AND VOLLEYS AND BACKHAND, AND.....,AND........(MANY THINGS) AND ALL THAT WON'T HAPPEN IN TWO DAYS.

I'LL TRY TO STAY TUNNED. EVEN IF I CAN'T WATCH THE MATCHES. I'LL READ THE NEWS OR WHATEVER...

[dmastous]

I'm so confused....

Nadal could win because he's the monster, but he could lose because he's injured.
Djokovic will win because he will be fitter because his road is easier, but he will lose because he has petered out in 2 grand slam quarters (not 1).
Moya is fit because he's got a fitness center in Mallorca, but he can't beat his buddy Nadal.


and, oh yeah, there's that other guy...... Federing, Federous, FEDERER, that's him Federer! Is he any good?

[Clay Death]

I'm so confused....

Nadal could win because he's the monster, but he could lose because he's injured.
Djokovic will win because he will be fitter because his road is easier, but he will lose because he has petered out in 2 grand slam quarters (not 1).
Moya is fit because he's got a fitness center in Mallorca, but he can't beat his buddy Nadal.


and, oh yeah, there's that other guy...... Federing, Federous, FEDERER, that's him Federer! Is he any good?

ok suppose you tell me what it is that i have said that is so confusing. take a look at the original post. i simply lay out some assumptions under which we could see nadal in the finals. we are still all the same people who though he had no chance to be in the finals at wimby again. and then he pushes federer on his very best surface to 5 sets and very nearly won.

once again the assumption: he has a 4-1 record against ferru. ferru has no weapons but can run all day but he has just spent over 4 hours in beating nalby. also nadal well experienced on a big stage and is very mentally tough. if the knees hold up, he will win. it is that simple. you probably feel exactly the same way.

secondly, i have to like his chances against chela or wawrinka. both, once again, just spent playing 5 setters and should they engage in another long match, nadal will be able to pick either one off with ease. especially chela who cant hurt him at all on any surface, nadal destroyed him in indian wells and at monte carlo and i mean destroyed.

the other side of the edger: i know djoker is playing well right now but he did spen5 nearly 5 hours in against stepanek. one more long match and he will be start feeling a little stale or tired. it happened in paris and it happened at wimby. he is getting fitter but still has some fitness issues. monaco has 3 clay titles this year and is quite consistent. a lot more consistent than del potro. it wont quite be a cake walk. and nw if he does have to play moya and moya keeps him out there a while, nadal will pick him off.

i didnt say he will win the tournament. i am saying with each additional match under his belt, the chances of his making a semifinal appearance improve.

all bets are off obviously if his knees get worse. what was so confusing?

[dmastous]

I'm so confused....

Nadal could win because he's the monster, but he could lose because he's injured.
Djokovic will win because he will be fitter because his road is easier, but he will lose because he has petered out in 2 grand slam quarters (not 1).
Moya is fit because he's got a fitness center in Mallorca, but he can't beat his buddy Nadal.


and, oh yeah, there's that other guy...... Federing, Federous, FEDERER, that's him Federer! Is he any good?

ok suppose you tell me what it is that i have said that is so confusing. take a look at the original post. i simply lay out some assumptions under which we could see nadal in the finals. we are still all the same people who though he had no chance to be in the finals at wimby again. and then he pushes federer on his very best surface to 5 sets and very nearly won.

once again the assumption: he has a 4-1 record against ferru. ferru has no weapons but can run all day but he has just spent over 4 hours in beating nalby. also nadal well experienced on a big stage and is very mentally tough. if the knees hold up, he will win. it is that simple. you probably feel exactly the same way.

secondly, i have to like his chances against chela or wawrinka. both, once again, just spent playing 5 setters and should they engage in another long match, nadal will be able to pick either one off with ease. especially chela who cant hurt him at all on any surface, nadal destroyed him in indian wells and at monte carlo and i mean destroyed.

the other side of the edger: i know djoker is playing well right now but he did spen5 nearly 5 hours in against stepanek. one more long match and he will be start feeling a little stale or tired. it happened in paris and it happened at wimby. he is getting fitter but still has some fitness issues. monaco has 3 clay titles this year and is quite consistent. a lot more consistent than del potro. it wont quite be a cake walk. and nw if he does have to play moya and moya keeps him out there a while, nadal will pick him off.

i didnt say he will win the tournament. i am saying with each additional match under his belt, the chances of his making a semifinal appearance improve.

all bets are off obviously if his knees get worse. what was so confusing?

Just cracking wise about the whole thing. Not one post or thought in specific. I don't think there is an answer, or at least there won't be until the matches are played. I think you all make good points, but at times contrading points (not just in this thread, but the whole this player should beat that player argument segment).

[sofico]

I'm so confused....

Nadal could win because he's the monster, but he could lose because he's injured.
Djokovic will win because he will be fitter because his road is easier, but he will lose because he has petered out in 2 grand slam quarters (not 1).
Moya is fit because he's got a fitness center in Mallorca, but he can't beat his buddy Nadal.


and, oh yeah, there's that other guy...... Federing, Federous, FEDERER, that's him Federer! Is he any good?

I don't think Rafa will win because he's the monster and blabla, he has a lot of things to improve on but not being fit makes things even worse. I don't know about Djoker. Hes playing very well and I don't think his draw is that easy, and he just got injured in Wimbly as many other played did, but here he seems with no problems
Moya has beaten Nadal once on hard last year, and Nadal is much younger than Moya.

I don't know what Fedex has to deal here. He'll probably make it to the finals and win the championship (but he's on the other side )

[sofico]

once again the assumption: he has a 4-1 record against ferru. ferru has no weapons but can run all day but he has just spent over 4 hours in beating nalby. also nadal well experienced on a big stage and is very mentally tough. if the knees hold up, he will win. it is that simple. you probably feel exactly the same way.

Actually, Ferru's only victory over Rafa was on hard. See, Ferru has more advantage than Rafa here.

[kittens25]

Djokovic was NOT tired for his FRench Open semi with Nadal.   He was just outplayed on the clay.  Nadal is a much better clay courter then Djokovic right now so of course he won easily, it had nothing to do with fatigue.   The first bit of nonsense.

Secondly Wimbledon was totally different then here.  Djokovic had to play a bunch of matches in a row day after day leading into the semis, not only some 5 setter or tough 4 setters but multiple consecutive days too.    Nothing like would happen here.

Also your talk of players playing 5 setters in a particular match making them tired for a match that would be from 4-8 days away is ridiculous as well.  If it was their very next match maybe, but with 1, 2, or even 3 matches in between it means nothing.

So basically it is alot of wishful thinking on your part with zero merit.  Also Monaco is also not better then Del Potro, and Moya will not give Djokovic a tough time at all if they play here.

[Clay Death]

I'm so confused....

Nadal could win because he's the monster, but he could lose because he's injured.
Djokovic will win because he will be fitter because his road is easier, but he will lose because he has petered out in 2 grand slam quarters (not 1).
Moya is fit because he's got a fitness center in Mallorca, but he can't beat his buddy Nadal.


and, oh yeah, there's that other guy...... Federing, Federous, FEDERER, that's him Federer! Is he any good?

ok suppose you tell me what it is that i have said that is so confusing. take a look at the original post. i simply lay out some assumptions under which we could see nadal in the finals. we are still all the same people who though he had no chance to be in the finals at wimby again. and then he pushes federer on his very best surface to 5 sets and very nearly won.

once again the assumption: he has a 4-1 record against ferru. ferru has no weapons but can run all day but he has just spent over 4 hours in beating nalby. also nadal well experienced on a big stage and is very mentally tough. if the knees hold up, he will win. it is that simple. you probably feel exactly the same way.

secondly, i have to like his chances against chela or wawrinka. both, once again, just spent playing 5 setters and should they engage in another long match, nadal will be able to pick either one off with ease. especially chela who cant hurt him at all on any surface, nadal destroyed him in indian wells and at monte carlo and i mean destroyed.

the other side of the edger: i know djoker is playing well right now but he did spen5 nearly 5 hours in against stepanek. one more long match and he will be start feeling a little stale or tired. it happened in paris and it happened at wimby. he is getting fitter but still has some fitness issues. monaco has 3 clay titles this year and is quite consistent. a lot more consistent than del potro. it wont quite be a cake walk. and nw if he does have to play moya and moya keeps him out there a while, nadal will pick him off.

i didnt say he will win the tournament. i am saying with each additional match under his belt, the chances of his making a semifinal appearance improve.

all bets are off obviously if his knees get worse. what was so confusing?

Just cracking wise about the whole thing. Not one post or thought in specific. I don't think there is an answer, or at least there won't be until the matches are played. I think you all make good points, but at times contrading points (not just in this thread, but the whole this player should beat that player argument segment).

i dont understand what it is that you find confusing here. let me make it even simpler: there is an outside chance nadal could be in the semis and may even be in the finals.

federer was just asked this very question: he was asked who would win the title if he was not to win it. do you know what his answer was? or do you even want to know?

i know you will come back and tell me all this is too confusing. roger federer said that he thought that nadal would win the title if he was, somehow, not to win it. now why do you think he said that? he knows nadal and his game better than anybody on the planet.

federer also added that he thought that nadal is lot better than djokovic on any surface. and i am not making this up. all i did was lay out some assumptions under which he could be in the finals he just might be. all that has to happen is for his knees to hold up and he needs to catch a clightly tired djokovic in the semis.

simpe stuff man. just ask roger federer. me, you just find too confusing.

[sofico]

federer was just asked this very question: he was asked who would win the title if he was not to win it. do you know what his answer was? or do you even want to know?

i know you will come back and tell me all this is too confusing. roger federer said that he thought that nadal would win the title if he was, somehow, not to win it. now why do you think he said that? he knows nadal and his game better than anybody on the planet.

federer also added that he thought that nadal is lot better than djokovic on any surface. and i am not making this up. all i did was lay out some assumptions under which he could be in the finals he just might be. all that has to happen is for his knees to hold up and he needs to catch a clightly tired djokovic in the semis.

simpe stuff man. just ask roger federer. me, you just find too confusing.

Well, I gotta say(write) that Fedex's got me confused with this. I don't think he believes it. He knows, and WE KNOW that Rafa is not  one of the greatest harcourt players. I think Rafa may be better thank Djoker even on grass ( and still I'm not so conviced about this because the only match they had, Djoker was injured and retired), but here Djoker is showing better game than Rafa, so I don't Fedex thinks that this is true.

[sid]

For me if Nadal is fit & well he beats Ferrer,the last time Ferrer beat Nadal was 2004.Here is there head to head.

2007 Barcelona
Spain Clay S Nadal 7-5 6-1
Stats  
2005 Roland Garros
France Clay Q Nadal 7-5 6-2 6-0
Stats  
2005 ATP Masters Series Rome
Italy Clay S Nadal 4-6 6-4 7-5
Stats  
2005 ATP Masters Series Miami
FL, U.S.A. Hard S Nadal 6-4 6-3
Stats  
2004 Stuttgart
Germany Clay Q Ferrer 6-3 6-7(3) 7-5
Stats  

To me wether its clay or hard court Nadal wins 8 or 9 times out of 10.
sid