Topic: ATP - 2008 AO Thread

[dmastous]

How about Gonzalez? No one seem to mention this guy yet. He might give us a real shock like last year. Too bad he might meet Roger in the early rounds.

He picked it up a bit towards the end of last year, so I think he's a factor. But I wouldn't put much faith in him.

[Clay Death]

The toughest quarter is Djoker's, followed by Roger's, then probably the Gasquet/Murray/Youznhy/Davydenko quarter, then lastly Roddick/Rafa.  The bottom half is the easiest.  I honestly don't see too much in the way of the Rafa/Roddick QF.  Roger has a trickier route and Djoker has a really tough one.  I mean, Djoker has Dima, Hewitt, Baghs, Nalby, JC Ferrero, Stepanek, and Ferrer!  If I remember correctly, he had the toughest quarter in NY as well.

Exactly my thoughts too.  Djokers is the toughest.  Nadal has the easiest.  Its going to be interesting.  Herc is probably jumping with joy after looking at the draw

not really. damn near every match is a huge effort for him on hard courts. looks like the 4th round is probably the end of the line for him. there is no way he can make a dent in roddick`s serve on these newer, faster hard courts. indian wells was a different story.

 indian wells hard courts were playing really slow and nadal had not been hit with his injury setbacks then.

[BGT]

Roddick has to be happy to be in Nadal's quarter.   He has more chance to beat Nadal on a hard court then Federer or Djokovic.  Although ideally he would probably rather be in Davydenko's quarter who is the easiest of all for him of the top 4.

I listened to the draw on AO Radio. After I heard that Andy was the 5-8 seed in Nadal's quarter, I was so happy!! I was literally shaking so much I could barely type. I have never had a physical reaction over Andy... besides the two times I cried.

[Dallas]

This is exciting!  I'm looking forward to the tournament.  I have been off work since December 21 and I go back on Monday!  Unfortunately, I wish I was off for the next 2 weeks because I'm going to be tired and sleepy from staying up watching late night matches!  Uhm...I wonder if I can get sick but not sick?

[BGT]

This is exciting!  I'm looking forward to the tournament.  I have been off work since December 21 and I go back on Monday!  Unfortunately, I wish I was off for the next 2 weeks because I'm going to be tired and sleepy from staying up watching late night matches!  Uhm...I wonder if I can get sick but not sick?

I had a biology teacher who once said, "I'm going to be out sick two weeks from now so I won't be here. I'll be in Miami."

EDIT: I think the best first round match would have been Federer vs Safin. Federer with no match practice, and Safin playing good tennis by his own admission. How would you have liked that Dallas??

[pawan89]

This is exciting!  I'm looking forward to the tournament.  I have been off work since December 21 and I go back on Monday!  Unfortunately, I wish I was off for the next 2 weeks because I'm going to be tired and sleepy from staying up watching late night matches!  Uhm...I wonder if I can get sick but not sick?

I had a biology teacher who once said, "I'm going to be out sick two weeks from now so I won't be here. I'll be in Miami."

EDIT: I think the best first round match would have been Federer vs Safin. Federer with no match practice, and Safin playing good tennis by his own admission. How would you have liked that Dallas??

Safin would collapse. He'd start yelling "for once I am actually playing well in so many years and you put me up against this bastard? I am not playing!"
Besides, Safin is just as capable of palying a horrendous match on a good form as Roger is of playing a classic match with no match practice

[Dallas]

This is exciting!  I'm looking forward to the tournament.  I have been off work since December 21 and I go back on Monday!  Unfortunately, I wish I was off for the next 2 weeks because I'm going to be tired and sleepy from staying up watching late night matches!  Uhm...I wonder if I can get sick but not sick?

I had a biology teacher who once said, "I'm going to be out sick two weeks from now so I won't be here. I'll be in Miami."

EDIT: I think the best first round match would have been Federer vs Safin. Federer with no match practice, and Safin playing good tennis by his own admission. How would you have liked that Dallas??

That would have been fine because in spite of everyone thinking that Safin is a "Federer" killer, the H2H is still 8-2 in Roger'a favor so I would have liked his chances!!!

[BGT]

This is exciting!  I'm looking forward to the tournament.  I have been off work since December 21 and I go back on Monday!  Unfortunately, I wish I was off for the next 2 weeks because I'm going to be tired and sleepy from staying up watching late night matches!  Uhm...I wonder if I can get sick but not sick?

I had a biology teacher who once said, "I'm going to be out sick two weeks from now so I won't be here. I'll be in Miami."

EDIT: I think the best first round match would have been Federer vs Safin. Federer with no match practice, and Safin playing good tennis by his own admission. How would you have liked that Dallas??

That would have been fine because in spite of everyone thinking that Safin is a "Federer" killer, the H2H is still 8-2 in Roger'a favor so I would have liked his chances!!!

True. How do you feel about Rafa's draw? ooops, I mean Raja's draw?

[tennisfan78]

Welcome back Dallas. Hope you have had a good trip to Vegas. Did you gain any money gambling??

[Dallas]

Welcome back Dallas. Hope you have had a good trip to Vegas. Did you gain any money gambling??

    Uhm, no!

And bgt, I think Nadal has a great draw in the early rounds but who knows what will happen during this first grand slam!   I'm sure Andy R is glad to be on the 'other side', if you know what I mean!

[barbadosan]

At least Roger didn't end up with BOTH Isner and Karlovic this time... not that it would be a major problem, but it just seems as they tag team him an awful lot 

[Dallas]

At least Roger didn't end up with BOTH Isner and Karlovic this time... not that it would be a major problem, but it just seems as they tag team him an awful lot 

by the way...thanks for posting those pictures of Roger earlier.  I feel  a little better now seeing him practicing and seemingly in good spirits after this illness.

[barbadosan]

ok ok.. you'll figure out why I'm posting this here from another forum  

"The balls fluff up very easy at the moment... I was there for qualifying yesterday and the day before and will be at the Aussie Open everyday including qualifying. The balls fluff up easily because as someone said the sandpaperish texture on the surface. This is probably why the players think it is slower. When the balls are new- the balls fly off the string... Slice is more effective on this surface because of the lower bounce. THis suface shoots through better than Rebound ace it seems."

[BGT]

My analysis.. I've actually never done one before so bear with me. No predictions because I'm never right

Key First Round Matches

- Santoro vs Isner: can the crafty Frenchman take out John the Steel Drivin' Man? (wasn't that a fantasy character like Paul Bunyon??)

- Querrey vs O. Rochus: Little Oli seems to have a good record over the big guys. I'd like to see Sam try to out hit the guy who can get to almost everything.

- Safin vs Gulbis: young vs old.. amateur vs experienced... this will be a telling match for both players

- Tsonga vs Murray: imho, the player with the best chance to take him before the 4th round


** From here on out, it's pure speculation and (probably wrong) predictions

Key Second Round Matches

- Federer vs Santoro/Isner: two of the players who provided some of Fed's most entertaining matches at the USO in the past few years. This'll be fun to watch no matter Fed's opponent, but I expect him to get through

- Baghs vs Safin: great match, lots of backhand rallies

- Gasquet vs Lopez: Richie can do poorly against big serves. The Lopez forehand/Gasquet backhand rallies will be beautiful.

- Roddick vs Young: this is what Young (and American tennis fans!!) have been waiting for.. the chance to see if he can roll with the big dogs. Not sure if he can handle Andy's serve and power, but it'll give him experience.

Key Third Round Matches

- Hewitt vs Baghs/Safin/Gulbis: repeat 06 Wimbledon quarterfinal, 05 AO final, and never before played

- Roddick vs Korolev: technically, Zhenyia has to get past Kohlshreiber in the 2nd round, but I'm a Korolover and I hope he gets through so I can finally see him play live!!

- Mathieu vs Moya: imo, the winner will have great chance against Rafa in the 4th round

Key Fourth Round Matches

- Federer vs Berdych: this is where it'll start to get difficult for Fed and by difficult I mean he'll probably have to save a break point or two. Fed'll have no problem returning serve and will move on to his next victim.. I mean, opponent.

- Blake vs Gonzo: what's similar between these two players' games?? imo, everything. big hitting, big forehands, big backhands, and a lot of running... i'm expecting a long 5 setter

- Murray vs Richie: if Tsonga doesn't take him, this'll be my favorite 4th round match besides the ones above and below this. Murray was just a set away from qualifying for the TMC in 2007. Gasquet wants to prove his #8 seeding isn't a fluke.

- Moya vs Nadal: Chennai 08 semi.. nuff said

Quarterfinal Matches

- Federer vs Gonzo: I hope it will be closer than their final

- Gasquet vs Davydenko: Richie makes it to his second career GS semi

- Djokovic vs Nalbandian/Ferrer: I haven't mentioned any of these guys because I already penciled them into this round. If Gonzo can't take him out, the winner of this match will be tough for Feds

- Roddick vs Moya/Nadal: a Roddick/Nadal quarter would easily be the most hyped out of them all, but if Rafa's on fire and Andy's serve is off, it'll be a quick flight back to Texas. If Rafa is showing any weakness, and Andy is playing like he has been in Kooyong ( he has been playing well there!!) this be a veeeeeeeery competitive match

-----------

That's where I'm stopping. Overall, this will be a very good Australian Open (including the women's top half, only the top half).

[sid]

ok ok.. you'll figure out why I'm posting this here from another forum  

"The balls fluff up very easy at the moment... I was there for qualifying yesterday and the day before and will be at the Aussie Open everyday including qualifying. The balls fluff up easily because as someone said the sandpaperish texture on the surface. This is probably why the players think it is slower. When the balls are new- the balls fly off the string... Slice is more effective on this surface because of the lower bounce. THis suface shoots through better than Rebound ace it seems."

Hmmmm im deep in thought atm on draw,my man Murray has what i call a rough first round draw.( Slice is more effective on this surface because of the lower bounce)Murray will come though this,then draw not so bad.Chela Murray has done good v in the past.Gasquet if thay meet Murray needs 2 trun the tabels round.

[pawan89]

nice analysis bgt! I agree on most of them too. I just don't think Gasquet can go past Murray. Also, I'd make Roddick the favourite over Rafa, Roddick's playing well and he really needs to beat Rafa when he's vulnerable to safe face.

[Clay Death]

nice analysis bgt! I agree on most of them too. I just don't think Gasquet can go past Murray. Also, I'd make Roddick the favourite over Rafa, Roddick's playing well and he really needs to beat Rafa when he's vulnerable to safe face.

so for roddick to save face, he has to beat an injured and not a very good hard court player.

that makes a lot of sense.

[Dallas]

nice analysis bgt! I agree on most of them too. I just don't think Gasquet can go past Murray. Also, I'd make Roddick the favourite over Rafa, Roddick's playing well and he really needs to beat Rafa when he's vulnerable to safe face.

With the way Nadal has played lately on hard court - I agree with this statement as well.

[pawan89]

nice analysis bgt! I agree on most of them too. I just don't think Gasquet can go past Murray. Also, I'd make Roddick the favourite over Rafa, Roddick's playing well and he really needs to beat Rafa when he's vulnerable to safe face.

so for roddick to save face, he has to beat an injured and not a very good hard court player.

that makes a lot of sense.

well what's the other thing that can happen - he loses to an injured and not very good hard court player, now that's just plain shameful for someone of Roddick's status. hence, yes that does indeed make sense  
Besides, this is more wishful thinking than not. what is more accurate is i'd like to make Roddick the favourite but despite everything you say about Nadal, I think as long as Nadal's not limping and is not on crutches, Roddick can book his ticket home.. to save face  

[pawan89]

nice analysis bgt! I agree on most of them too. I just don't think Gasquet can go past Murray. Also, I'd make Roddick the favourite over Rafa, Roddick's playing well and he really needs to beat Rafa when he's vulnerable to safe face.

With the way Nadal has played lately on hard court - I agree with this statement as well.

yeah, you know. but you see I made Roddick the clearest favourite last year in Miami. and it was the same story there, Nadal had lost to malisse early on and then he was injured and tired for the AO quarterfinal.. and roddick was on his great roll with Connors and all that, and it was Miami like Roddicks home turf or something. and Roddick was humiliated.