I'm with Novak all the way. Nole has had enough rest from prev tourney so I think he'll be ready. He's not the kind to let rest a 2nd round defeat (in Miami) so he's definitely gonna come back with more fervour, plus there's homegrd advantage so he'll be more comfortable here (i think - not sure where nadal resides). I hope he'll take this Monte Carlos title even though Nadal may be the king of clay. i'm looking for an upset here.
but even if he loses, it'll spur him to work harder into Roland Garros which can only be a good thing.
if he wins, i hope he don't get too complacent (like Miami).. but work his way up in Roland Garros anyhow with that self-confidence he has.